Wilbur Wright

The 747s don't have to be replacement jets for the 787 to be fNWA seats. If they were 777s they would be for original Delta.

It's almost two years before the fences come down so it would be great to get more wide bodies before then no matter which side of the fence they belong.

NERD

Carl, pineapple guy, sailing, slow and the gang have been saying that for a couple of years:-D

MrBojangles

Wouldn't surprise me if this were true. It also would not surprise me if they're going to use these as a bargaining chip for our next contract coming up. "We will get these 747's if you let DCI have some e-190's or operate those mitsubishi jets that skywest ordered."

n9810f

If true, can't blame Boeing on the 773. Can you? That plane is the best in the biz at what it does right now and they're having no problems selling them, so why give Delta a deal?

sailingfun

I would love for Carl's rumor to be true but the values quoted are way off. Older 747-400's are trading for scrape value. There are 52 in storage with no buyers. Last June the average value was 36 million or about 1/6 the price of a 777. Hopefully we are getting the airframes but the price better be a whole lot less then a 777 or we are being taken!

Phuz

Don't you think that the people who do your airframe purchasing are probably up to speed on that sort of thing?

LOBO

I thought the five year point was up at the end of this year?

johnso29

I believe the fences fall 5 years from date of SOC.

forgot to bid

You know we get knocked around here for rumors, but there is nothing wrong with rumors. I don't think rumors originate out of thin air most of the time but rather we hear them because former line pilots and friends of pilots working on/investigating a project have loose lips. But that doesn't mean the project isn't real. It might not get approved, but it may have been studied all the way down to seeing the plausibility with it in different departments.

So would Delta acquire a bunch of used 747-400s?

1) I hope so.

2) Carl's source said Delta wants 773s. Boeing's price is too high? What is Boeing's current price?

• B772LR $291.2M B777 prices
• B773ER $315.0M B777 prices
• B777F $295.7M B777 prices
• B748I $351.4M B747 prices
• B748F $352.0M B747 prices
• Actual 772LR price paid by Delta B772 N701DN

3) Would we really want the 773?

• RA this past week in Seattle in an interview with the Puget Sound Business Journal made this comment about the 739, could the same thought process apply to 773 as well?
  
  Quote:

  “We’re satisfied with the Boeing order we have and the options we have,” he said. “We like being the customers on a mature airplane that’s stretched, economics are good on the airplane. It’s a very reliable aircraft.”
  "We need certainty about when [787/A350] are going to come.”
  “Regularity and dependabilty is really important in our business,” he said. “Boeing will get through the 787-8 launch, the airplane will mature, and we’ll be interested in taking look at 787-9 and A350 once those airplanes materialize.”
• Well, it doesn't look like we want the 748:
  Quote:

  And up on the top range of his fleet, Anderson has no plans to replace Delta’s 16 Boeing 747-400s with new 747-8s, and certainly not with even larger Airbus A380s, he said.
  Delta CEO prefers stability over flash in aircraft fleet - Puget Sound Business Journal

4) Carl's source says Boeing would not budge. Why would Boeing not want to budge?

• The 773 is popular, 15 hours ago LH ordered 20 more Lufthansa Set To Buy Six Boeing 777-300ERs For Swiss
• On 01FEB American upped their order from 15 773s to 20: American ups 777-300ER backlog to 20, CEO says
• Boeing to boost production to help cut wait of more than three years to deliver new 777: Boeing Says 777 Backlog Damps Sales as Airlines Shun Wait - Bloomberg
• Boeing's order books:

5) Carl's source says Boeing has 11 747-400s on the used car lot with low miles and previously owned by non-smokers who only drove them on the highway if ever. Are there used 744s out there?

• There are 10 744s listed on Boeing.com Boeing.com Used 744 Lot
• Globalplanesearch.com has (to the best of my counting ability and after removing all of the 744Fs and BCF models) 36 744-400 passenger jets for sale of which 22 are what Delta would refer to as "they are young" jets and are less than 20 years of age. APCF crowd would refer to them as "of legal age".Other 744s for sale.
• Globalplanesearch.com lists a 93 model for $18M, 92 for $20M, 92 for $26M and 97 for $23M. Other 744s for sale.
• Planespotters.net lists that there are about 20 744s (as best I can count) stored, not written off, that are under 20 years of age: 744 Stored
• Who knows where these planes are coming from or from what airline or whether there are customers willing to trade in 744s for those 748s Boeing is desperate to sell. Boeing warns about unclaimed 747-8 production slots

6) Would Boeing really give us barely used 744s for half the price of a 773?

• Another view of previous article, possibly Boeing needs to move used 744s off the used market to point customers towards new 748s:Boeing warns about unclaimed 747-8 production slots
• Delta isn't doing Boeing many favors by suing the U.S. Export-Import bank over subsidies that benefit Boeing. Delta Air Lines sues U.S. Export-Import Bank over subsidies | Reuters
• Delta is in the process of evaluating whether to acquire more 737s or A320s (not Max or NEO versions) and having either OEM take 50-seaters off its hands in the process. Could a 744 deal be a part of the package? Delta Said to Talk With Airbus, Boeing on Jet Purchase - Bloomberg
• Was the original 739 order a part of a package deal with the 717s, Boeing and SWA? August 2011: Delta to order 100 737-900s, delays order for 100 other small narrowbody aircraft. Followed by: May 2012: Delta to acquire entire AirTran 717 fleet

7) Would Delta do it?

• Richard Anderson 01/22/2013
  
  Quote:

  Well, first airlines and Delta in particular have to take the cost of capital into account with making investment decisions around the fleet. And what we have done at Delta is adopted a strategy of making sure that we use our shareholders’ money, we use that money prudently to get returns from day one a fleet investment. So, we have the right mix going forward. If you look at our wide-body fleet the average age of the wide-body fleet is 13 to 14 years.
• Was there another reason RA was in Seattle this past week and now we get this tidbit from Carl?
  
  Quote:

  During a visit to Seattle this week to lecture on leadership at the University of Washington Foster School of Business, Delta Air Lines CEO Anderson offered some surprises as he took a few minutes to share his views on aircraft acquisition and fleet management.
  Delta CEO prefers stability over flash in aircraft fleet - Puget Sound Business Journal

So with all of that said and referenced, I ask, DALAD, are you buying or selling what Carl heard?

I am buying and going long.

Standby for input from people who actually know what they're talking about.

forgot to bid

Man APCF had a cow when I posted that, it took forever to load it.