gloopy

True enough, although I would clarify that it won't be their actual oil that needs to run out for their bubble to pop. All that has to happen is the viability of their soverign wealth transfer pyramid scheme collapsing once the US gets its energy policy together, coupled with the inevitable reduction of regional military welfare by the "west" and hopefully the end of special subsidies on our end and their little house of cards will come tumbling down. It will be a beautiful sight to behold too.

tsquare

Thanks for the PM.. .I will check them out if they come anywhere near here. My tastes run to David Gilmour when it comes to soloing. I could listen to him play scales..

Oh, and have you ever heard the Mark Knopfler/Chet Atkins album? Good stuff...

gloopy

While I share your concerns, one could say the same thing about our entire fleet. Its all the rage these days to drop epic, stunning orders in a single press release. Airlines all over the world are doing it, even when they split manufacturers. But DL appears content to divide and spread out its orders. While not getting the volume discount, DL remains a very large carrier with significant long term fleet plans (growth or even just replacement) and as such I would expect has plenty of leverage in the marketplace.

Rather than ordering a million copies of "one plane to rule them all" in one day, DL can snipe smaller orders at what I suspect are still extremely competitive prices because Boeing and Airbus know that we could and likely will order more at any time. That keeps DL nimble and flexibile, which is the key to alcohol. Or something like that.

I do agree we need more widebodies. It appears we will get some for growth in a year or two (maybe sooner?) and will likely see significant order(s) for replacement narrow and wide body aircraft in what could drag out as a long term process. But so what. Don't give us a good deal on these 10-100 planes? Fine, but be advised we have way more than that on the dockett, and can just go to the other company, perhaps for a mega order. Wait, whats that? You want to deal now? Yeah, that's what I thought.

Also we are supposedly getting finances in order that will pave the way for long term favorable rates and cash flow, so I see no pressing need whatsoever to drop a single mega order for a million planes all at once. Ever. I'm shocked at how many others in the industry follow that sheep mentality too.

Timbo

Acoustic or Electric? Here's some acoustic for you:



One of my favorites.

But I may need to change my screen name to Comfortably Numb. ;^)

tsquare

Logical post, but I will offer up a fly for your ointment. Line slots. When AMR ordered all those 737s... in BK... did they reeeeeally have the method to pay for them should they take on those orders? I would opine that they didn't. But what they then DID have were dedicated slots on Boeing's assembly line that were good to barter for cash or other things they needed. I have no idea how they play out in the LCC merger, but I would venture to guess that they are still pretty valuable. If SWA weren't so busy fighting their own alligators, I would think that they might like some of those slots sooner rather than later.

I do agree with you though that a mega widebody order is not on any horizon at DAL.. never has been... and probably never will. But at least they pay a lot....

tsquare

High Hopes is my all time Gilmour fav...



This one is good, but he did a more acoustic version at Albert Hall that is amazing....

Comfortably Numb fits you brother

Edit: Found it...

gloopy

True enough, although I think DL has more than enough flexibility to mitigate that. DL is set up to not "need" hundreds of back to back urgent delivery line slots in the first place. The 100 737-900ER order and options gave DL more than enough short to medium term slottage. Long term needs can be handled on a case by case basis. Both major manufacturers are ramping up production, and there are always tons or fake orders on the books from around the world that either won't ever pan out or that were sucked up by leasing companies or airlines hoping to deal away. Manufacturers will also be stuck with some and willing to deal. Plus I think they will easilly be able to "find" some, especially to sweeten the pot for other orders, etc.

DL will be able to get the planes it needs. Especially when DL is as flexibile as they are. More so than any other legacy airline anywhere it seems. I wouldn't worry about it. We got 88 problems, but slots ain't one.

tsquare

Oh I agree with you. Besides, it seems that Mr A will take just about anything we can get if it fills a need. Personally I think buying used airplanes is a great thing. 3 used 330s or 1 new 777? Hmmm lemme think about that for a minute....

georgetg

Ding Ding Ding!

Then all we have to do is take a page out of our brothers at Uniteds' playbook and band the top pay for more than just the 777 and the 747...

Cheers
George

P.S.: FYI used 340 are going for under 10M these days or in the ballpark of an MD90, no wonder Norwegian will have 20% lower per seat cost on their leased 340s than the planned but delayed 787...

Timbo

T, thanks for that High Hopes vid, I had not seen that one.

As far as the "Wide Body Order", the LCA I just flew with said we wouldn't hear what they decide until the end of this summer.

A lot can happen between now and then, so don't hold your breath!

Like I've always said, their 5 year plan changes every 3 weeks.