Roadkill

johnso, you're exactly the guy I was thinking about when I said "unable to break the two events apart from the data stream."
There are numerous actions going on here, each one results in a gain or loss in "required new pilots". You look at the total, see that it's positive, and discount anyone's concerns that it should or could have been higher.

If we are unwilling to look at the results of individual changes to the contract, and analyze how each change actually affected us, we will never be able to form a basis for understanding and valuing contract tweaks and changes in the future. Your attitude quells discussion of these individual results, and does not serve us well in being informed decision makers in the future.

-- retirements, should result in a 1 for one new hiring replacement in a stable non-shrinking pilot pool. All results different than this MUST be allocated to gains from various changes (717) or losses from recognized or unrecognized workrule and productivity "losses" to the pilots.
--717 acquisition, results in net gain of pilots
--7ER retirements... Constantly being blamed for our contraction, but in fact the company has said numerous times that the 737-900 acquisition would be capacity neutral due to 7ER retirements. Filed this statement with the SEC many times. Not shrinking, not growing, neutral. ANY observed differences in pilot manning that can be attributed to 7ER factors that are NOT balanced by other gains (capacity neutral), should be analyzed and discussed to isolate where the differences originate, and if in fact we are seeing changes NOT offset by 900s and 88s gained that result in capacity neutral.
-- 900s, not a pilot manning gainer according to company unless you're ignoring all their filings and investor meetings.
--M88 additions, should be positive to some extent
-- 31 day to 30 day changes in critical "limiting factor" months of Jul and Aug, results in 3.3% productivity gain in those critical months, or 3.3% reduced pilot needs in those critical manning-driving months
-- ALV+15, results in some reduced # of pilots required due to reserves being able/allowed to be flown to approx 100 hours if needed by company vs. only 68 previously, during peak months. Allows company to man reserves for LOW months and bump UP in peak months, vs. man for peak months and have extra dudes for low months. Net loss of pilots, exact number UNKNOWN... Can ONLY be figured out if we're willing to look at the data and not attack our own fellows who don't immediately cheer "It's a net positive overall!"

Here's a Fable for you, Johnso, which I think is applicable in this situation:

Once there was a farmer named Roadkill. He had found some brown stones in his yard, which folks said might have trading value and give him leverage with a company in town. Roadkill also needed to sell his 100 gallons of milk a week to someone. And he wanted to buy the daily paper from someone. RK went to the "Tsquare-johnso" company, and their man johnso said, "Well we can do ALL of that for you! Let's see, we'll buy your milk from you for hrmm... market rates adjusted to some of your peers that are reasonable; and you'll have to pay us for the paper, that's a very costly item to produce these days and ink and insurance costs are going way up... carry the one, multiply by... Ok, and we'll pay you for these stones which do have some value. ALRIGHTY! We'll pay you $10 per week!"
Roadkill took the deal, as his advisors said it was the best he would get. In the next few months however, RK learned those stones had been diamonds, milk normally went for $40 a week for what he was selling, and the paper was only fifty cents. He began to suspect his TOTAL PAYMENT wasn't as good as it could have been--and the NEXT year he wanted to know more and be able to properly value all his deal items!
Roadkill went into town and began to ask around about the price of milk, and how much diamonds were worth. Upon hearing this, the TsquareJohnso company declared loudly to all who would listen, "Roadkill You total ingrate! We're paying you a NET POSITIVE, you're making money, and you have the gall to ask about the price of milk?" They organized a lynchmob and hung RK, and no farmer in that town ever questioned what they were getting paid for milk or charged for the paper again.

cni187

I'm just glad they're not displacing anymore off the ER!!!!

trlaketige

According to the DTW flt ops show, parking 70 757's by 2015.

tr

johnso29

I agree. Let's look at some other things.

Should they? What if a pilot group is overstaffed as a result of a merger? Now Delta is understaffed. Or perhaps not understaffed, but preparing for planned growth that is about to occur. Add in retirements, and they need to get ahead of the curve.

Hence why Delta is hiring.

When management is speaking to the investment world and media, the phrase "capacity neutral" includes regional capacity. Also, we aren't contracting. We are hiring. We are increasing our block hours.

How so? Capacity neutral doesn't seal the deal on no growth. If you park 2.75 50 seaters and take delivery of 1 737-900ER, is that not roughly capacity neutral?

They are. Which is why the fleet is extremely short from a staffing standpoint, and why GS awards were flowing like candy this past summer. It's also why we just had an AE with only M88 vacancies.


The more reserves are utilized, the numbers of reserves required increases. They may get away with it to a point, but I haven't seen any data to prove its occurring company wide. The M88 fleet was abused this past summer. But NBs fleets always get abused in peak months when a company needs to hire.

Which is why Delta is hiring?

And how did I attack you? I simply stated the reason why slots weren't back filled. And it's not a surprise as Crew Resources told us they would not back fill anyone on this AE. The entire point of this AE(which was stated by Crew Resources) was to staff the M88 fleet in time for 3/2014 which will see the M88 fly as many block hours as it will in the summer.

johnso29

I have heard that as well. The numbers I gave were from info divulged this past summer. Even more reason why 7ER FO slots won't be back filled.

Roadkill

Wow that's a lot. Ok, positive view then: that by itself SHOULD result in massive thrash and downward movement for all... but we're not seeing it, we're staying stable and the company says they plan on not displacing but letting natural attrition do the work. That's a good thing!

We're mostly stable, and hiring is kicking in with new-hires soon to join the bottom of the list, which should hopefully begin to move us all upwards, something hopeful to look forward to. Another good thing!

Thanks for the good reading johnso, it killed some time waiting for a flight. But really, you didn't like the fable? Come on man, give it up!

johnso29

I still have to read the fable. But I'm sure it'll deserve two thumbs up.

It was great! Except the ending. No way would we have hung you.

We would've shared Jack Daniels with you, & went after Vol cheerleaders. At least that's what Tsquare would've encouraged.

Foulwx

Just what it says unfortunately... Medicare surtax. I've been hit with hit for a few paychecks. For us "high" wage earners. I think it's 0.9% over 200k.

caddis

According to the MSP show that is how many are due their heavy checks. They will be parked or given the heavy checks dependent upon the economy.

The airplanes being parked is a moving target. I have heard the DC-9s were going to be parked since 1999. That being said I am with T Square and think we need to do something about our "size matters" pay scales. The 737-900 will be replacing X number of 757s and a flatter pay scale would be nice.

JobHopper

A sign of things to come. Somebody will have to pay for the ever expanding medical system and we already can't afford Medicare, which loses money every year.