Originally Posted by GogglesPisano

We have about 450 whale pilots. If 115 are displaced next year they will head to 777, 330, 765 seats (744B's might head for narrowbody A's.)

Vis-a-vis the 10 330 deliveries, you can look at this as "330 vacancies being diluted by 744 displacements," or "744 displacements being tempered by 330 deliveries." Depends on your glass.

An early-out would be a win for everyone.

Originally Posted by Fly4hire

Better start thinking about all 16 acft and 450 pilots and what that will do to movement. I'm sure it won't all be this year and next, but unless this is some gambit to renegotiate leases or a pressure point over RFP prices at Boeing this is the beginning of the end for the 744. We still have a lot of retirements and I imagine an early out would mitigate it further, but either way we are looking at more stagnation, just a matter of how much

Originally Posted by GogglesPisano

I doubt we will see widebody "growth" aircraft in the near or mid term. We'll be lucky to get 777-300's to replace some of the 747's.

Anyone have an analysis of the average fleet-wide seating capacity at Delta? I'm fairly certain it's on a downward trajectory. It's perfectly okay -- as long as we're content to be a narrowbody airline that feeds out JV partners.

Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp

It's my current understanding that we weren't using the full compliment of whales fully in the first place (i.e. not 16 aircraft worth of pilot block hours even in the summer), so the impact won't be as much. Didn't we have a couple of them just sitting around last winter unless there were military charters?

Originally Posted by Fly4hire

Better start thinking about all 16 acft and 450 pilots and what that will do to movement. I'm sure it won't all be this year and next, but unless this is some gambit to renegotiate leases or a pressure point over RFP prices at Boeing this is the beginning of the end for the 744. We still have a lot of retirements and I imagine an early out would mitigate it further, but either way we are looking at more stagnation, just a matter of how much

Originally Posted by DogWhisperer

Originally Posted by Timbo

My Freshman year I went to a similar (to ERAU) school up in Nashua, New Hampshire, called New England Aeronautical Institute. I was enrolled in Aero Engineering, and taking flying lessons too. I wanted to be an Aero Engineer, because all the Airline Pilots I knew were on furlough! (1977)

They were charging DOUBLE the 'mom+pop' rates for the flying lessons, ($45/hr. vs. $20, in 1977 dollars) and really jerking the kids around on how much time they would require them to fly before they let them solo, (20hrs.) or get their PPL(60hrs.), COM, etc. Oh, and also charging the kids for "Ground School"...i.e. you IP giving you a briefing.

When I went home for Christmas break, I told my parents what was going on at the school, and they suggested I transfer to U of NH, live at home, commute to school (we lived only 17 miles away from UNH) spend the 'extra' money on flying lessons at the local field, which is what I did.

I highly recommend this course for two reasons;

1. It's much cheaper and quicker to get your tickets

2. You will meet more "real live working pilots" from a variety of backgrounds and jobs (Airline and 135 types) at the local field, who can open doors for you, and get you pointed in the right direction, once you get your tickets, vs. hanging out with your 'Bro's' who are also 21yr. old idiots (like you) and of no help to you, career wise, hanging at that expensive (rip-off) school, waiting for an IP job...

Because I was hanging around real live working pilots, at the local aerodrome, I happened to be in the right place, right time, when a 135 copilot quit with no notice, to go to American Airlines, in 1979.

Initially, I was picked up only to fill in for a week, while they looked for someone with 'more time' (I was 19, with only 500 hrs.) but that turned into 4 years, flying cancelled checks in an AC690 at night, 4 nights a week, 6hrs. a night, 1000hrs. yr (quite a bit more, actually, but not logged!). Multi engine, turbine, cross country, night, filling all the squares at once, while going to college in the daytime, 8-12, MWF. Yeah, I pretty much slept through my last two years of college.


In 4 years, 4 nights a week, over 4,000 hrs. in some of the nastiest wx you can imagine, in BOS, JFK, LGA, EWR and DET, we never once cancelled for weather. We were too young/dumb for that, we just flew right through it! I had to get back to BOS on time, (6am) so I wouldn't miss my 8am classes! I learned how to fly an ILS to the pavement, on raw data.

I know I have used up all my luck, so now I'm quite conservative, law of averages and all that! Oh, and Delta is paying me by the minute, so it 'pays' to hold and then divert!

BTW, that guy who suddenly left to go to American in 1979? In 1981, after PATCO went on strike, he was furloughed from AA, and later became my Co-Pilot, flying the cancelled checks! I was 22, he was 30!

At the 135 company, I met a C141 Reserve pilot, who flew the company Lear Jet in the daytime. He got stuck flying the night checks with me once. He talked me into joining the NH Air Guard. It took two years of begging, but once I got into the Guard, I met lots of real live airline pilots who helped me get interviewed at Delta/American/US Air.

The point of this story?

If you spend all your time hanging around an expensive flight school, waiting to become an IP there, you'll get tunnel vision. You may not meet anybody but the graduates of that school, who will tell you to 'get in line', be an IP, fly RJ F/O for years, then maybe you'll get to Pindevor, then to DL....someday....maybe.

Oh, and you'll have all those loans to pay back too!

If you instead fly in the 'real world' you will meet real pilots, who may be able to point you in a better direction. Of course now we have the Internet and this web board does a great job of that.

OR...JOIN THE AIR GUARD!

You'll get much better training, and it's FREE!

Heck THEY PAY YOU to do it!

Yes, you will have to serve your country (part time) for 10 years, and you may have to go to war, full time, too, but it will be a great fall back job if/when your airline furloughs you.

The only thing constant in this industry is...

Change!

(just ask those 8 guys who didn't get 747 Capt. bids!)