forgot to bid

The thing about a pump and dump, to get to 255/0 76/70-seaters under the old PWA from where we are now would've required going from 720 jets to 806 while parking 102 70-seaters and then dumping mainline back down.It seems an awfully laborious, capacity growing and expensive way to have 255 76-seaters instead of 153/102 as they have now. I'd hate to be on those investor calls.

The easier way would be to use the 717s you already were going to acquire as leverage to drop the 806 requirement and throw in a ratio set at status quo at mainline : DCI@450 jets.

TOGA LK

FTB has talent. I have double checked his numbers on several occasions, they always add up. I would very much like to see a guy like FTB in such a position to shoot holes and play devils advocate, the reality is he would be bored. IMHO, there is not currently such an individual at Herndon or in Atlanta working for the MEC.

forgot to bid

Reminds me of Top Gun, what's the number to that trucking school?

Because while Slowplay PM's 80ktsclamp with the trucking school number, he continues to PM me with the Clown College number and a note "You'll be the valedictorian for the first time in your life!"

forgot to bid

j29, one last string of thoughts on the subject (maybe) and thanks for the cordial discussion.

Contract 2012

Delta:

1. 50 seat RJs are unpopular with our passengers and their CASM is too high and their killing out balance sheet especially if they go into heavy maintenance.
2. We have too many RJs.
3. We have too many 50 seat RJs and not enough 70/76 seat RJs.
4. We want more 70/76 seaters beyond 255 but the PWA will not allow it.
5. We want more 76 seaters then we have now but the PWA will not allow it. Unless we grow from 720 jets which is a size we like up to 800+ mainline jets and even then we have to park relatively new 70 seaters on a 1:1 trade. To grow that much would be bad on our balance sheet, our partnerships and capacity discipline path.
6. We are going to acquire SWA's 717s and we're going to try and squeeze SWA as much as we can on the price. We want every 717 ever made. Scream bucking bar, long live McDonnell Douglas.
7. Must be no worse than cost neutral.
8. We want the TA done now.

NC:

1. We want DCI to shrink.
2. We want the size of DCI to be directly linked to the size of our domestic mainline operation in the only metric we think matters which is pilot block hours.
3. We want to include turboprops in size restrictions and caps, not just jets.
4. Everything is on the table.
5. We understand if there is something we want then we know what we are willing to give up to get it.
6. We want a pay raise.

End Result

• In order to get the 717s, the pilot must vote YES immediately on the first TA and agree to the following:
• DCI will shrink to an optimum size, but, the 255 cap must be lifted to 325. The PWA must add 70 more 76 seaters without having to park any 70-seaters and no more growth beyond the 767 mainline merger fleet size.
• Change jets to aircraft so as to include turboprops that Delta in their right mind would never want anyways.
• A BH ratio will ensure the size of DCI does not grow while mainline shrinks.
• The BH ratio, however, will not force mainline to grow beyond what it is right now. If Delta sees the need to grow then that's their prerogative but the ratio will NOT have to increase as mainline grows.
• IF mainline does shrink below the 1.56 ratio, DCI will be reduced but the 70-76 seaters do not have to be reduced. The cuts can come from the 50 seaters.

your mileage may vary, it's just my thought.

DeadHead

A guide to writing like Sailingfun.....

1.) Don't ever ask a question.

2.) Write each statement as fact.

3.) Belittle other peoples' assumptions, while making many assumptions yourself.

4.) Measure every TA criticism against any of several DALPA induced Plan B doomsday scenarios. (Plausibility Not-Required)

5.) Rhetorical Statement. (Not even sure how one goes about making one)

6.) Be as matter-of-fact as possible. (More matter, than fact)

7.) Insult the opinions of others.

8.) Convince yourself that only your point of view is of importance.

9.) When someone disagrees with you, see number 7.

10.) Believe that what you write is the be-all/end-all to everything that is Delta. (You must truly believe this with all your heart)

johnso29

I'm not contesting that the 50 seater is a threat, but if the company signs a commitment to fly them we have zero guarantee that they will be out the door early. As a mentioned earlier, prior to Delta buying 9E they actually extended their 50 seat contract. We can attempt to call their bluff, but at what cost? Do we go years without a contract?

To be fair, the EB quote you provided is from 24OCT12 which is post ratification date. He was able to make that statement because our contract facilitated the actions, correct? How does that statement prove the 50 seaters were on their way out regardless?

Anyway, I too appreciate the cordial debate. We should probably just agree to disagree. Unless you want to keep going, in order to prevent ourselves from saying something stupid to our wives.

Purple Drank

Are you confident that DALPA is able/willing to enforce those contractual ratios?

forgot to bid

Well, the reason I keep talking about this subject is because we could very well have a new contract sooner than planned if we merge. I want the ratio up and I don't want to see any more purchasing our own airplanes to fly by raising the limit on how many large jets can be outsourced.

That said, going back to EB's comments both in the Q2 and Q3 transcripts, I think it's fair to say that CR2s didn't become unpopular with our passengers starting in July of 2012. They were unpopular before.

And before July I'm certain the CR9 already was better in CASMs, popularity and on the balance sheet than the CR2. All of this was known. But imagine if last April they had said these very things? We'd have a quote to point to and say "the CR2s really are dying and we don't have to give up more 70+ seaters to get rid of them!" Instead, we heard about GTFs on CR2s and how we were going to order 700 or 1000 or something Q400s.

Also, just imagine if last April Delta had been approaching B&A about ordering more jets if they agree to take 50 seaters off our hands? Adding more 70 seaters would've really been a harder sell then.

But trust me, I know what the stamp of approval and the time value of money on a 4-6.5-1-1 raise plays into a TA passing.

johnso29

Yes. I am confident they will.

Scoop

Moby,

What you state above is similar to what I have heard except for what I have bolded. They way I heard it was that DAL got a really high rate on our 777 after a long drawn out fight outside of section 6. UAL then piggybacked on our 777 rate for their whole contract.

FWIW I have heard several permutations of this story - perhaps Timbo, Wasatch, or Sailing can give us the whole story.

Scoop