Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
03-10-2013, 01:05 PM
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03-10-2013, 01:07 PM
veut gagner à la loterie
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03-10-2013, 01:14 PM
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Including 2017, from 2017 through 2023 there are 4,258 scheduled Age 65 retirements. It keeps going at that pace through 2033. That might be the rocket ship he was referring to.
Interesting enough, using the retirement numbers off APC UAL & DAL are almost dead even on scheduled retirements from 2013-2023. UALs are just more spread out, while DAL gets hammered later on.
Also, we are talking scheduled retirements. It's hard to factor how many will make it to 65 yrs of age. The company will likely need to hire early to manage the huge training bubbles.
Interesting enough, using the retirement numbers off APC UAL & DAL are almost dead even on scheduled retirements from 2013-2023. UALs are just more spread out, while DAL gets hammered later on.
Also, we are talking scheduled retirements. It's hard to factor how many will make it to 65 yrs of age. The company will likely need to hire early to manage the huge training bubbles.
First lets talk age 65 retirement. The union and company keep pitching 62 1/2 as avg retirement age. Well I do not feel this is reality. Since they raised the age to 65, raped the pension and cut pay I would argue that most stay until 64 years and 4 months. Here is how I arrived at my number, definitely 2 hours I will never get back. Basically, I took total number of retired pilots since 2007, subtracted all retirements affiliated with early retirement programs then averaged age of remaining pilots (Why not include early out pilots? Because these pilots were induced to retire, so they artificially reduce natural retirement age). So TA DA avg. Age 64 and 4 months. I have asked the union for verification but they have yet to provide any numbers.
Now for some perspective on the mass retirements between now 2017 and 2023. Even with 4,258 retirements plus the 578 in next 5 years. A 2001 hire will not quite be into the top 50% of the seniority list after 23 years I will be 51 numbers short of cracking top half of list on 31 December 2023 and many NW and summer 2001 Delta hires will actually be further than me.
But here is the worst part. All of this assumes that they replace the pilots that retire. But we know that they have chosen to shrink the airline and have not replaced the last 800 ish retirements and they just announced in the most recent bid package (5th paragraph line 1) that they do not plan to hire to fill pilot vacancy's. We also have Sailing who is very smart and informative, already dropping hints that they plan to continue the the 757 retirements. Just like he dropped hints that they would accelerate the retirement of the DC9's. Kinda letting us down gently with accurate tidbits of information.
With all of that said, Johnson I don't know how old you were when you got hired in 2008 but I was at 34, fairly average I think. My career is nearly half over and when I crack the top half of the seniority list I will have 8 years 1 month until I am forced to retire. So that is why my generation of pilot is distraught. Even if the so called rocket ship of retirements takes off it makes no difference our careers will be over. They have essentially been over since the merger and age 65 took place.
Yes it is a good job, that is why we all don't quit. But all of this hiring this and hiring that is not supported by reality or what is actually happening.
03-10-2013, 01:16 PM
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Weak argument. I could say the same for 2 years or 6 months. If you're going to consider the numbers for the next 5 years as solid, then you have to accept beyond that as well. As far a Age 65 being changed, what's your source? What is the drive behind changing it? Also, how can all those people retire with no hiring to replace them? How small do you think Delta well become? Aren't these the same predictions beyond 5 years from now that you yourself said are "entirely irrelevant"?
Please quote a post where I said I consider the numbers for the next 5 years retirements (or any numbers) as solid..... One of my previous posts was referencing people's mistaken belief, as brought up by daldude and that I have witnessed myself, that we have a large number of retirements coming up very soon due to age 65. We do not. Only 578 to '17. That is the number turning 65. Period. I never stated that I consider that number solid. You said that.
And where did I say that a change to age 6-anything was a for sure thing that needed a source for proof? Where did I say that there was even a drive to change it? You are saying those things and putting words in my post, not me. Stop making assumptions (talk about making a weak argument). I used it as an example of one thing that could change over the course of 5+ years. Does that register with you? It was an example of something that could change. I never related it as fact.
If you have a problem with my opinion, that is fine, but don't put words in my mouth.
RIF: Reading Is Fundamental
Last edited by APCLurker; 03-10-2013 at 01:35 PM. Reason: my
03-10-2013, 01:22 PM
Straight QOL, homie
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Just wondering if there are any 'yes' voters here who have realized they made a mistake.
