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Old 01-11-2010, 06:36 AM
  #24251  
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America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels
December was the worst month for US unemployment since the Great Recession began.
uk-telegraph

...The labour force contracted by 661,000. This did not show up in the headline jobless rate because so many Americans dropped out of the system. The broad U6 category of unemployment rose to 17.3pc. That is the one that matters.

Wall Street rallied. Bulls hope that weak jobs data will postpone monetary tightening: a silver lining in every catastrophe, or perhaps a further exhibit of market infantilism...

Oil price hits 15-month high on demand from China
BBC News - ‎38 minutes ago‎
Oil prices have continued their steady rise in 2010, hitting a fresh 15-month high of nearly $84 a barrel. US crude oil for February delivery was up 93 ...
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Old 01-11-2010, 06:42 AM
  #24252  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
Check;

Who pays our paycheck? Who is still losing billions a year? Yep, one in the same.
I agree that the company does not need to make billions to pay us what we are worth, but they cannot lose billions either. They need to create a business plan that can survive in this type of competitive market. I have looked at these JV's with our a morsel of personal agenda. Here is what I see:

First, I would love it if we could just fly all of the routes and not have any JV's but in this day and age, that is just a dream and will never happen. So how do we sit their and trap as many of the customers that we are aiming to trap? Easy JV's.
AF-KLM is a historic type of business and Pilots Association type of deal. It involves three unions and three business entities. It is making 12 billion dollars in revenue a year. Yes, we could have made some of our premium revenue with out them, but nothing close to what we are making now. That in the end is good for the business, and should be good for us.
I would like to take it one step farther than the AF deal and make the company pay us a percentage of the revenue for agreeing to the terms of the JV.
Back to the AF deal. We have three (actually four if you include the second pilot union at AF) pilot unions that have stuck a deal to divide the North Atlantic pie up. We got just better than half that growth. Not bad, not great, but better than the other three groups. ( Perspective, not what I want here) When the market grows I bet we see some previous or current routes flown by them but over half have to be flown by us. It is inclusive scope and I give our MEC kudos for getting that type of language.
Fast forward to the JAL deal. Two companies and fighting for one company who has the unwavering backing of a government that no matter how dire the situation is will not lose face for the Japanese people. Ugly, not exactly fair? Yep, but it is what it is.
With that in mind, lets look at what we as a business and we as an association need to be mindful of.
First, Japan and the US just signed an Open-Skies Agreement that is anything but open. It is one sided, and our Fifth Freedom Rights are basically worthless. As an association we have wording in our PWA that states how many slots have to operate by us, but the company many have to abandon them if we do not gain a Domestic Japanese business partner. Em are the ugly facts. That for you and I translates in to no hiring, loss of jobs and probably a few furlough. Not going for shock value here, just reality.
Second, the Japanese economy is second only to ours, and the Chinese economy will be the largest in the next ten years, so it is very mindful of a pilot union to realize that we need to connect all of this premium cargo and passenger traffic with a domestic airline. DAL needs JAL more than JAL needs us.
I hope that we do not have to give away the farm, and from what I am seeing this deal will be really good in terms of long term sustainable growth in the form of seats for the pilots of Delta Air Lines. If we are successful in getting a partnership with an airline that is going to cut as they say they are going to cut, then I am all for it. Why? It makes business sense. When it generates money for Delta it puts our demands for overall compensation in to perspective.

Lets look at what you are stating in regards to the MEC. I am in utter agreement that we need to get better wagers, and agree with PG that we need to figure out a plan to do it. Since the no longer let pilot go in the bank much less touch the money, we need to realize that DAL needs to probably make over 35 billion a year in revenue to pay down its liabilities and pay us what we are worth. These two JV's will make that a very real possibility. I do not want to be the biggest airline, just the best and most financially successful.
I also think, that barring maybe one more airline (after JAL) in particular we should be very careful of any more JV's. We have the globe covered now. This should set the business up nicely.
In 2012 this plan that they are working on should set us up nicely to have better passenger connect options and betting pricing power than any other airline out there. That my friend equates to profit, or paying down of debt, or new aircraft purchases. That all equates to the ability to demand and receive the C2K+... that every one wants.

In the end we want the same things, but I will side with PG in the fact that we as pilots need to look at the whole pie and realize that DAL probably pays more in interest a year than they pay us. We need to pay down debt from mistakes in the past, we need to renew our fleet, and we need to have a business plan that can sustain the airline in good times and in bad. When that happens, and we were a part of it, we BETTER get compensated for our worth.

I do not disagree with you at all. I want to see us hire, make 400K a year, get 20% in our DC, have a catchup for the older guys, myself upgrade and make money, etc. It is just very hard to do that with a failed business plan.
You do a fantastic job vetting management's talking points and talking yourself out of a raise. I wouldn't feel bad though, as there is a faction at every airline that does the same thing. Everyone that complains about current pay and work rules need not look any further than the closest mirror.

