Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
12-21-2009, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by capncrunch 
What is the most common thing that confuses the Northies you've spoken with?
Didn't NW displacements also include preferences? I can't imagine the concept of having displacement choices is foreign to them.
I think the real problem is that people will commit the cardinal sin, and not bid things they can actually stomach, or fail to plan for enough displacement options. None of those concepts are unique to this airline, or this bidding process.
The only problems I foresee is that N guys will assume that:
1) REG is a guarantee, like Block. REG is a close guess, and I don't even know how it's determined, that will put you near the borderline between Line and "Block". As time goes on, and as the clean-up bid is posted, your individual staus will likely change. If you want to control it better, put %. Which leads to this next assumption.
2) % is equivalent to a number in category. IOW, you see a category of 100 pilots, and decide you need to be #85 to get a line. So you list 85%. Unfortunately, Planning ends up deciding to let 120 people bid in catgeory, for whatever reason (happens all the time). Your 85% gets you #102 in category. Conversely, Planning may elect to only put in X successful bidders, and understaff slightly, until the clean-up bid. Now, the category has only (for example) 87 people. You'd be thrilled to be #85, and wait for more bidders in the future, except that you asked to be 85%. 85% of 87 people is 74 people. In effect, you required to be #74, by asking for 85%, when you actually wanted to be #85 in category. ooops: you're not senior enough. So, for even better control, you ask for a specific number. We've already alluded to our last incorrect assumption...
3) Category size is a constant. So you figure a number gives you optimal control, and you ask to be #85 in category. As discussed before, the category after the award may be bigger, or smaller. #85 of 120 may be awesome, but #85 of 85 not so much.
There is no fast rule about whether a % or a number is better, and there is no clear way to tell the final category size. As it turns out, these are problems that plague both sides evenly. I think a lot of N guys will be surprised, but that has more to do with the magnitude of the bid, than the process. Huge bids = big ripples. It's the nature of the beast. An equivalent % of guys will outbid themsleves on the South side.
What makes the process most different to the North, I think, is the absence of Block/Reserve. That is new to them, but it is definitely not a surprise: we've been discussing it for months.
At the end of the day, everyone should bid carefully, and not get too cute with % or #, and follow that most sacred principle of bidding: bid what you want, want what you bid. And do keep in mind that greed can be costly. There is no harm in not taking a swing at the first pitch: many of us can afford to put in a few (but probably unneccessary) displacement bids, and enjoy the holidays in the meantime. Except for displacements, noone is going to get a crappy award that they didn't ask for...
What is the most common thing that confuses the Northies you've spoken with?
Didn't NW displacements also include preferences? I can't imagine the concept of having displacement choices is foreign to them.
I think the real problem is that people will commit the cardinal sin, and not bid things they can actually stomach, or fail to plan for enough displacement options. None of those concepts are unique to this airline, or this bidding process.
The only problems I foresee is that N guys will assume that:
1) REG is a guarantee, like Block. REG is a close guess, and I don't even know how it's determined, that will put you near the borderline between Line and "Block". As time goes on, and as the clean-up bid is posted, your individual staus will likely change. If you want to control it better, put %. Which leads to this next assumption.
2) % is equivalent to a number in category. IOW, you see a category of 100 pilots, and decide you need to be #85 to get a line. So you list 85%. Unfortunately, Planning ends up deciding to let 120 people bid in catgeory, for whatever reason (happens all the time). Your 85% gets you #102 in category. Conversely, Planning may elect to only put in X successful bidders, and understaff slightly, until the clean-up bid. Now, the category has only (for example) 87 people. You'd be thrilled to be #85, and wait for more bidders in the future, except that you asked to be 85%. 85% of 87 people is 74 people. In effect, you required to be #74, by asking for 85%, when you actually wanted to be #85 in category. ooops: you're not senior enough. So, for even better control, you ask for a specific number. We've already alluded to our last incorrect assumption...
3) Category size is a constant. So you figure a number gives you optimal control, and you ask to be #85 in category. As discussed before, the category after the award may be bigger, or smaller. #85 of 120 may be awesome, but #85 of 85 not so much.
There is no fast rule about whether a % or a number is better, and there is no clear way to tell the final category size. As it turns out, these are problems that plague both sides evenly. I think a lot of N guys will be surprised, but that has more to do with the magnitude of the bid, than the process. Huge bids = big ripples. It's the nature of the beast. An equivalent % of guys will outbid themsleves on the South side.