03-10-2013, 01:25 PM
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Fair Post but it is always good to keep perspective.
First lets talk age 65 retirement. The union and company keep pitching 62 1/2 as avg retirement age. Well I do not feel this is reality. Since they raised the age to 65, raped the pension and cut pay I would argue that most stay until 64 years and 4 months. Here is how I arrived at my number, definitely 2 hours I will never get back. Basically, I took total number of retired pilots since 2007, subtracted all retirements affiliated with early retirement programs then averaged age of remaining pilots (Why not include early out pilots? Because these pilots were induced to retire, so they artificially reduce natural retirement age). So TA DA avg. Age 64 and 4 months. I have asked the union for verification but they have yet to provide any numbers.
Now for some perspective on the mass retirements between now 2017 and 2023. Even with 4,258 retirements plus the 578 in next 5 years. A 2001 hire will not quite be into the top 50% of the seniority list after 23 years I will be 51 numbers short of cracking top half of list on 31 December 2023 and many NW and summer 2001 Delta hires will actually be further than me.
But here is the worst part. All of this assumes that they replace the pilots that retire. But we know that they have chosen to shrink the airline and have not replaced the last 800 ish retirements and they just announced in the most recent bid package (5th paragraph line 1) that they do not plan to hire to fill pilot vacancy's. We also have Sailing who is very smart and informative, already dropping hints that they plan to continue the the 757 retirements. Just like he dropped hints that they would accelerate the retirement of the DC9's. Kinda letting us down gently with accurate tidbits of information.
With all of that said, Johnson I don't know how old you were when you got hired in 2008 but I was at 34, fairly average I think. My career is nearly half over and when I crack the top half of the seniority list I will have 8 years 1 month until I am forced to retire. So that is why my generation of pilot is distraught. Even if the so called rocket ship of retirements takes off it makes no difference our careers will be over. They have essentially been over since the merger and age 65 took place.
Yes it is a good job, that is why we all don't quit. But all of this hiring this and hiring that is not supported by reality or what is actually happening.
First lets talk age 65 retirement. The union and company keep pitching 62 1/2 as avg retirement age. Well I do not feel this is reality. Since they raised the age to 65, raped the pension and cut pay I would argue that most stay until 64 years and 4 months. Here is how I arrived at my number, definitely 2 hours I will never get back. Basically, I took total number of retired pilots since 2007, subtracted all retirements affiliated with early retirement programs then averaged age of remaining pilots (Why not include early out pilots? Because these pilots were induced to retire, so they artificially reduce natural retirement age). So TA DA avg. Age 64 and 4 months. I have asked the union for verification but they have yet to provide any numbers.
Now for some perspective on the mass retirements between now 2017 and 2023. Even with 4,258 retirements plus the 578 in next 5 years. A 2001 hire will not quite be into the top 50% of the seniority list after 23 years I will be 51 numbers short of cracking top half of list on 31 December 2023 and many NW and summer 2001 Delta hires will actually be further than me.
But here is the worst part. All of this assumes that they replace the pilots that retire. But we know that they have chosen to shrink the airline and have not replaced the last 800 ish retirements and they just announced in the most recent bid package (5th paragraph line 1) that they do not plan to hire to fill pilot vacancy's. We also have Sailing who is very smart and informative, already dropping hints that they plan to continue the the 757 retirements. Just like he dropped hints that they would accelerate the retirement of the DC9's. Kinda letting us down gently with accurate tidbits of information.
With all of that said, Johnson I don't know how old you were when you got hired in 2008 but I was at 34, fairly average I think. My career is nearly half over and when I crack the top half of the seniority list I will have 8 years 1 month until I am forced to retire. So that is why my generation of pilot is distraught. Even if the so called rocket ship of retirements takes off it makes no difference our careers will be over. They have essentially been over since the merger and age 65 took place.
Yes it is a good job, that is why we all don't quit. But all of this hiring this and hiring that is not supported by reality or what is actually happening.
Precisely some of the points I was making, and examples of what could happen in the future, especially based on current/recent/past events. Emphasis on -could- for the reading impaired.
