Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
12-19-2014, 07:33 AM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,037
Originally Posted by Leeham & Assoc.
Air France-KLM defers 2015/16 777s, cites poor financial results, low fuel prices
Dec. 18, 2014: Air France-KLM said today that it will defer delivery of 10 Boeing 777-300ERs scheduled for delivery in 2015/16 due to lower than expected financial results and because the current fuel price environment makes taking the airplanes less compelling.
This is the first high-profile deferral that we know of citing the thesis we’ve been talking about: that the current fuel price environmental threatens the Classic wide-body airplanes (as opposed to the next generation of re-engined, new technology aircraft).
Bloomberg News has this report. The key passage: The carrier had earlier planned to take about 10 Boeing 777s in 2015 and 2016 and will now look to postpone those deliveries, the CFO said. One reason the airline can afford not to take the new planes is that the lower oil price reduces any gains from having more fuel-efficient aircraft.
Today’s 777 Classic is only marginally more fuel efficient than earlier models. As David Strauss of UBS Securities noted in a report that we summarized yesterday, the capital cost of new aircraft that don’t have substantial gains in economic operating costs don’t outweigh keeping older, current generation airplanes in service.
Some Wall Street analysts have made this point for some time. Filling the production gap for the 777 Classic and the Airbus A330ceo becomes more challenging the lower the fuel price because the increased fuel efficiency of today’s models isn’t that much greater than those 10 years old.
Boeing is going to end this year with around 60 777 Classic orders, the high end of the 40-60 it says it needs to maintain current production rates. Airbus has a steeper cliff and a shorter time frame to fill the production gap for the A330, but it’s already indicated to analysts rates will come down to about 6/mo in advance of the 2018 EIS for the A330neo, at which time it shows rates climbing back to current levels.
We believe the current fuel price environment exacerbates the challenge for Airbus and Boeing.
Dec. 18, 2014: Air France-KLM said today that it will defer delivery of 10 Boeing 777-300ERs scheduled for delivery in 2015/16 due to lower than expected financial results and because the current fuel price environment makes taking the airplanes less compelling.
This is the first high-profile deferral that we know of citing the thesis we’ve been talking about: that the current fuel price environmental threatens the Classic wide-body airplanes (as opposed to the next generation of re-engined, new technology aircraft).
Bloomberg News has this report. The key passage: The carrier had earlier planned to take about 10 Boeing 777s in 2015 and 2016 and will now look to postpone those deliveries, the CFO said. One reason the airline can afford not to take the new planes is that the lower oil price reduces any gains from having more fuel-efficient aircraft.
Today’s 777 Classic is only marginally more fuel efficient than earlier models. As David Strauss of UBS Securities noted in a report that we summarized yesterday, the capital cost of new aircraft that don’t have substantial gains in economic operating costs don’t outweigh keeping older, current generation airplanes in service.
Some Wall Street analysts have made this point for some time. Filling the production gap for the 777 Classic and the Airbus A330ceo becomes more challenging the lower the fuel price because the increased fuel efficiency of today’s models isn’t that much greater than those 10 years old.
Boeing is going to end this year with around 60 777 Classic orders, the high end of the 40-60 it says it needs to maintain current production rates. Airbus has a steeper cliff and a shorter time frame to fill the production gap for the A330, but it’s already indicated to analysts rates will come down to about 6/mo in advance of the 2018 EIS for the A330neo, at which time it shows rates climbing back to current levels.
We believe the current fuel price environment exacerbates the challenge for Airbus and Boeing.
Still, I'd like to see those airplanes show up here sooner rather than later.
12-19-2014, 07:37 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: 7ERA
Posts: 1,231
Prior to all that, Heiko had an extensive background in the Scheduling arena where he served as Chairman of the committee with Scrappy as his vice. He was the Scheduling committee vice-chairman prior to that under Kim Welch back when we got Letter 46 in December 2004 and PBS was subsequently negotiated and implemented. With some short gaps, he has been doing ALPA work for the better part of 10 years at least.
If it's true that he quit, I think that is unfortunate.
If it's true that he quit, I think that is unfortunate.
12-19-2014, 09:20 AM
veut gagner à la loterie
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
12-19-2014, 09:21 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Petting Zoo
Posts: 2,090
Can someone explain this "bank" thing?
12-19-2014, 09:32 AM
Doesn't Get Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,598
I'm sure someone else will do better than me, but here is my quick take.
If you have more than a certain number of credit hours in a month you can put the hours above that into a bank. It's somewhere around 80 hours and I think you can save up to 30 hours.
You can then use those hours to pay you back when you have a low month for whatever reason.
You can also buy extra vacation days.
You can also "borrow" from the bank and go negative. Then you automatically pay back the debt if you credit above 80 hours at 5 hours per month.
Biggest reasons to use it are to get up to the GS trigger. Some guys use it to buy an extra week of vacation each year.