What makes the process most different to the North, I think, is the absence of Block/Reserve. That is new to them, but it is definitely not a surprise: we've been discussing it for months.
At the end of the day, everyone should bid carefully, and not get too cute with % or #, and follow that most sacred principle of bidding: bid what you want, want what you bid. And do keep in mind that greed can be costly. There is no harm in not taking a swing at the first pitch: many of us can afford to put in a few (but probably unneccessary) displacement bids, and enjoy the holidays in the meantime. Except for displacements, noone is going to get a crappy award that they didn't ask for...
12-21-2009, 10:53 AM
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12-21-2009, 10:57 AM
Happy to be here
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12-21-2009, 10:59 AM
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Posts: 3,902
It's not that there weren't displacements, it's just that it's different.
1. Instead of 3 different bids, there was just one card. On the card was a list, including your current position. Anything you wanted was infront of your current position, and anything behind was what you wanted to be displaced to. There was no mechanism for a VD.
2. Block/reserve separation. This simplified bidding, because there was no guessing the percentages, and it was simple to set up a bid to fall off to something else if you could no longer hold a block. This was huge for commuters.
3. Monthly bids. If you messed up, and missed out bidding or got a base you didn't want, they next bid was just next month, and not some indeterminate time in the future. Effective dates and training dates were rigid and in the short term (3 1/2 months) so the timelines were well understood.
The NWA APA was very structured with definate timelines. Most NWA consider the AE system sort of "loosey goosey", which is where most of the angst comes from
Nu
12-21-2009, 11:09 AM
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ANA orders 5 767s, 5 777s in ¥185.2 billion deal
Japan's All Nippon Airways has ordered five Boeing 767-300ER and five 777-200ER aircraft, in a deal worth ¥185.2 billion ($2 billion).
It decided to order five additional 767s after reviewing the delivery schedule for the 787, says the spokeswoman. ANA has ordered 55 787s; it hopes to receive the first late next year, and all 55 by 2017.
The new 767s are seen as a stop gap measure pending the arrival of the 787. In September 2008, ANA placed an order for nine 767-300ERs, but cut this back to four in June 2009 citing economic uncertainty.
The five 767s will arrive in the fiscal years 2010 and 2011, the five 777-200ERs in fiscal years 2012 and 2013. ANA's fiscal year runs from 1 April to 31 March.
ANA will pay ¥76 billion for the 767s, and ¥109.2 billion for the 777s, says the airline.
The five 777-200ERs will replace ANA's three 747-400s, which it hopes to sell in 2010. The carrier will phase them out of service by March 2011, says the spokeswoman.
Only one of the 747s operates on a regular basis on the Tokyo Narita-Paris Charles de Gaulle route. The other two are auxiliary aircraft that stay at the carrier's maintenance centre. ANA has yet to identify buyers for the three aircraft.
It operates 59 767s and 43 777s, according to Flightglobal's ACAS database.
Japan's All Nippon Airways has ordered five Boeing 767-300ER and five 777-200ER aircraft, in a deal worth ¥185.2 billion ($2 billion).
It decided to order five additional 767s after reviewing the delivery schedule for the 787, says the spokeswoman. ANA has ordered 55 787s; it hopes to receive the first late next year, and all 55 by 2017.
The new 767s are seen as a stop gap measure pending the arrival of the 787. In September 2008, ANA placed an order for nine 767-300ERs, but cut this back to four in June 2009 citing economic uncertainty.
The five 767s will arrive in the fiscal years 2010 and 2011, the five 777-200ERs in fiscal years 2012 and 2013. ANA's fiscal year runs from 1 April to 31 March.
ANA will pay ¥76 billion for the 767s, and ¥109.2 billion for the 777s, says the airline.
The five 777-200ERs will replace ANA's three 747-400s, which it hopes to sell in 2010. The carrier will phase them out of service by March 2011, says the spokeswoman.
Only one of the 747s operates on a regular basis on the Tokyo Narita-Paris Charles de Gaulle route. The other two are auxiliary aircraft that stay at the carrier's maintenance centre. ANA has yet to identify buyers for the three aircraft.
It operates 59 767s and 43 777s, according to Flightglobal's ACAS database.
12-21-2009, 11:29 AM
Happy to be here
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Posts: 18,563
Ftb;
Getting aircraft for cheap is part of our business plan.....
I cannot see us waiting for years for new jets. (Just saying......
)
Getting aircraft for cheap is part of our business plan.....
I cannot see us waiting for years for new jets. (Just saying......
