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Old 07-29-2013, 08:30 PM
  #136251  
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Originally Posted by slowplay
The fleet plan, aircraft delivery schedules and aircraft park and retirement plans are all posted in various locations on Deltanet and are accessible from a work computer. The latest revision that I looked at was dated 6/13/13 and showed a net increase of 80 mainline airframes by 12/31/15. It didn't include the 11 EVA/Uni MD-90's. There were 50 739 and 88 B717 deliveries against 17 DC-9-50 and 41 B757 retirement/lease returns.
1) Does that 41 include the 11 B757s that have already been taken out of service since July of last year? If not, then thats 52 B757s lost and 50 B739s replacing them. Also there's a rumor we're headed to 60ish B757s, that'd be a total loss of around 90 B757s since the 739 was ordered. So that makes the 739 almost entirely a 757 replacement, but the 739 was advertised as a 763 and 320 replacement as well. Are we still going to park from of the 16 domestic B763s or 320s?

2) Given the numbers of around 80 aircraft in the particular categories you mentioned I see a BH ratio of 1.80 (or 1.7981).
If that is true, why did we put the required ratio in the PWA at 1.56 if this growth was known last year?
3) We have about 324 retirements between now and the end of 2015. If we are going to have net growth of 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015 that'd require about 1444 pilots (14/acft). We're hiring 300, so we need 1,144 in 2015 alone to cover aircraft already being delivered in 2015. So we'd behind the entire year in staffing by a considerable amount even with 95 pilots a month.

What the he[Rachel Maddow Show]ll are they thinking with pilot hiring? Why only announce 300 if you need nearly 5 times that in short order? Or is it we don't need 14 pilots per plane anymore? How many RES Captains and FOs are exceeding ALV now and is it already effecting pilot staffing needs?

4) 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015, or about 89 since July of last year, equals a seating inventory growth of around 11%. Put those seats in motion and take DCI to 450 jets and net the DCI 50-seaters for 76-seaters ASM swap and you've got a domestic growth of around 6-7% over a 2 year period. Or what 3%/yr give or take.

It's a lot of growth or about 3X what we've been doing for years now and even this year...

Richard Anderson 24JUL13: We will continue to manage our capacity conservatively as we've done over the past several years in order to prioritize profit margins and improving cash flows. The first half of 2013, our capacity was down overall, and we will be up slightly about 2% in the back half of 2013; for full year capacity, up less than 1%, below GDP growth.

So.... honest question, what's the growth for? We're going to grow our domestic fleet by 14%, grow ASMs by 6%, increase well beyond the required BH ratio... but where are these jets going? And why are we breaking our capacity constraint model out of the blue even after this week claiming we're staying the course?

And with all the growth why are we only going to hire 300 in 2014 leaving us way behind for 2015?

It reminds me of talking to these APDs in the 88 program, guy 1 is freaking out because there will be so many pilots coming through there won't be enough sims even with the E period sims for newhires and the wheels are going to come off. APD guy #2 says we were told we don't really need to hire right now.

Last edited by forgot to bid; 07-29-2013 at 08:54 PM.
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Old 07-29-2013, 09:39 PM
  #136252  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
1) Does that 41 include the 11 B757s that have already been taken out of service since July of last year? If not, then thats 52 B757s lost and 50 B739s replacing them. Also there's a rumor we're headed to 60ish B757s, that'd be a total loss of around 90 B757s since the 739 was ordered. So that makes the 739 almost entirely a 757 replacement, but the 739 was advertised as a 763 and 320 replacement as well. Are we still going to park from of the 16 domestic B763s or 320s?

2) Given the numbers of around 80 aircraft in the particular categories you mentioned I see a BH ratio of 1.80 (or 1.7981).
If that is true, why did we put the required ratio in the PWA at 1.56 if this growth was known last year?
3) We have about 324 retirements between now and the end of 2015. If we are going to have net growth of 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015 that'd require about 1444 pilots (14/acft). We're hiring 300, so we need 1,144 in 2015 alone to cover aircraft already being delivered in 2015. So we'd behind the entire year in staffing by a considerable amount even with 95 pilots a month.

What the he[Rachel Maddow Show]ll are they thinking with pilot hiring? Why only announce 300 if you need nearly 5 times that in short order? Or is it we don't need 14 pilots per plane anymore? How many RES Captains and FOs are exceeding ALV now and is it already effecting pilot staffing needs?

4) 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015, or about 89 since July of last year, equals a seating inventory growth of around 11%. Put those seats in motion and take DCI to 450 jets and net the DCI 50-seaters for 76-seaters ASM swap and you've got a domestic growth of around 6-7% over a 2 year period. Or what 3%/yr give or take.

It's a lot of growth or about 3X what we've been doing for years now and even this year...