One strategy is to fill the bank up on 1st year pay, then pay it out on 2nd year pay. You can also do this if you are upgrading.
If you have more than a certain number of credit hours in a month you can put the hours above that into a bank. It's somewhere around 80 hours and I think you can save up to 30 hours.
You can then use those hours to pay you back when you have a low month for whatever reason.
You can also buy extra vacation days.
You can also "borrow" from the bank and go negative. Then you automatically pay back the debt if you credit above 80 hours at 5 hours per month.
Biggest reasons to use it are to get up to the GS trigger. Some guys use it to buy an extra week of vacation each year.
One strategy is to fill the bank up on 1st year pay, then pay it out on 2nd year pay. You can also do this if you are upgrading.
12-19-2014, 09:37 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Right Seat 744
Posts: 946
If you fly over 80 hrs in a month, you can "bank" some or all of the excess time, instead of getting paid, for future use.
Ex: You fly 88 hrs. You can get paid for all of the 88 hrs, OR, bank 1 to 8 hrs. You get paid for the 80 hrs, and you pay yourself at a later date for the excess time you banked. Say you wanted to drop a short trip. You dont get paid for the dropped trip, so you pay yourself from your bank to make up the lost income.
In another example, say you only have 73 hrs for the month, and you pick up a green slip. GS start paying double over 75 hrs. Since you only have 73 hrs, the first two hrs of the trip are paid at single rate. BUT, you can take 2 hrs from your bank, and add that to your monthly total, thus giving you 75 hrs. So the entire GS trip will be paid at double time. You can borrow up to 5 hrs to fill to 75 hrs if you dont have the banked time.
Look at pg 12-15, Sect O. of the PWA, Green Slips, sect 23 PWA, and G/S trigger on your monthly time card.
Clear as mud
Ex: You fly 88 hrs. You can get paid for all of the 88 hrs, OR, bank 1 to 8 hrs. You get paid for the 80 hrs, and you pay yourself at a later date for the excess time you banked. Say you wanted to drop a short trip. You dont get paid for the dropped trip, so you pay yourself from your bank to make up the lost income.
In another example, say you only have 73 hrs for the month, and you pick up a green slip. GS start paying double over 75 hrs. Since you only have 73 hrs, the first two hrs of the trip are paid at single rate. BUT, you can take 2 hrs from your bank, and add that to your monthly total, thus giving you 75 hrs. So the entire GS trip will be paid at double time. You can borrow up to 5 hrs to fill to 75 hrs if you dont have the banked time.
Look at pg 12-15, Sect O. of the PWA, Green Slips, sect 23 PWA, and G/S trigger on your monthly time card.
Clear as mud
Last edited by crewdawg52; 12-19-2014 at 09:51 AM.
12-19-2014, 10:48 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 737A
Posts: 1,890
Thanks for the opinion. My take is that as long as I wouldn't be involuntarily displaced, I don't think it would be horrible to be the plug as long as I lived in domicile. While I like money as much as the next guy, I could be happy just pulling in reserve guarantee for a couple years if it meant I'd have lots of free time to enjoy my family and the outdoors. As a new guy who really doesn't have any concept of life as the plug, would that be a fairly accurate assessment?
My wife followed me for 16 years in the AF so I promised her she could pick any domicile where I could hold an airframe. She has given me the options of Seattle and Atlanta. I currently live in San Antonio and hate how I'm basically a prisoner in my own home for 5-6 months of the year due to the heat/humidity and I don't see that being any different in Atlanta. Due to kids in school we need to move this summer or not at all, and even on positive space I don't like commuting which means we are definitely moving this summer. If I can't get SEA on the January AE then it is unlikely I'd be able to get there any time soon anyway so I feel like this is my one shot to break free of the south
.
As for the new category, tell me about it. I'm ecstatic to have been hired by DAL, but my 717 NYC reserve schedule in January will not be one of my selling points to the bros who are asking about staying in/getting out. I think it would sting a lot less if my goofy reserve schedule was spent sitting at home with the family rather than commuting back and forth to the crash pad.
My wife followed me for 16 years in the AF so I promised her she could pick any domicile where I could hold an airframe. She has given me the options of Seattle and Atlanta. I currently live in San Antonio and hate how I'm basically a prisoner in my own home for 5-6 months of the year due to the heat/humidity and I don't see that being any different in Atlanta. Due to kids in school we need to move this summer or not at all, and even on positive space I don't like commuting which means we are definitely moving this summer. If I can't get SEA on the January AE then it is unlikely I'd be able to get there any time soon anyway so I feel like this is my one shot to break free of the south
.As for the new category, tell me about it
. I'm ecstatic to have been hired by DAL, but my 717 NYC reserve schedule in January will not be one of my selling points to the bros who are asking about staying in/getting out. I think it would sting a lot less if my goofy reserve schedule was spent sitting at home with the family rather than commuting back and forth to the crash pad.Anyway, I'd take some more offset, or maybe even turn cold for a while to let the picture settle out before I attack it.