The fact is, should all airline pilots demand the same pay that the DAL pilots were making 9 years ago, we would all be on the same page give or take a couple of years. AA's, UAL's, CAL's contract are amendable, and DAL's is coming up soon. There would be some variations in work rules, but overall it would be a wash. With all pilots making the same rates, no airline would be "uncompetitive." That term "competitive" is a management control word, meant to lower your expectations through fear for your job and livelihood.

This line of thinking also gives a false weight to the impact of the pilots contract - as if the pilot contract alone is enough to sink an airline. Can you name an airline that was driven to insolvency because the pilots made too much money? Second, if low pilot costs are the answer, why did so many airlines like Skybus go out of business, and why is a top-paying airline like WN thriving?

Another issue to consider is how well of a job your management is doing running the operation. Let's say you accept a concessionary contract and save the airline $250 million in costs. Now the airline goes out and blows a $100MM fuel hedge contract, pays the executives $100MM in bonuses, blows a huge wad on self-inflicted "operational issues" etc.. What have you really accomplished by accepting a concessionary contract? All you have really done is subsidize a shoddy management team, and helped to minimize the damage and embarrassment of their incompetent management. This is what is going on at my airline. What good has our massive concession of 2003 done for us? NOTHING. They have only allowed a shoddy management team to stay in office YEARS longer than they should have.

When you say that the airline is losing "billions", are you sure? What do you know about accounting? If you had a corporation, and wanted to hide profits, could you show a huge "loss" with an army of accountants and actuaries at your disposal? I'll bet you could.

A couple of years ago, my airline said we were 23 billion in debt. We had pilots pulling their hair out and screaming from the rooftops that we needed massive concessions just to keep the company solvent. After several losing quarters, we were suddenly 13 billion in debt. $10 BILLION in debt vanished overnight. To this day, none of the concessionaires can explain how that happened. Yet they were SO SURE that we were doomed without the pilots "saving" the airline through concessions. (BTW, the executives enjoyed massive bonuses the whole time the airline was "sinking")

The last point I will touch on is the assuredness so many pilots have on these global business ventures that are being set up by management. How do you know that this hook-up is in your best interest? IOW, what experience and/or expertise do you have in the field of airline operations, other than gut feelings and/or emotion. You are trusting management, Flounder. Does that sound like a safe plan? Do you also trust the analysts too? Guys like Mike Boyd, that said AA's acquisition of TWA would be the "crown jewel" in our operation? You trust guys like Dick Anderson and Doug Steenland?

You should be looking at all of these proposals with a cynical eye, not an optimistic one. What has history taught you? When has management ever done you a favor? Is their long-term goals in YOUR interest, or in THEIR interest? Will they cash out to the tune of tens of millions, and leave you on a furlough list?

Face it - most of the "absolutes" on this board are just OPINION, and not based upon anything except EMOTION. It is management's job to make sure they facilitate this, and they have done a masterful job. Your OPINION and $1.89 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
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Old 01-11-2010, 06:43 AM
  #24253  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
The cosign of premium pay is that it requires less pilots to staff an airline because the ones that are here will work more. It does cost less to pay you premium pay than it does to hire four extra pilots. Just keep that in mind.

I guess you haven't coordinated these statements with the former NWA ALPA. While furloughing, they negotiated for the heavy drivers pick up additional flying and sent a message to the masses that flying overtime (x 1.5 pay over 80) does NOT effect staffing. Not aiming at you ACL, just reminding some redtailers what ALPA did for the furloughed brothers. After all, they wanted to ensure the furloughed guys had well paying jobs to return to.

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Old 01-11-2010, 06:44 AM
  #24254  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
If I have the credibility that many state, they will see these JV's for what they are. Of course no one wants them, but in this adversarial market they are a necessary evil. ( I do not like em either as I want it all, but they provide us a unparalleled revenue stream The only way around these is to merger with AF. Now how many of you are excited to take that one on? Just what I though, probably no one)
We could get in to code shares, but that is a totally different debate.
I didn't say I was against the JVs and codesharing.
I fully support them if we get our fair share of the flying.
I just want to get paid.

Bankruptcy is obviously over. Our recovery has been stunning.
We're so financially strong we're buying big stakes in Japanese airlines.
Yet our bankruptcy pay runs to 2013? (2014-15?)
The long duration date of this BK contract was a big mistake. But I think we have sufficient leverage in these LOAs to get some contractual reconstruction before Section 6 talks open.

Maybe vacation days worth 3:45. Starting April 1.
Build from there.

Last edited by Check Essential; 01-11-2010 at 06:54 AM.
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Old 01-11-2010, 06:49 AM
  #24255  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
It is what it is. I try to point out the facts.