03-10-2013, 01:35 PM
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03-10-2013, 01:39 PM
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Please quote a post where I said I consider the numbers for the next 5 years retirements (or any numbers) as solid..... One of previous posts was referencing people's mistaken belief, as brought up by daldude and that I have witnessed myself, that we have a large number of retirements coming up very soon due to age 65. We do not. Only 578 to '17. That is the number turning 65. Period. I never stated that I consider that number solid. You said that.
And where did I say that a change to age 6-anything was a for sure thing that needed a source for proof? Where did I say that there was even a drive to change it? You are saying those things and putting words in my post, not me. Stop making assumptions (talk about making a weak argument). I used it as an example of one thing that could change over the course of 5+ years. Does that register with you? It was an example of something that could change. I never related it as fact.
If you have a problem with my opinion, that is fine, but don't put words in my mouth.
RIF: Reading Is Fundamental
And where did I say that a change to age 6-anything was a for sure thing that needed a source for proof? Where did I say that there was even a drive to change it? You are saying those things and putting words in my post, not me. Stop making assumptions (talk about making a weak argument). I used it as an example of one thing that could change over the course of 5+ years. Does that register with you? It was an example of something that could change. I never related it as fact.
If you have a problem with my opinion, that is fine, but don't put words in my mouth.
RIF: Reading Is Fundamental
Including 2017, from 2017 through 2023 there are 4,258 scheduled Age 65 retirements. It keeps going at that pace through 2033. That might be the rocket ship he was referring to.
Interesting enough, using the retirement numbers off APC UAL & DAL are almost dead even on scheduled retirements from 2013-2023. UALs are just more spread out, while DAL gets hammered later on.
Also, we are talking scheduled retirements. It's hard to factor how many will make it to 65 yrs of age. The company will likely need to hire early to manage the huge training bubbles.
Interesting enough, using the retirement numbers off APC UAL & DAL are almost dead even on scheduled retirements from 2013-2023. UALs are just more spread out, while DAL gets hammered later on.
Also, we are talking scheduled retirements. It's hard to factor how many will make it to 65 yrs of age. The company will likely need to hire early to manage the huge training bubbles.
Then you said this.....
Any predictions over 5 years out in this industry are entirely irrelevant. Far too much can change. Age 6_ anyone? Those retirements causing advancement also assumes an expanding (or even status quo) seniority list. No hiring means you are still the same % from the bottom.
Personnaly, I do not think there is that much of a concern about any training/retirement bubble. There are probably enough solutions in the works, things being put in place or already in place, to mitigate them, or at the least significantly dampen the effects. EDIT: Next contract negotiations will probably reveal some of them.
I would love for any and every great prediction to come true. But based on 12 years of predictions and projections (more considering previous life) that just never quite seem to materialize as advertised (300+ early outs, etc for a recent one), followed by excuses, color me skeptical. "Watch their feet."
Personnaly, I do not think there is that much of a concern about any training/retirement bubble. There are probably enough solutions in the works, things being put in place or already in place, to mitigate them, or at the least significantly dampen the effects. EDIT: Next contract negotiations will probably reveal some of them.
I would love for any and every great prediction to come true. But based on 12 years of predictions and projections (more considering previous life) that just never quite seem to materialize as advertised (300+ early outs, etc for a recent one), followed by excuses, color me skeptical. "Watch their feet."
So while you didn't use the word "solid" you most certainly did state that any numbers beyond 5 years were "entirely irrelevant." Yet somehow the 578 retirements from now until 2017 are all we are going to get? Do you have solid proof that no one will retire early?
You also stated that retirements causing advancement assume expansion(or status quo). So you're assuming that Delta will just continue to shrink. Somehow 4800 pilots will retire in the next 10 years and no one will advance?(My post which your responded to spoke of retirements from 2017 through 2023) Is that not assumption on your part? You also believe there will be no issues with a training bubble. You assume that this will somehow be mitigated. That's not assumption on your part?
These are your thoughts that you put right into words on this thread. There's no assumption on my part. I quoted them for you. Your basing your assumptions on your poor experience in the past. I simply gave the scheduled retirement numbers. That's solid data. Any retirement age changes, training bubble avoidances, lack of future advancement, etc is you making assumptions.
As you said.....
RIF: Reading Is Fundamental
03-10-2013, 01:39 PM
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What are you suggesting?
03-10-2013, 01:42 PM
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