12-19-2014, 11:08 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,235
^^^^^^^^ THIS^^^^^^^
A deep breath and a six pack does the mind wonders.
A deep breath and a six pack does the mind wonders.
12-19-2014, 11:12 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: A320 Left seat
Posts: 2,591
12-19-2014, 11:49 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Position: 717A
Posts: 243
9 more 717s on the open market.
Blue1 to replace Boeing 717s, likely with 737-600s
Victoria Moores Dec 19, 2014
Blue1 Boeing 717 at Amsterdam
Courtesy, Rob Finlayson
Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) has announced plans to “reboot” its Blue1 subsidiary by replacing its nine Boeing 717s, most likely with 737-600s, and using it as a wet-lease provider.
Speaking during a phone briefing on Thursday, SAS CEO Rickard Gustafson said the 717s would be divested by the end of 2015. “The 717 is a bit of an odd bird, creating unnecessary complexity,” Gustafson said.
The 717 also has high unit costs and, under the current plan, the last five 717s will be replaced with 737-600s. Blue1 will then be “rebooted” as a wetlease provider for SAS.
“SAS has reduced capacity at Blue1 by about 40% as a result of the decision to divest four Boeing 717s. The five remaining Boeing 717s will be phased out in 2015,” said SAS in its 2013-2014 full-year report.
Gustafson said this strategy has been boosted by a new agreement with Blue1’s unions, which makes the airline more “effective and competitive.” This includes a provision for grounding aircraft during off-peak periods, which will give SAS greater flexibility in its capacity management.
SAS also recently announced plans to acquire 100% of Danish regional Cimber, which was set to close in April 2015. Under the deal, SAS will transfer its 12 Bombardier CRJ900s to Cimber’s air operator’s certificate. Cimber’s staff, its CRJ200s and ATR 72 are all still slated to leave the company.
Since it was nearly pushed to bankruptcy in 2012, SAS has slimmed its fleet from nine aircraft types down to four. Gustafson described this as a “significant step”. The SAS mainline operation will focus on aircraft with 120 seats or more, such as Airbus A320s and 737s, while Blue1 and Cimber will cover lower-capacity operations, supported by SAS’ other wet-lease providers, Flybe and Jettime.
Through this model, SAS is aiming to right-size its network, support SAS’ hub operations, maintain thinner routes and support routes during off-peak times.
Blue1 is a Finnish carrier, headquartered in Helsinki, which was founded in 1987 and has been owned by SAS since 1998. It also has a hub at Copenhagen airport and serves around 28 regional and international destinations.
Victoria Moores Dec 19, 2014
Blue1 Boeing 717 at Amsterdam
Courtesy, Rob Finlayson
Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) has announced plans to “reboot” its Blue1 subsidiary by replacing its nine Boeing 717s, most likely with 737-600s, and using it as a wet-lease provider.
Speaking during a phone briefing on Thursday, SAS CEO Rickard Gustafson said the 717s would be divested by the end of 2015. “The 717 is a bit of an odd bird, creating unnecessary complexity,” Gustafson said.
The 717 also has high unit costs and, under the current plan, the last five 717s will be replaced with 737-600s. Blue1 will then be “rebooted” as a wetlease provider for SAS.
“SAS has reduced capacity at Blue1 by about 40% as a result of the decision to divest four Boeing 717s. The five remaining Boeing 717s will be phased out in 2015,” said SAS in its 2013-2014 full-year report.
Gustafson said this strategy has been boosted by a new agreement with Blue1’s unions, which makes the airline more “effective and competitive.” This includes a provision for grounding aircraft during off-peak periods, which will give SAS greater flexibility in its capacity management.
SAS also recently announced plans to acquire 100% of Danish regional Cimber, which was set to close in April 2015. Under the deal, SAS will transfer its 12 Bombardier CRJ900s to Cimber’s air operator’s certificate. Cimber’s staff, its CRJ200s and ATR 72 are all still slated to leave the company.
Since it was nearly pushed to bankruptcy in 2012, SAS has slimmed its fleet from nine aircraft types down to four. Gustafson described this as a “significant step”. The SAS mainline operation will focus on aircraft with 120 seats or more, such as Airbus A320s and 737s, while Blue1 and Cimber will cover lower-capacity operations, supported by SAS’ other wet-lease providers, Flybe and Jettime.
Through this model, SAS is aiming to right-size its network, support SAS’ hub operations, maintain thinner routes and support routes during off-peak times.
Blue1 is a Finnish carrier, headquartered in Helsinki, which was founded in 1987 and has been owned by SAS since 1998. It also has a hub at Copenhagen airport and serves around 28 regional and international destinations.
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