If I have the credibility that many state, they will see these JV's for what they are. Of course no one wants them, but in this adversarial market they are a necessary evil. ( I do not like em either as I want it all, but they provide us a unparalleled revenue stream The only way around these is to merger with AF. Now how many of you are excited to take that one on? Just what I though, probably no one)

We could get in to code shares, but that is a totally different debate.
NWA/KLM were the fathers of such JVs. I think most on the NWA side realize the benefits from such an agreement.

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Old 01-11-2010, 06:53 AM
  #24256  
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Originally Posted by Phlying Phallus
You do a fantastic job vetting management's talking points and talking yourself out of a raise.
Excellent on all points - love it -please accept my invitation to be a guest speaker at all future Delta MEC/LEC/lounge visits/road shows. Will you consider running for our negociating committee?
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Old 01-11-2010, 06:57 AM
  #24257  
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Originally Posted by Check Essential
You could be waiting a very long time for DAL to be solidly profitable.
Airlines have been running without profits since Orville and Wilbur.
We're kinda like a public utility.
Fact is, they can pay us more without going back into Chapter 11.

Latest news says JAL won't be taking our $1 billion after all.

The company can afford to help us out a bit before 2013.

I am not saying that they cannot pay us more, my point is that with billions a year in losses the time it will take for them to agree to the rates we want will be measured in parts of decades not years.
Simple fact is we agreed to these rates and our PWA only becomes amendable, The RLA is for now not going anywhere, and the new Administration has stated no airline strikes. What motivation does the company have to pay us one cent more? NONE.
If we (not by giving them our shirt, but by not thwarting good sustainable business decisions) allow an agreement like JAL to transpire where our flow of top dollar traffic goes up by a magnitude of five to ten, then the business is able to pay off some of that 17.5 billion in debt, buy new airframes, grow the business, etc, and become willing to truly sit at the table and negotiation a contract that compensates you for what you are worth.
As much as I would LOVE to ignore all of the stupid business decision that this company has made (too many to list), the simple fact is that what I see them doing is very good for us. I am looking at this whole AF/KLM, and JAL deal as setting the ground work for a super carrier that will have no issue competing with anyone anywhere. That means that there are better chances that we will get a contract we want, no one we can just barely live with.

What do you think will happen to all of those new international flights to Asia, and the NRT hub if JAL turns their back on us?

Initially I see a ton of growth for us and another run at a different Asian carrier. That appears great for you and I, but it is the business fighting to stay alive in the worlds second biggest economy. It will prove very expensive and unsustainable unless we win someone like ANA. (Lot shot)
Fast forward to the time it takes for these actions to be rationalized. We have hired probably over 1000 pilots to try an win the East, and when it fails, we will cut a ton of flying, possible furlough, and have super stagnation and backward movement. Dramatic, yes, but very real.

Go to 2012 when we open our contract, take my worst case about, and just think about our chances at the table. We will be working for an airline that probably will have over 25 billion an debt and half of a well thought out plan working. Our feed to these flights will be gone, the international flights will be gone, and the dominoes will keep falling. In effect we will be in the same financial shape we were in 2003-2005 but as twice the size and twice the debt. We will pull about 23 billion a year in revenue and that will just not pay the bills. The giant will be a fallin.

I know this is probably just too dramatic for many of you, but it is the ugly side of getting our butts kicked in Asia.

I do think that we are going to get JAL.

As a few have very vaguely referenced on here, the other option besides JAL is very costly and very very risky. Well I just spelled it out for ya.
If you want to make C2K or have a half a-- chance of getting it, get on you knees and pray that we get the JAL deal.
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Old 01-11-2010, 06:59 AM
  #24258  
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Originally Posted by Professor
And once again, we are the World's largest pilots union now. Lets start acting like it (and that isn't to say DALPA isn't doing its job, we just became the largest so they have about 12 more months in my opinion to start throwing some weight around).
"The RMS Titanic was an Olympic-class passenger liner owned by British shipping company White Star Line and built at the Harland and Wolff shipyard in Belfast, Ireland. At the time of her construction, she was the largest passenger steamship in the world."

"LZ 129 Hindenburg (Deutsches Luftschiff Zeppelin #129; Registration: D-LZ 129) was a large German commercial passenger-carrying rigid airship, the lead ship of the Hindenburg class, the largest flying machines of any kind (by dimension) ever built..."


I'm not sure size is relevant...

We are definitely NOT the most profitable. THAT'S what permits us to exert leverage to extract higher wages. See LUV, FDX, UPS as exhibits 1, 2, and 3, respectively.

Last edited by Pineapple Guy; 01-11-2010 at 07:27 AM.
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Old 01-11-2010, 07:04 AM
  #24259  
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Originally Posted by Phlying Phallus
You do a fantastic job vetting management's talking points and talking yourself out of a raise. I wouldn't feel bad though, as there is a faction at every airline that does the same thing. Everyone that complains about current pay and work rules need not look any further than the closest mirror.