Richard Anderson 24JUL13: We will continue to manage our capacity conservatively as we've done over the past several years in order to prioritize profit margins and improving cash flows. The first half of 2013, our capacity was down overall, and we will be up slightly about 2% in the back half of 2013; for full year capacity, up less than 1%, below GDP growth.

So.... honest question, what's the growth for? We're going to grow our domestic fleet by 14%, grow ASMs by 6%, increase well beyond the required BH ratio... but where are these jets going? And why are we breaking our capacity constraint model out of the blue even after this week claiming we're staying the course?

And with all the growth why are we only going to hire 300 in 2014 leaving us way behind for 2015?

It reminds me of talking to these APDs in the 88 program, guy 1 is freaking out because there will be so many pilots coming through there won't be enough sims even with the E period sims for newhires and the wheels are going to come off. APD guy #2 says we were told we don't really need to hire right now.
There is a scene in Apollo 13 where the engineers and astronauts have to make a quick calculation. Every time I watch it, I know the lesson to be learned from that incident is that we need more engineers. Ie., more wiz kids who love math and numbers.

FTB, if you weren't lured away by the shiny gold buttons (that I heard attract European women ), I'm sure you would be working for NASA right now.

Ode to FTB:

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Old 07-29-2013, 09:59 PM
  #136253  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
1) Does that 41 include the 11 B757s that have already been taken out of service since July of last year? If not, then thats 52 B757s lost and 50 B739s replacing them. Also there's a rumor we're headed to 60ish B757s, that'd be a total loss of around 90 B757s since the 739 was ordered. So that makes the 739 almost entirely a 757 replacement, but the 739 was advertised as a 763 and 320 replacement as well. Are we still going to park from of the 16 domestic B763s or 320s?

2) Given the numbers of around 80 aircraft in the particular categories you mentioned I see a BH ratio of 1.80 (or 1.7981).
If that is true, why did we put the required ratio in the PWA at 1.56 if this growth was known last year?
3) We have about 324 retirements between now and the end of 2015. If we are going to have net growth of 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015 that'd require about 1444 pilots (14/acft). We're hiring 300, so we need 1,144 in 2015 alone to cover aircraft already being delivered in 2015. So we'd behind the entire year in staffing by a considerable amount even with 95 pilots a month.

What the he[Rachel Maddow Show]ll are they thinking with pilot hiring? Why only announce 300 if you need nearly 5 times that in short order? Or is it we don't need 14 pilots per plane anymore? How many RES Captains and FOs are exceeding ALV now and is it already effecting pilot staffing needs?

4) 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015, or about 89 since July of last year, equals a seating inventory growth of around 11%. Put those seats in motion and take DCI to 450 jets and net the DCI 50-seaters for 76-seaters ASM swap and you've got a domestic growth of around 6-7% over a 2 year period. Or what 3%/yr give or take.

It's a lot of growth or about 3X what we've been doing for years now and even this year...

Richard Anderson 24JUL13: We will continue to manage our capacity conservatively as we've done over the past several years in order to prioritize profit margins and improving cash flows. The first half of 2013, our capacity was down overall, and we will be up slightly about 2% in the back half of 2013; for full year capacity, up less than 1%, below GDP growth.

So.... honest question, what's the growth for? We're going to grow our domestic fleet by 14%, grow ASMs by 6%, increase well beyond the required BH ratio... but where are these jets going? And why are we breaking our capacity constraint model out of the blue even after this week claiming we're staying the course?

And with all the growth why are we only going to hire 300 in 2014 leaving us way behind for 2015?

It reminds me of talking to these APDs in the 88 program, guy 1 is freaking out because there will be so many pilots coming through there won't be enough sims even with the E period sims for newhires and the wheels are going to come off. APD guy #2 says we were told we don't really need to hire right now.
My guess is the 300 number is a very low starting point number so as not to appear to be over doing it. That number will very likely be much higher, we'll see

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Old 07-29-2013, 10:13 PM
  #136254  
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Originally Posted by Superpilot92
My guess is the 300 number is a very low starting point number so as not to appear to be over doing it. That number will very likely be much higher, we'll see

Yep... given the latest rumblings from the schoolhouse, it will be well north of 300. Bring on the noobs (and the some new some used aircraft)!
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:38 PM
  #136255  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
1) Does that 41 include the 11 B757s that have already been taken out of service since July of last year? If not, then thats 52 B757s lost and 50 B739s replacing them. Also there's a rumor we're headed to 60ish B757s, that'd be a total loss of around 90 B757s since the 739 was ordered. So that makes the 739 almost entirely a 757 replacement, but the 739 was advertised as a 763 and 320 replacement as well. Are we still going to park from of the 16 domestic B763s or 320s?

