Bucking Bar

Delta might have been setting records, but the music on those records was written during the Continental & US Air bankruptcies. When United filed in 2002 (using the same consulting group already on the Delta property) an astute watcher could correctly assume that the same model was going to be used on Delta. This began before C2K and before 9/11. The decision to strategically bankrupt Delta was probably made with the decision to bring on Leo Mullin with no experience in running an airline ... Leo Mullin was a banker / airline consultant who worked for the firm advising United on their bankruptcy.

In the spring of 2000 at a private lunch attended by Hollis Harris and other retired senior management the topic at the table was Delta's unsustainable pensions & pay (not just pilots, although that was a part of the puzzle) and the need for bankruptcy. For me this resonated with a couple of speeches I had heard from Fred Reid and Leo Mullin where they made the point that "costs do not matter. ... our competition will meet our costs and exceed them." Some friends who had helped with another airline's Section 6 bargaining were with me and none of us could believe what was being said. Some senior D-ALPA Admin were in this presentation as well, so Alpha, Slow and probably Sailing have institutional knowledge about the management roadshow during those days. I have spoken with some Delta pilots who had first hand conversations with Leo Mullin who had heard him reflect the same sort of "who cares? We will never honor those contracts anyway ...." attitude.

At the regional carriers money could not be spent fast enough. Collins was given tens of millions for equip RJ's with dual FMC / Heads Up Guidance Systems (of which more than $50,000,000 just sat on account for quite a while). The ASA and Comair divisions of Delta Air Lines Holdings reportedly paid 8 to 10 million MORE for per CRJ200 than AirTran acquired 717's for. Comair built new gates in CVG and MCO and ASA was brought out of the stone age to near Delta standard for tech and maintenance.

IMHO after 9/11 the plan got away from Leo Mullin and senior Delta management. American drastically cut costs and became a competitive monster, as did US Air. Leo, Fred and Michelle's profligate ways immediately put Delta into a much worse situation than they had anticipated. They had intended a well organized "planned burn off" (my term) and they now had an out of control forest fire on their hands.

IMHO D-ALPA did a very good job in a very tough situation, as did a lot of Delta managers. The airline had no legitimate long term plan other than to try to get through the next year, six months, week, etc. Senior management and their consultant buddies were picking the meat from Delta's bones. Leo Mullin was at best reactive according to this writer:

Airline Without A Pilot - Leadership Lessons/Inside Story of Delta's Success, Decline and Bankruptcy: Harry L. Nolan: 9780977207602: Amazon.com: Books

If I were to write a history of Delta's bankruptcy (and I've always thought one should be written), C2K would stand out as a last act of hubris which was irrelevant before it was signed (as was the United contract there). The agreement assumed economic conditions which no longer existed. It is my opinion management signed the agreement with the full expectation (at least among the senior management if not the actual signatories) that the contract would not be honored.

The scope sections of C2K began to fail within 6 months. Given that the aircraft commitments were made (and reported in the press) 18 months prior, it is pretty obvious at least one of the signatories at the table had no intention of honoring the agreement when they signed it. ... and the path to breaking that contract ... bankruptcy.

Conclusion: Management knew, and ALPA should have known, bankruptcy was coming. Why else order 500+ CRJ's to replace the 727 / 737 fleets, when your scope agreement predicates mainline growth? Why hire a banker and bankruptcy expert to run the airline? Why allow them to gild their exit packages? Why run around stating "costs don't matter" unless you never intended to pay when the bills came due?

johnso29

George,

I haven't read it yet. Thanks for filling me in. My response was to what's highlighted below.

Check Essential

Airline economics is so depressing.

Time for a Wednesday morning mental health break.

Girls with hula hoops.

Bucking Bar

Scambo:

How do you know?

I've been trying to dig into where ALPA gets it's numbers from and best I can tell (and I could be wrong because they are pretty secretive) the primary source is Delta management and whatever Delta management reports to the Feds on DOT Form 41.

(JMHO follows)

D-ALPA is characterized by its conservatism. It does not want to go out on a limb and risk being wrong, ever. It does not want to ever lose.

Many years ago I bragged about my trial record to my boss, who replied "If you win all of your trials, you are not trying enough." It was his opinion that 50/50 meant you were pushing as hard as you could push. While I don't agree completely with his position, he had a point.

If D-ALPA pushes, they are going to lose from time to time. That's fine with me; but, are our pilots who view this from 50,000 feet at Mach 3 going to understand the process and why really trying means the occasional loss?

Scoop

Also, we just covered only a small portion of the 717s on this last Advanced Displacement bid, hopefully the next few bids will actually be, ........... dare I say it, "Advanced Entitlements."




Johnson,

My point was that overall the Bid was disappointing to many because the huge number of displacements cancelled out much of the potential upward movement.

I am hoping the next AE will have all/mostly AE's with little displacements. Trying to be optimistic.

Also, not sure that we have staffed, sorry, "funded," half of 88 jets with that last bid. Unless I am mistaken (happens often) At 7 crews per A/C we will need about 600 crews total

Scoop

FIIGMO

This forum is way too dreary and negative focused lately! I want more of everything too but complaining here is not gonna do it! So lets focus on other things that are fun to focus on! Red tomato's!!!

Air india

Cracking down on the "professionals". (Can one be a professional by answering an ad in the newspaper?) Imagine actually having to be fit to preform emergency duties!



Shape up or don't fly, Air India tells cabin crew over 40 - Travel Kit on NBCNews.com

johnso29

Scoop,

I meant over half of the available B717 vacancies filled on the previous bid were filled via AE.

FIIGMO

US Airways' Doug Parker on Future of Fares - CNBC


Glad we have Richard Anderson.

forgot to bid

Scoop

Gotcha. Hey, is it 7 crews per A/C or 7 Pilots, now I am not even sure.

Scoop