The fact is, should all airline pilots demand the same pay that the DAL pilots were making 9 years ago, we would all be on the same page give or take a couple of years. AA's, UAL's, CAL's contract are amendable, and DAL's is coming up soon. There would be some variations in work rules, but overall it would be a wash. With all pilots making the same rates, no airline would be "uncompetitive." That term "competitive" is a management control word, meant to lower your expectations through fear for your job and livelihood.

This line of thinking also gives a false weight to the impact of the pilots contract - as if the pilot contract alone is enough to sink an airline. Can you name an airline that was driven to insolvency because the pilots made too much money? Second, if low pilot costs are the answer, why did so many airlines like Skybus go out of business, and why is a top-paying airline like WN thriving?

Another issue to consider is how well of a job your management is doing running the operation. Let's say you accept a concessionary contract and save the airline $250 million in costs. Now the airline goes out and blows a $100MM fuel hedge contract, pays the executives $100MM in bonuses, blows a huge wad on self-inflicted "operational issues" etc.. What have you really accomplished by accepting a concessionary contract? All you have really done is subsidize a shoddy management team, and helped to minimize the damage and embarrassment of their incompetent management. This is what is going on at my airline. What good has our massive concession of 2003 done for us? NOTHING. They have only allowed a shoddy management team to stay in office YEARS longer than they should have.

When you say that the airline is losing "billions", are you sure? What do you know about accounting? If you had a corporation, and wanted to hide profits, could you show a huge "loss" with an army of accountants and actuaries at your disposal? I'll bet you could.

A couple of years ago, my airline said we were 23 billion in debt. We had pilots pulling their hair out and screaming from the rooftops that we needed massive concessions just to keep the company solvent. After several losing quarters, we were suddenly 13 billion in debt. $10 BILLION in debt vanished overnight. To this day, none of the concessionaires can explain how that happened. Yet they were SO SURE that we were doomed without the pilots "saving" the airline through concessions. (BTW, the executives enjoyed massive bonuses the whole time the airline was "sinking")

The last point I will touch on is the assuredness so many pilots have on these global business ventures that are being set up by management. How do you know that this hook-up is in your best interest? IOW, what experience and/or expertise do you have in the field of airline operations, other than gut feelings and/or emotion. You are trusting management, Flounder. Does that sound like a safe plan? Do you also trust the analysts too? Guys like Mike Boyd, that said AA's acquisition of TWA would be the "crown jewel" in our operation? You trust guys like Dick Anderson and Doug Steenland?

You should be looking at all of these proposals with a cynical eye, not an optimistic one. What has history taught you? When has management ever done you a favor? Is their long-term goals in YOUR interest, or in THEIR interest? Will they cash out to the tune of tens of millions, and leave you on a furlough list?

Face it - most of the "absolutes" on this board are just OPINION, and not based upon anything except EMOTION. It is management's job to make sure they facilitate this, and they have done a masterful job. Your OPINION and $1.89 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

I will make a few points to save 50 posts.

1) Our pay is a part of the overall cost of an airline, but I do not think it will make or break it. The debt burden we have will.
2) I do not like where we are on our compensation and want a mid term uptick.
3) I am not making management points, what I am doing is stating a business case and how it pertains to each and every seat here.
4) Largest sustainable network equates to largest sustainable PWA.
5) For check:
I want to see many things improved, and there are many on the MEC that do not want to open section six till a few more things are done. Wise choice when you have the big picture.
6) Scope sale is done done done.
7) In reference to one, I wholeheartedly agree that management uses a pilot group and their self elevated beleif in their importance against them.
8) We are labor, but not the labor of my Grandpa's GM
9) To get the pay you want you need to sit there and realize that this is a for profit business and to make great wages you need to have a business that will survive.
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Old 01-11-2010, 07:06 AM
  #24260  
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I usually appreciate what you say ACL, but if these prognistications come to fruition.. ANY of them, we will never get a raise, so let's just disband the "union" and go to a Jetblue style relationship with management. Can't strike... can't get any meaningful improvements because of management mistakes and blunders from the past yada yada yada. The thing that I find somewhat amusing as of late is the eerily similarity to our current situation and the obama stimulus plan. Example: we are offering JAl somewhere north of a lot of money (while still operating in the red ourselves). JAL now says thanks but no thanks. So... instead of plowing that money back into OUR company where it belongs... we are still too poor to do that.. Where does it go? Now.. there are no raises.. minimal improvements.. same ol same ol. Tell me this Nostradomus... will this cycle ever end? I think not. I think I have said this before, but I found an old alpa rag from 1991, and the title on it was "Restoring the Profession" talk amongst yourselves...
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