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Old 02-16-2010, 06:35 PM
  #28961  
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Originally Posted by johnso29
Don't really see how you come to this conclusion. We will have more flying with less bodies then last year, & no furloughs then.

I honestly think your 'predictions' have less to do with history & more with your dislike for the current administration. History writes itself, & is far from predictable. Please toss your fear grenades elsewhere.
Fair enough, but debt burden is huge. I would suggest a dry read:
The Forth Turning. It is a dry read, and even the author admit that the conclusion is up to the human spirit. Anywho, it is a good read, and makes you realize that humans make the same decisions time and time again.
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Old 02-16-2010, 06:36 PM
  #28962  
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So much for this thread being dead!
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Old 02-16-2010, 06:49 PM
  #28963  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
Super;
Part of the forecasting is determining the next downturn. Many think that it will be prior to 2012, FWIW, and because of that they need to sharp shoot the numbers.

There is/are diverging results of the modeling, and until they start pointing in the same direction caution will be taken.
I personally don't see 2010 being a good year for us (DAL or the country). Just as bad as the housing market hit our banks, the commercial real estate market rears its ugly head starting this summer. Already, nearly 50% of those loans have defaulted (or so I heard on the news this morning). This will put a tremendous strain on the already fragile financial system. Many banks will not survive it because they are too far leveraged into these bad loans. This can very easily be the tip of the iceberg for a double-dip recession. Don't forget, we still lost 400,000 jobs last month.

Finally, what's scary is that our federal government can not, and is not taking in enough money to pay the interest on the debt they've created. Considering they can print money, they probably will. But China has warned use officially three times now not to do that. Equally worrisome is that China recently decided not to finance as much of our debt as they usually do. Foreigners cut Treasury stakes; rates could rise - Yahoo! Finance

That's going to put our currency in a tailspin when the federal government starts printing money in order to pay the debt that we owe.
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Old 02-16-2010, 06:51 PM
  #28964  
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Originally Posted by johnso29
Don't really see how you come to this conclusion. We will have more flying with less bodies then last year, & no furloughs then.

I honestly think your 'predictions' have less to do with history & more with your dislike for the current administration. History writes itself, & is far from predictable. Please toss your fear grenades elsewhere.
+1

Ever hear of pilot investors?

If I believed everything I read on aviation forums regarding the economy I'd move to a bunker while hoarding food, guns/ammo and gold. And I would have done it in 2002.

Of course if I was that cynical I probably would have been a helicopter pilot! (insert Harry Reasoner article here...)


btw, I've got plenty of the "essentials" should the zombies attack!
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Old 02-16-2010, 06:55 PM
  #28965  
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...................



Are we going to have to pull out the Glenn Beck chalkboard and connect the dots?!?
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Old 02-16-2010, 06:58 PM
  #28966  
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Originally Posted by keenster
So, I do not see the retirements starting as you state above except the occaisional 60 year guy that will go. I am supprized at the number of over 60 guys hanging around.
I'm not surprised at all - the former NWA guys kept saying before the SLI "oh, all these guys are going to retire prior to 65 - you'll see. That's why we need credit for their retirements."

Hogwash - when a guy at the top of the seniority list looks what how much they work vs how much they bring in vs the mortgage, boat payments and things a 12-year widebody Captain can get with his paycheck - why would they leave?
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Old 02-16-2010, 07:02 PM
  #28967  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
Fair enough, but debt burden is huge. I would suggest a dry read:
The Forth Turning. It is a dry read, and even the author admit that the conclusion is up to the human spirit. Anywho, it is a good read, and makes you realize that humans make the same decisions time and time again.
And yet life continues. We make it work. We have in the past, & we will again.
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Old 02-16-2010, 07:15 PM
  #28968  
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Originally Posted by johnso29
And yet life continues. We make it work. We have in the past, & we will again.
True.

And it gives me the reason to post this:



Actually, it didn't need to be posted. It serves as a warning for many of us, or a nation as a whole, but really I thought it was funny and decided to post it even if it were not as pertinent as a pic posted on this thread should be.
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Old 02-16-2010, 07:21 PM
  #28969  
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A terrific read is Amity Shlaes The Forgotten Man: A History of the Great Depression. Reading about the prelude to the Great Depression is like Deja Vu all over again. I'm not throwing fear grenades Johnson, just reading the historical tea leaves. Hope I'm wrong and If I am I will gladly buy you a Guinness at the Irish Pub in DTW.

I think Delta's business plan is the best of all the airlines and based on projections should be wildly profitable. I just don't think those projections are going to hold out over the next year.
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Old 02-16-2010, 07:37 PM
  #28970  
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Originally Posted by iaflyer
I'm not surprised at all - the former NWA guys kept saying before the SLI "oh, all these guys are going to retire prior to 65 - you'll see. That's why we need credit for their retirements."

Hogwash - when a guy at the top of the seniority list looks what how much they work vs how much they bring in vs the mortgage, boat payments and things a 12-year widebody Captain can get with his paycheck - why would they leave?
the retirement numbers dont change, the only question is when each will drop off. It may not happen right at 60 but the argument was always there that the majority of the nearest term retirements were on the NWA side. That argument is pointless now. Kinda like the argument that the DAL side should get credit for all of the junior guys being on the heavies. point is we're all the same side now and we all gain and lose together now.
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