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Old 02-22-2013, 11:59 AM
  #123561  
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Originally Posted by Ferd149
If this happens, I'll be wrong AGAIN......I figured the days of the 4 engine airliner were done. The logistics train on a 4 engine jet have to be huge. But, if you get them cheep enough up front I can see how it works out.

Plus, the added bonus is T finally gets to fly his Whale.........he won't tell ya but that's what he really wants to do
Only if they get more than 4 destinations.
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Old 02-22-2013, 12:18 PM
  #123562  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
Management also stated that the very survival of the airline depended on getting down to 3 fleet types. I guess they now think training is not a big issue.
Nope, just box up some manuals and ship a CD, expense the shipping to the employee.
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Old 02-22-2013, 12:24 PM
  #123563  
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Originally Posted by thomas39
Guys and Gals,

What new airplanes and growth?

Did anyone besides me listen to the investors web cast December 12, 2012 where RA and others from DL management discussed Delta continuing the "capacity discipline that we have seen for the past 5 years, flat capacity to a downwards trend, no growth in 2013, Q1 capacity down 3%-4% with more reductions likely later in the year, 2014 to be flattish growth to even more total fleet reductions"?

Not my words or ideas. These came from RA and management. The whole web cast transcripts may be viewed here.

Delta Air Lines' CEO Hosts Investor Day Conference (Transcript) - Seeking Alpha

Its also on the Delta investor relations page thru today.
That was also pre-AA/US tie-up and AS favoring AA over DL code. My guess, the gloves are going to come off at some point. We've had our warts over the years but overall we have made huge improvements in almost every area and are solidly in a position to compete; again, cannot wait.
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Old 02-22-2013, 12:45 PM
  #123564  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
You also have to keep in mind who a investor conference is for and how wall street currently views capacity in the airline industry. The mainline at Delta is projected to grow.
So are you suggesting RA and others were not telling the truth or whole truth to investors in that webcast? Only time and the next couple of AEs will tell. Adding airframes doesn't guarantee growth when they are/will/maybe displace from several other fleets to staff the new one.

Not trying to start a fight, I am (like everyone) seeking the honest truth about what Delta's plans are for seniority movement. Either up or down I wish their projections would actually come close to reality down the road.

Remember what ALPA put out in their contract negotiators notepad FAQ June 11, 2012?

Q2 Is it true that, if approved, this TA will cost hundreds of Delta pilot jobs?

A2 No. This assertion is based on a simplistic and incomplete analysis of the TA. Changes to the ALV, TLV and the change in bid period length will likely result in a contractual staffing reduction of approximately 300 pilots. However, the Pilot Retirement Medical Account Program and other changes to the PWA such as the increases to the staffing formula and to vacation and CQ training pay are expected to more than compensate for this reduction. In fact, with the ratification of this TA, Flight Operations has recently stated, “If Delta can continue to execute its business plan, including the 717s, and barring an economic downturn or other unanticipated event, we could begin the hiring process as early as the last quarter of this year.”

Last quarter 2012. That was what we knew in June. Somehow it ended up like this in Nov/Dec: No plans for hiring at all in 2013. So what changed? We didn't experience an "economic downturn or other unanticipated event" did we?

I hope you are right and we do actually grow to staff the 717, not by displacing other categories and further capacity reductions.
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Old 02-22-2013, 12:51 PM
  #123565  
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Originally Posted by Columbia
That's OK. The market is smarter than most. Long term, traders can't outperform the market. The best hedge fund guys can't do more than 10% per annum over the long term.
BTW, where's that guy who convinced quite a few folks to sink everything they own into gold?
Threatening to beat people up at roadshows last I heard...
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Old 02-22-2013, 12:51 PM
  #123566  
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Originally Posted by johnso29
A few years back turned you into one cynical cat. Lol.
Im having trust issues

TEN
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Old 02-22-2013, 01:19 PM
  #123567  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
Management also stated that the very survival of the airline depended on getting down to 3 fleet types. I guess they now think training is not a big issue.
Lol, that's why Standard Text is such Hogwash. Ten years from now we will be doing something completely different.
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Old 02-22-2013, 01:26 PM
  #123568  
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Originally Posted by thomas39
So are you suggesting RA and others were not telling the truth or whole truth to investors in that webcast? Only time and the next couple of AEs will tell. Adding airframes doesn't guarantee growth when they are/will/maybe displace from several other fleets to staff the new one.

Not trying to start a fight, I am (like everyone) seeking the honest truth about what Delta's plans are for seniority movement. Either up or down I wish their projections would actually come close to reality down the road.

