Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
03-10-2013, 01:47 PM
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03-10-2013, 01:49 PM
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I do not know where they are getting their numbers and I have asked both crew resources and the union. But, they are not getting them from historical or empirical numbers since 2007, anything prior to that is irrelevant. If they are including the early out guys they need to be removed from the formula as well since they were given incentives to retire.
See my previous post on how I arrived at 64 years and 4 months.
03-10-2013, 01:51 PM
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The DJI and the retirement age will move inverse to one another. I'm not surprised many were stretching for 65, or took an early out close to it over the last few years. But anyone who may have been 55 and reasonably invested to retire in early 2009 is gonna be ready to go here real soon.
03-10-2013, 01:52 PM
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It goes both ways. Apparently you're reading impaired as well.
03-10-2013, 01:57 PM
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What Data and can you send it to me?
I do not know where they are getting their numbers and I have asked both crew resources and the union. But, they are not getting them from historical or empirical numbers since 2007, anything prior to that is irrelevant. If they are including the early out guys they need to be removed from the formula as well since they were given incentives to retire.
See my previous post on how I arrived at 64 years and 4 months.
If the company can buy people out at 62.5 and make it make financial sense, then they'll continue to do so. They wouldn't be doing it if they didn't think it'd make sense.
I'm pretty sure someone in Crew Resources is smart enough to make a histogram.
03-10-2013, 01:59 PM
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No. I absolutely never said the bolded part whatsoever, and again: "prove it" as you so liked to tell others.
Where did I ever say that 578 are all the retirements we are going to get during that time period? That is the number that turn 65 during that period. I never said that is all we would get. Once again, as apparently it needs to be repeated, it was referencing people's belief that we have alot more than that retiring very soon due to turning 65. I'm not talking about what -might acutally- happen in addition. That is the number turning 65 in that period. I said that there are 578 turning age 65 durinig that period. And I'm not even the one that originally said it!
Again, I never said that 578 retirements is all we are going to get. Prove that I did.
And I noticed you conveniently avoided my challenge on the age 65 accusation. Still waiting for your proof on that one as well. I never said it (a change) was happening.
I also find it interesting that the opinions I expressed are basically the same as daldudes, yet his posts are ok....
Last edited by APCLurker; 03-10-2013 at 02:14 PM.
03-10-2013, 01:59 PM
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03-10-2013, 02:02 PM
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Fair Post but it is always good to keep perspective.
First lets talk age 65 retirement. The union and company keep pitching 62 1/2 as avg retirement age. Well I do not feel this is reality. Since they raised the age to 65, raped the pension and cut pay I would argue that most stay until 64 years and 4 months. Here is how I arrived at my number, definitely 2 hours I will never get back. Basically, I took total number of retired pilots since 2007, subtracted all retirements affiliated with early retirement programs then averaged age of remaining pilots (Why not include early out pilots? Because these pilots were induced to retire, so they artificially reduce natural retirement age). So TA DA avg. Age 64 and 4 months. I have asked the union for verification but they have yet to provide any numbers.
Now for some perspective on the mass retirements between now 2017 and 2023. Even with 4,258 retirements plus the 578 in next 5 years. A 2001 hire will not quite be into the top 50% of the seniority list after 23 years I will be 51 numbers short of cracking top half of list on 31 December 2023 and many NW and summer 2001 Delta hires will actually be further than me.
But here is the worst part. All of this assumes that they replace the pilots that retire. But we know that they have chosen to shrink the airline and have not replaced the last 800 ish retirements and they just announced in the most recent bid package (5th paragraph line 1) that they do not plan to hire to fill pilot vacancy's. We also have Sailing who is very smart and informative, already dropping hints that they plan to continue the the 757 retirements. Just like he dropped hints that they would accelerate the retirement of the DC9's. Kinda letting us down gently with accurate tidbits of information.
With all of that said, Johnson I don't know how old you were when you got hired in 2008 but I was at 34, fairly average I think. My career is nearly half over and when I crack the top half of the seniority list I will have 8 years 1 month until I am forced to retire. So that is why my generation of pilot is distraught. Even if the so called rocket ship of retirements takes off it makes no difference our careers will be over. They have essentially been over since the merger and age 65 took place.
Yes it is a good job, that is why we all don't quit. But all of this hiring this and hiring that is not supported by reality or what is actually happening.
First lets talk age 65 retirement. The union and company keep pitching 62 1/2 as avg retirement age. Well I do not feel this is reality. Since they raised the age to 65, raped the pension and cut pay I would argue that most stay until 64 years and 4 months. Here is how I arrived at my number, definitely 2 hours I will never get back. Basically, I took total number of retired pilots since 2007, subtracted all retirements affiliated with early retirement programs then averaged age of remaining pilots (Why not include early out pilots? Because these pilots were induced to retire, so they artificially reduce natural retirement age). So TA DA avg. Age 64 and 4 months. I have asked the union for verification but they have yet to provide any numbers.
Now for some perspective on the mass retirements between now 2017 and 2023. Even with 4,258 retirements plus the 578 in next 5 years. A 2001 hire will not quite be into the top 50% of the seniority list after 23 years I will be 51 numbers short of cracking top half of list on 31 December 2023 and many NW and summer 2001 Delta hires will actually be further than me.
But here is the worst part. All of this assumes that they replace the pilots that retire. But we know that they have chosen to shrink the airline and have not replaced the last 800 ish retirements and they just announced in the most recent bid package (5th paragraph line 1) that they do not plan to hire to fill pilot vacancy's. We also have Sailing who is very smart and informative, already dropping hints that they plan to continue the the 757 retirements. Just like he dropped hints that they would accelerate the retirement of the DC9's. Kinda letting us down gently with accurate tidbits of information.
With all of that said, Johnson I don't know how old you were when you got hired in 2008 but I was at 34, fairly average I think. My career is nearly half over and when I crack the top half of the seniority list I will have 8 years 1 month until I am forced to retire. So that is why my generation of pilot is distraught. Even if the so called rocket ship of retirements takes off it makes no difference our careers will be over. They have essentially been over since the merger and age 65 took place.
Yes it is a good job, that is why we all don't quit. But all of this hiring this and hiring that is not supported by reality or what is actually happening.
daldude,
I'm not trying to downplay the sour turn your career took. Please understand that. I won't pretend to know how you feel. I simply can't. I was 28 when I was hired. Two guys in my class were junior to me, the youngest @ 25 years of age. The last decade of this career is likely the worst ever experienced. It shattered the dreams and expectations of many, & it sucks. But it's over, & it's not coming back. We are witnessing a crazy transformation of the way the industry will do business, & Delta is leading the pack. I feel it will pay off for the pilots, and that will happen soon.
As I said before, I hope your left seat comes sooner then you expect. And thanks for the cordial discussion.
03-10-2013, 02:04 PM
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You and others seem to think that retirements in the future are going to be the cause of the rocketship. I am saying I don't think so for various reasons. I have not tried to present anything as "fact."
03-10-2013, 02:04 PM
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2023 is a DECADE away
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