Originally Posted by daldude

Sailing,

I think most of the Jr FO's understand what you are saying, I think this board is a just a place to vent. I think there is a fair amount of frustration, because while nobody is looking for sympathy I feel that most Capt's and senior pilots have no clue as to what our career prospects have turned into. I for example was with a Capt the other day who asked why I had not bid Capt on the 88 after being here for 13 years. I then explained that I was still in the bottom 17% of the list and had approximately 11 years to go until I would break into the top 50% of the list. He actually did not believe me until I showed him that we only have 578 retirements between now and 2017. He then proceeded to tell me he could not relate and that he did not know how he could have sent his kids to college if he had not up graded in 11 years. My daughter starts the University of Texas next fall I was actually depressed after that portion of the conversation.

In fact you pointed out in a earlier post that you had a pretty slow (non rocket ship) up grade to Capt at 13 years. With 2001 hires looking at 23 years I actually thought 13 years was pretty good where you thought it was pretty fair at best. You pointed out you were and SO for 5 years, I was furloughed for 6 years. I actually thought having a job as an SO for 5 years looked pretty good where you thought is was not so good. Different perspectives.

But I think the biggest difference in the us and the (Cattle Barron's)(just a joke) is that in the past Delta pilots were jr for a relatively short period in their careers. You for example where jr as and SO for 5 years but then you moved up to senior FO then Capt by 13 years. Where as my generation will still be in the bottom 20% of the seniority list after 17 years. So the whole "I was jr once comparisons" and "you will be senior one day" remarks don't seem to apply.

So while I don't refute that Delta added Capt positions. The way this bid is falling out the Jr. FO's like me, Roadkill and many others see mass displacements to smaller aircraft as well as crew resources stating "we do not plan to hire to replace vacancies" I know you keep saying we are going to hire. But that is not what crew resources is publishing they are saying "we do not plan to hire to replace vacancies". I did go to the road show a couple of weeks ago and they pumped everybody up by saying we are going to hire, then they decide to shut down the DC9's a year early so they can continue to delay hiring. If SD and company had just said that we are going to displace 700 pilots and shut down the DC9's early so we can fund the 717 and build up 737's, I feel other than the short term riot in the pilot lounge I could have at least respected them for telling the truth.

Keep posting though, we all need the pep talks to counter the reality of being displaced off of narrow body aircraft after 13 years.

Originally Posted by forgot to bid

We set a precedence.
It'll be interesting to see how many "okay, just this one time increase in jumbo RJs/decrease in staffing but never again" are willing to do it again?

Originally Posted by forgot to bid

How about with a pay raise, a few work rule changes and 11 used 744s?

Originally Posted by johnso29

Including 2017, from 2017 through 2023 there are 4,258 scheduled Age 65 retirements. It keeps going at that pace through 2033. That might be the rocket ship he was referring to.
company will likely need to hire early to manage the huge training bubbles.

Originally Posted by APCLurker

Any predictions over 5 years out in this industry are entirely irrelevant. Far too much can change. Age 6_ anyone? Those retirements causing advancement also assumes an expanding (or even status quo) seniority list. No hiring means you are still the same % from the bottom.

Personnaly, I do not think there is that much of a concern about any training bubble. There are probably enough solutions in the works, things being put in place or already in place, to mitigate them, or at the least significantly dampen the effects.

I would love for any and every great prediction to come true. But based on 12 years of predictions and projections (more considering previous life) that just never quite seem to materialize as advertised (300+ early outs, etc for a recent one), followed by excuses, color me skeptical. "Watch their feet."

Originally Posted by APCLurker

Personnaly, I do not think there is that much of a concern about any training/retirement bubble. There are probably enough solutions in the works, things being put in place or already in place, to mitigate them, or at the least significantly dampen the effects. EDIT: Next contract negotiations will probably reveal some of them.

Originally Posted by APCLurker

Any predictions over 5 years out in this industry are entirely irrelevant. Far too much can change. Age 6_ anyone? Those retirements causing advancement also assumes an expanding (or even status quo) seniority list. No hiring means you are still the same % from the bottom.

Personnaly, I do not think there is that much of a concern about any training/retirement bubble. There are probably enough solutions in the works, things being put in place or already in place, to mitigate them, or at the least significantly dampen the effects. EDIT: Next contract negotiations will probably reveal some of them.

I would love for any and every great prediction to come true. But based on 12 years of predictions and projections (more considering previous life) that just never quite seem to materialize as advertised (300+ early outs, etc for a recent one), followed by excuses, color me skeptical. "Watch their feet."

Originally Posted by forgot to bid

The only fleet size the PWA mandates is the size of DCI.