)
12-21-2009, 11:37 AM
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Joined APC: Jun 2009
Posts: 5,113
1. Instead of 3 different bids, there was just one card. On the card was a list, including your current position. Anything you wanted was infront of your current position, and anything behind was what you wanted to be displaced to. There was no mechanism for a VD.
2. Block/reserve separation. This simplified bidding, because there was no guessing the percentages, and it was simple to set up a bid to fall off to something else if you could no longer hold a block. This was huge for commuters.
3. Monthly bids. If you messed up, and missed out bidding or got a base you didn't want, they next bid was just next month, and not some indeterminate time in the future. Effective dates and training dates were rigid and in the short term (3 1/2 months) so the timelines were well understood.
The NWA APA was very structured with definate timelines. Most NWA consider the AE system sort of "loosey goosey", which is where most of the angst comes from
2. Block/reserve separation. This simplified bidding, because there was no guessing the percentages, and it was simple to set up a bid to fall off to something else if you could no longer hold a block. This was huge for commuters.
3. Monthly bids. If you messed up, and missed out bidding or got a base you didn't want, they next bid was just next month, and not some indeterminate time in the future. Effective dates and training dates were rigid and in the short term (3 1/2 months) so the timelines were well understood.
The NWA APA was very structured with definate timelines. Most NWA consider the AE system sort of "loosey goosey", which is where most of the angst comes from
Makes sense. If I distill it down, the main difference is in the inability to predict block vs. reserve. That is significant: no argument there. It helps me understand how you guys were more strictly segregated along payrates: if there were no displacements, you could park yourself in a Block category, and not be bumped out.
One negative consequence: a low line-holder couldn't bid Reserve, and get Christmas off, right? The AE system creates some uncertainty right around the bottom line-holder area. That in turn creates a little more volatile bidding environment. It causes many people to want to be more senior in a higher category, in order to feel secure about holding a line, which in turn leaves the door open for more junior people to play around the bottom of a category. It's a little less comfortable for commuters, and a little more comfortable for people living in base.
The VD is a plus for the AE system. The continuous running with smaller bids seems to be a plus for the APA system, although I have to think about that some more. Either way, when two large systems collide, you can't have it flow in a trickle. AE, or APA, the first bid would have to be huge, or it would artificially reduce opportunities.
As you can imagine, I like the more volatile environment, because I don't commute, and I'm in a junior base. So I'm biased. I don't take the standpoint that commuter interests don't matter, but I do recognize that this system, this contract, which includes AE's, and excluded the better commuter policy, worked well for the airline as it was set up. Since we've now got access to a much bigger network, I would guess the % of commuters will naturally decline, esepcially if FAR's/CFR's change. So, from my perspective, I'm more interested in seeing the Reserve system improved, than in seeing a hard Block/Reserve line. For too long, we allowed for the fact Reserve was simply "a place for junior people". Now that more people may get to experience it against their will, maybe it will put more emphasis on making it better for everyone. After all, putting a border between Block and Reserve alleviates the symptoms, but doesn't cure the problem (that Reserve sucks).
With that said, I understand the apprehension, and having worked under the AE system doesn't spare me: everything is on the table. So I'm as nervous about someone not understanding an aspect of the system, and bidding into my category by mistake, as that person is...
12-21-2009, 11:50 AM
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Since the bids ran monthly...In theory, a block guy could bid December reserve and bid back to block for January. There was a risk with this if your block spot got filled and no one bid out the next month you just lost your block and are stuck on reserve. This is why most did not do it but it was possible.
This was assuming that block was a senior position. In Hawaii, the reserve was more senior than block.
12-21-2009, 11:55 AM
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Posts: 2,324
And do keep in mind that greed can be costly. There is no harm in not taking a swing at the first pitch: many of us can afford to put in a few (but probably unneccessary) displacement bids, and enjoy the holidays in the meantime. Except for displacements, noone is going to get a crappy award that they didn't ask for...
12-21-2009, 12:05 PM
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Posts: 5,113
I followed the early part of your post but got a little bogged down on this paragraph. To clarify, are you saying that some people fail to estimate just how displaced they may become and don't prepare their MD well enough so that they end up letting the computer place them? Or they put something on there they never thought they would get displaced to but end up getting it?
I keep telling myeself to be disciplined, and put down exactly what I want, with the appropriate qualifiers, and not get greedy enough to ask for what I might accidentally get. I also keep telling myself it's OK if a junior guy gets something I didn't actually want, even if it pays better, or comes with an extra stripe.
It's another version of "bid what you want, want what you bid". Make sense?
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