Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
06-01-2013, 04:35 PM
The Brown Dot +1
Joined APC: Jun 2009
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06-01-2013, 04:58 PM
seeing the large hubs...
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I mean, for example, Fedex might decide that they really like the 757 with the high costs for fuel, so they up the prices they'll pay this summer - so Delta sells more than they were expecting. But then do they accelerate 737-900 orders? Does the increased price they are getting for the 757 allow them to buy the 321 which were, say, higher prices up front but Anderson didn't want to increase debt load?
So - with a dynamic environment, it's so hard to say whether these are increasing fleet size, keeping it the same, keeping it the same with different sized airplanes, or getting smaller.
And don't even get me started on "capacity restraint".
06-01-2013, 05:14 PM
veut gagner à la loterie
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
And this is the problem us keyboard warriors are up against - there are so many planes coming, going, maybe going, coming soon, maybe coming, rumored to be coming, or just not coming that we can't keep track. Honestly, I don't think Fleet Planning or whoever knows a year out what changes are coming to the fleet. They might have a goal, but they might not really know for certain.
I mean, for example, Fedex might decide that they really like the 757 with the high costs for fuel, so they up the prices they'll pay this summer - so Delta sells more than they were expecting. But then do they accelerate 737-900 orders? Does the increased price they are getting for the 757 allow them to buy the 321 which were, say, higher prices up front but Anderson didn't want to increase debt load?
So - with a dynamic environment, it's so hard to say whether these are increasing fleet size, keeping it the same, keeping it the same with different sized airplanes, or getting smaller.
And don't even get me started on "capacity restraint".
I mean, for example, Fedex might decide that they really like the 757 with the high costs for fuel, so they up the prices they'll pay this summer - so Delta sells more than they were expecting. But then do they accelerate 737-900 orders? Does the increased price they are getting for the 757 allow them to buy the 321 which were, say, higher prices up front but Anderson didn't want to increase debt load?
So - with a dynamic environment, it's so hard to say whether these are increasing fleet size, keeping it the same, keeping it the same with different sized airplanes, or getting smaller.
And don't even get me started on "capacity restraint".
But more importantly, if we have more than 10,500ish pilots flying the line every month, we grew.
06-01-2013, 05:25 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,514
So none of the older A320's are going away now? What other airplanes could be on the chopping block? I have a hard time believing "shrink to profitability" Ed and RA are going to grow Delta Air Lines mainline (excluding JV's, Code Shares, Semi Code Shares, Delta Connection, etc). This, based upon historical data which seems to form a pattern.
06-01-2013, 05:27 PM
veut gagner à la loterie
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Have we thought, small dog = Chihuahuas?
Because there are some great photos to work with:
People. We can do this.
BTW, it's spelled Chihuahua.
Because there are some great photos to work with:
People. We can do this.
BTW, it's spelled Chihuahua.
06-01-2013, 05:29 PM
Gets Weekends Off
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Position: Capt
Posts: 2,049
If they don't grow the mainline they can't take delivery of a single one of the new 76 seaters for DCI. They still have to reduce DCI to 450 airframes even if they don't add new aircraft to the mainline. The net effect will be a far greater drop in ASM's then the last 5 years. Not likely to happen.
06-01-2013, 05:36 PM
veut gagner à la loterie
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Posts: 23,286
The new contract is where all you have to do is add B717s to mainline and they can add 70 more 76-seaters without the requirement to park any 70-seaters. Taking jumbo RJs from 255 to 325. The mainline count doesn't matter because 76-seat growth was decoupled from mainlines size and coupled instead to the addition of new B717s, addition of more 76-seaters and then a BH ratio depending on the number added.
So add 88 B717s and subtract 88 mainline jets elsewhere and shrink DCI to 450 jets and you hit your 1.56 ratio. You're good to go. Not so with the last contract. But we had to give this up because we had to make sure Delta didn't order 1000 Dash Q400s and use them to fly JFK-DFW, ATL-COS, ATL-YYZ and the like.
Drop 218 50-seaters and add 70 76-seaters + 88 B717s and you net +4,100 seats.
/possible chihuahua driver... depending on this surprise AE based on clarity from network
06-01-2013, 05:52 PM
Gets Weekends Off
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MINI DOG!!!!
06-01-2013, 05:52 PM
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06-01-2013, 05:58 PM
Gets Weekends Off
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I want to do some math, standby.
Depending on how they do it and if that's all they do, going down to 60 B757s while sucky for pilots because we love the plane, it would not necessarily mean we shrunk.
That's as long as the 90 lost B757s are replaced by 140 jets (100 B739s and 40 A321s).
Because assume we add 88 B717s, 40 A321s, 100 739s, keep all of the A320s (maybe) and all we lose is 90 757s then we're still ahead by a good bit. In fact, way ahead. We'd actually have a half percent growth in ASMs YOY for five years (say thats how long it takes to make a transition) but we'd have increased the fleet size 128 jets. I can live with that.
But thats assuming we don't lose any other cough MD88 cough airplanes.
And that's assuming we go for frequency with mainline over reduced frequency. It could also mean we're expanding the west coast... which would mean the Alaska codeshare was after all hurting us in a bad way.
Anyways, the ratio I calculate is 1.9. Ah... just imagine if 1.9 had been the baseline instead of a much much lower status quo 1.56.
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