2) Given the numbers of around 80 aircraft in the particular categories you mentioned I see a BH ratio of 1.80 (or 1.7981).
If that is true, why did we put the required ratio in the PWA at 1.56 if this growth was known last year?
3) We have about 324 retirements between now and the end of 2015. If we are going to have net growth of 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015 that'd require about 1444 pilots (14/acft). We're hiring 300, so we need 1,144 in 2015 alone to cover aircraft already being delivered in 2015. So we'd behind the entire year in staffing by a considerable amount even with 95 pilots a month.

What the he[Rachel Maddow Show]ll are they thinking with pilot hiring? Why only announce 300 if you need nearly 5 times that in short order? Or is it we don't need 14 pilots per plane anymore? How many RES Captains and FOs are exceeding ALV now and is it already effecting pilot staffing needs?

4) 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015, or about 89 since July of last year, equals a seating inventory growth of around 11%. Put those seats in motion and take DCI to 450 jets and net the DCI 50-seaters for 76-seaters ASM swap and you've got a domestic growth of around 6-7% over a 2 year period. Or what 3%/yr give or take.

It's a lot of growth or about 3X what we've been doing for years now and even this year...

Richard Anderson 24JUL13: We will continue to manage our capacity conservatively as we've done over the past several years in order to prioritize profit margins and improving cash flows. The first half of 2013, our capacity was down overall, and we will be up slightly about 2% in the back half of 2013; for full year capacity, up less than 1%, below GDP growth.

So.... honest question, what's the growth for? We're going to grow our domestic fleet by 14%, grow ASMs by 6%, increase well beyond the required BH ratio... but where are these jets going? And why are we breaking our capacity constraint model out of the blue even after this week claiming we're staying the course?

And with all the growth why are we only going to hire 300 in 2014 leaving us way behind for 2015?

It reminds me of talking to these APDs in the 88 program, guy 1 is freaking out because there will be so many pilots coming through there won't be enough sims even with the E period sims for newhires and the wheels are going to come off. APD guy #2 says we were told we don't really need to hire right now.
DALPA.... Hire this guy ^^^
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Old 07-30-2013, 12:19 AM
  #136256  
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Interesting last 24 hours for you sports fans...had Pete Rose on the jet (and his smoking hot 25 yearish old wife; nothing wrong about that) last night and Penny Hardaway of Memphis and NBA fame today. Both really, really nice folks. I was thinking...how many flights have those two had in their careers over the years? Especially Rose.
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Old 07-30-2013, 04:00 AM
  #136257  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
1) Does that 41 include the 11 B757s that have already been taken out of service since July of last year? If not, then thats 52 B757s lost and 50 B739s replacing them. Also there's a rumor we're headed to 60ish B757s, that'd be a total loss of around 90 B757s since the 739 was ordered. So that makes the 739 almost entirely a 757 replacement, but the 739 was advertised as a 763 and 320 replacement as well. Are we still going to park from of the 16 domestic B763s or 320s?

2) Given the numbers of around 80 aircraft in the particular categories you mentioned I see a BH ratio of 1.80 (or 1.7981).
If that is true, why did we put the required ratio in the PWA at 1.56 if this growth was known last year?
3) We have about 324 retirements between now and the end of 2015. If we are going to have net growth of 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015 that'd require about 1444 pilots (14/acft). We're hiring 300, so we need 1,144 in 2015 alone to cover aircraft already being delivered in 2015. So we'd behind the entire year in staffing by a considerable amount even with 95 pilots a month.

What the he[Rachel Maddow Show]ll are they thinking with pilot hiring? Why only announce 300 if you need nearly 5 times that in short order? Or is it we don't need 14 pilots per plane anymore? How many RES Captains and FOs are exceeding ALV now and is it already effecting pilot staffing needs?

4) 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015, or about 89 since July of last year, equals a seating inventory growth of around 11%. Put those seats in motion and take DCI to 450 jets and net the DCI 50-seaters for 76-seaters ASM swap and you've got a domestic growth of around 6-7% over a 2 year period. Or what 3%/yr give or take.

It's a lot of growth or about 3X what we've been doing for years now and even this year...

Richard Anderson 24JUL13: We will continue to manage our capacity conservatively as we've done over the past several years in order to prioritize profit margins and improving cash flows. The first half of 2013, our capacity was down overall, and we will be up slightly about 2% in the back half of 2013; for full year capacity, up less than 1%, below GDP growth.

So.... honest question, what's the growth for? We're going to grow our domestic fleet by 14%, grow ASMs by 6%, increase well beyond the required BH ratio... but where are these jets going? And why are we breaking our capacity constraint model out of the blue even after this week claiming we're staying the course?

And with all the growth why are we only going to hire 300 in 2014 leaving us way behind for 2015?

