Originally Posted by Scoop

Guys,


ALV + 15 is a negative for the Pilot group. The question is how big a negative? I guess I am a contrarian on this issue because I don't think it will be that bad. Here are my reasons:


Most will never see ALV +15. Guys are done above the ALV unless they want to fly more. For every unlucky guy that gets nailed with the 16 hour trip at ALV-1 another will get the 11 hour trip at ALV-10.



So basically a guy has just as much of a chance to be done at ALV+1 as ALV +15. Lets just assume the average guy that is forced to fly over ALV will end up around ALV + 7.5 (law of averages).


ALV + 15 only helps toward the months end. As I have said before the constraints for reserves are usually Holidays, Weekends, and IROP events. ALV + 15 does nothing for these for at least the first three weeks of the months.


So if the company tries to significantly cut back on reserves assigned there will be less reserves for the weekends, holidays, and IROPs. This will result in more white-slips, green-slips, or cancellations.


Don't get me wrong - there will be a few guys who get hosed by ALV + 15 and will probably end up with ALV + 14:55 and get ridden hard and put away wet, so to speak. But that happens to guys randomly every summer. Maybe a few more guys will get abused, hell probably a few more guys, but for the reasons I listed above I don't think it will significantly affect the majority of guys on reserve.


I have been on and off reserve for 13+ years and this is how I see it. I am interested in hearing the opinions of the guys who think the ALV +15 will really kill us. Not just "we will all be abused on reserve" but specifically how it will go down and how ALV + 15 will contribute to more that a few guys getting abused.


Finally, you can argue that even one guy getting abused by ALV + 15 is one guy too many. This is a different argument and one that I don't necessarily disagree with, but that is a whole different issue - I want to know how the ALV + 15 issue will be as overwhelmingly negative for the whole Pilot group as some on here seem to think.


Scoop

Originally Posted by Rogue24

During the base visit, Crew Resources said somewhere between 20-50 ERB displacements but would not hint on what side of that figure it would be. Seems to be a moving target and in reality it depends on how many AE off to the 717A.

Originally Posted by Delta1067

System wide or just in NYC?

Originally Posted by hoserpilot

Anyone up for a gladiators game?

Originally Posted by NERD

24 senior to lower 6300.

Originally Posted by Scoop

Guys,


ALV + 15 is a negative for the Pilot group. The question is how big a negative? I guess I am a contrarian on this issue because I don't think it will be that bad. Here are my reasons:


Most will never see ALV +15. Guys are done above the ALV unless they want to fly more. For every unlucky guy that gets nailed with the 16 hour trip at ALV-1 another will get the 11 hour trip at ALV-10.



So basically a guy has just as much of a chance to be done at ALV+1 as ALV +15. Lets just assume the average guy that is forced to fly over ALV will end up around ALV + 7.5 (law of averages).


ALV + 15 only helps toward the months end. As I have said before the constraints for reserves are usually Holidays, Weekends, and IROP events. ALV + 15 does nothing for these for at least the first three weeks of the months.


So if the company tries to significantly cut back on reserves assigned there will be less reserves for the weekends, holidays, and IROPs. This will result in more white-slips, green-slips, or cancellations.


Don't get me wrong - there will be a few guys who get hosed by ALV + 15 and will probably end up with ALV + 14:55 and get ridden hard and put away wet, so to speak. But that happens to guys randomly every summer. Maybe a few more guys will get abused, hell probably a few more guys, but for the reasons I listed above I don't think it will significantly affect the majority of guys on reserve.


I have been on and off reserve for 13+ years and this is how I see it. I am interested in hearing the opinions of the guys who think the ALV +15 will really kill us. Not just "we will all be abused on reserve" but specifically how it will go down and how ALV + 15 will contribute to more that a few guys getting abused.


Finally, you can argue that even one guy getting abused by ALV + 15 is one guy too many. This is a different argument and one that I don't necessarily disagree with, but that is a whole different issue - I want to know how the ALV + 15 issue will be as overwhelmingly negative for the whole Pilot group as some on here seem to think.


Scoop

Originally Posted by Jack Bauer

I think you might be surprised what they can do with programming these days. I promise as sure as the world is round this whole ALV+15 and where people stack up as they approach that number will be finessed so that more often than not guys push right up under ALV and are good to go for another trip. I've seen this dog and pony show before. The company got what they wanted and they WILL use it to their maximum benefit. End of story.

Originally Posted by johnso29

As I said before, only time will tell. Anything else at this point is pure conjecture.

Originally Posted by johnso29

As I said before, only time will tell. Anything else at this point is pure conjecture.

Originally Posted by Purple Drank

Why would the company negotiate for something they didn't intend to exploit? They are supposed to get as much out of us as they possibly can. It's their fiduciary duty.

Just like ALPA is supposed to do on our behalf.

Oops.

Originally Posted by Jack Bauer

Set a date on your iPhone 24 months from now and lets get actual reports from actual reserves and see how they feel about the ALV+15 and how it's being used regardless of what the ALPA marketing machine says about C2012 being such a fantastic deal and who really won. I'm counting on you to have that discussion. 24 months. Don't forget.