Remember what ALPA put out in their contract negotiators notepad FAQ June 11, 2012?

Q2 Is it true that, if approved, this TA will cost hundreds of Delta pilot jobs?

A2 No. This assertion is based on a simplistic and incomplete analysis of the TA. Changes to the ALV, TLV and the change in bid period length will likely result in a contractual staffing reduction of approximately 300 pilots. However, the Pilot Retirement Medical Account Program and other changes to the PWA such as the increases to the staffing formula and to vacation and CQ training pay are expected to more than compensate for this reduction. In fact, with the ratification of this TA, Flight Operations has recently stated, “If Delta can continue to execute its business plan, including the 717s, and barring an economic downturn or other unanticipated event, we could begin the hiring process as early as the last quarter of this year.”

Last quarter 2012. That was what we knew in June. Somehow it ended up like this in Nov/Dec: No plans for hiring at all in 2013. So what changed? We didn't experience an "economic downturn or other unanticipated event" did we?

I hope you are right and we do actually grow to staff the 717, not by displacing other categories and further capacity reductions.

No. They weren't telling lies. When management states that capacity will be flat, that does not mean that mainline can't grow. By parking RJs and adding B717s and B737s you can keep Delta Air Lines capacity flat while increasing mainline capacity. If you're going to refer to the Investor's Day presentation, you need to include the slide which shows the mainline fleet growing by 70+ airframes over the next 2-3 years.

You also need to keep in mind that 150 military leave pilots have returned since contract ratification.
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Old 02-22-2013, 01:37 PM
  #123569  
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Originally Posted by thomas39
So are you suggesting RA and others were not telling the truth or whole truth to investors in that webcast? Only time and the next couple of AEs will tell. Adding airframes doesn't guarantee growth when they are/will/maybe displace from several other fleets to staff the new one.

Not trying to start a fight, I am (like everyone) seeking the honest truth about what Delta's plans are for seniority movement. Either up or down I wish their projections would actually come close to reality down the road.

Remember what ALPA put out in their contract negotiators notepad FAQ June 11, 2012?

Q2 Is it true that, if approved, this TA will cost hundreds of Delta pilot jobs?

A2 No. This assertion is based on a simplistic and incomplete analysis of the TA. Changes to the ALV, TLV and the change in bid period length will likely result in a contractual staffing reduction of approximately 300 pilots. However, the Pilot Retirement Medical Account Program and other changes to the PWA such as the increases to the staffing formula and to vacation and CQ training pay are expected to more than compensate for this reduction. In fact, with the ratification of this TA, Flight Operations has recently stated, “If Delta can continue to execute its business plan, including the 717s, and barring an economic downturn or other unanticipated event, we could begin the hiring process as early as the last quarter of this year.”

Last quarter 2012. That was what we knew in June. Somehow it ended up like this in Nov/Dec: No plans for hiring at all in 2013. So what changed? We didn't experience an "economic downturn or other unanticipated event" did we?

I hope you are right and we do actually grow to staff the 717, not by displacing other categories and further capacity reductions.
I know from past post you understand what has happened. If you read what you posted again it talks about the changes in the contract and how there were offsets to sections that decreased jobs. The company has so far done every thing they hinted at if the contract was ratified except hire some pilots this winter. Note they said start the process not hire in 2012. Hiring was always planned for 2013.
There were 2 things that changed. The ER program did not produce the upfront number of pilots hoped for however overall it is better for the pilot group since the pilots who went were much younger then the targeted group. The second was a large number of pilots returning from Mil Leave. 130 to 140 were the last numbers I heard with more each month. Even with both those items flight ops still wanted to hire but did not get funding. They now plan to start the process this fall for classes next winter. The end result for pilot advancement 3 years from now will be exactly what was stated upfront if not a bit better with the younger ER participants.
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Old 02-22-2013, 01:40 PM
  #123570  
seeing the large hubs...
 
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If 747-400s are a possibility, what routes would network use them on? As much as some people would love to see DTW-PHX service with them, probably a pipe dream. Sooo....

Probably not main-hub to large city (non-sky team hub) in Europe. While FRA and MAD are busy places, it's probable better to serve them from hubs with smaller airplanes.

Definitely not hub to hub or big city to big city within the US. "People want freq.".

The market that does work for a -400 is big hub to big Skyteam hub. Routes like JFK-LHR (slot controlled so big airplane is better), DTW/ATL/JFK to AMS or CDG would feed each other hubs well and keep CASM down. Also would feed Skyteam cargo.

That's my guess if Delta is looking at big airplanes to buy.
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