It reminds me of talking to these APDs in the 88 program, guy 1 is freaking out because there will be so many pilots coming through there won't be enough sims even with the E period sims for newhires and the wheels are going to come off. APD guy #2 says we were told we don't really need to hire right now.
Well done sir! A much more professional way of saying the numbers don't add up and something is rotten in Denmark.
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Old 07-30-2013, 04:22 AM
  #136258  
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Originally Posted by buzzpat
Interesting last 24 hours for you sports fans...had Pete Rose on the jet (and his smoking hot 25 yearish old wife; nothing wrong about that) last night and Penny Hardaway of Memphis and NBA fame today. Both really, really nice folks. I was thinking...how many flights have those two had in their careers over the years? Especially Rose.

In 1992, when Pete Rose was going through his little gambling thing, I had him on my Mad Dog, from CVG to somewhere. The young (remember, this was 21 years ago) Flight Attendant comes to the cockpit and says, "Hey! Pet Rose is sitting in 2B!"

I turn to her and say, "Really? Why don't you go back there and ask him what the odds are, that we'll get there on time..." It went right over her head, but the F/O was laughing pretty hard.

Check your pm's Buzz.
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Old 07-30-2013, 04:25 AM
  #136259  
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More bad press from a connection carrier.

A partially paralyzed man is suing Delta Airlines, claiming he was forced to crawl on and off his flights and across the tarmac because he wasn't provided with the equipment he needed to board and exit the plane, according to a complaint.

D. Baraka Kanaan, 40, of Haiku, Hawaii, filed the suit in U.S. District Court in Hawaii against Delta Airlines and 20 of the carrier's employees and agents. The suit, filed on July 23, seeks damages after he endured "intense physical and extreme emotional suffering" from the ordeal.

In the suit, Kanaan said the airline subjected him to "appallingly outrageous treatment" both on his flight to Nantucket, Mass., on July 27, 2012 and on his flight back to Maui, Hawaii, two days later.
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Old 07-30-2013, 04:27 AM
  #136260  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
1) Does that 41 include the 11 B757s that have already been taken out of service since July of last year? If not, then thats 52 B757s lost and 50 B739s replacing them. Also there's a rumor we're headed to 60ish B757s, that'd be a total loss of around 90 B757s since the 739 was ordered. So that makes the 739 almost entirely a 757 replacement, but the 739 was advertised as a 763 and 320 replacement as well. Are we still going to park from of the 16 domestic B763s or 320s?

2) Given the numbers of around 80 aircraft in the particular categories you mentioned I see a BH ratio of 1.80 (or 1.7981).
If that is true, why did we put the required ratio in the PWA at 1.56 if this growth was known last year?
3) We have about 324 retirements between now and the end of 2015. If we are going to have net growth of 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015 that'd require about 1444 pilots (14/acft). We're hiring 300, so we need 1,144 in 2015 alone to cover aircraft already being delivered in 2015. So we'd behind the entire year in staffing by a considerable amount even with 95 pilots a month.

What the he[Rachel Maddow Show]ll are they thinking with pilot hiring? Why only announce 300 if you need nearly 5 times that in short order? Or is it we don't need 14 pilots per plane anymore? How many RES Captains and FOs are exceeding ALV now and is it already effecting pilot staffing needs?

4) 80 airframes between now and the end of 2015, or about 89 since July of last year, equals a seating inventory growth of around 11%. Put those seats in motion and take DCI to 450 jets and net the DCI 50-seaters for 76-seaters ASM swap and you've got a domestic growth of around 6-7% over a 2 year period. Or what 3%/yr give or take.

It's a lot of growth or about 3X what we've been doing for years now and even this year...

Richard Anderson 24JUL13: We will continue to manage our capacity conservatively as we've done over the past several years in order to prioritize profit margins and improving cash flows. The first half of 2013, our capacity was down overall, and we will be up slightly about 2% in the back half of 2013; for full year capacity, up less than 1%, below GDP growth.

So.... honest question, what's the growth for? We're going to grow our domestic fleet by 14%, grow ASMs by 6%, increase well beyond the required BH ratio... but where are these jets going? And why are we breaking our capacity constraint model out of the blue even after this week claiming we're staying the course?

And with all the growth why are we only going to hire 300 in 2014 leaving us way behind for 2015?

It reminds me of talking to these APDs in the 88 program, guy 1 is freaking out because there will be so many pilots coming through there won't be enough sims even with the E period sims for newhires and the wheels are going to come off. APD guy #2 says we were told we don't really need to hire right now.
Great post. At this point in time mainline has done nothing but shrink since the merger. I'll believe the 717's and 739's are growth when our fleet actually grows.

All I know is the ink has been dry on this contract for over a year and we have fewer pilots than we did a year ago.

80 (additional) airframes + retirements starting = 300 pilots needed, something doesn't add up?
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