Sink r8

Okay, the AMR/US Airways merger seems like it's almost a done deal. Who would like to bet on what happens immediately thereafter?

If I had to guess, I would imagine that the first big surprise is that United would make a play for JetBlue. Immediately followed by Delta making a play for Alaska Airlines. DOJ panicks. They ask for huge concessions, and one or more of the deals comes close to falling apart. This wipes out Delta's headstart, but we end up with three powerhouse networks and a rational industry. AMR ends up with a fantastic network, but never manages to make the employee piece of the puzzle fit.

The rational industry remains rational for about two years. After that, somebody decides they have to grow market share. Brief periods of bonuses ensue. I upgrade. Pandemonium then errupts. I get displaced.

Home Depot stores in the Seattle area start giving away a free 787 with the purchase of a new lawnmower.

After that, my crystal ball gets a little cloudy.

80ktsClamp

So CO guys hired in 06 are able to hold 737 captain on their latest bid.

Yowza

Elliot

I was reading the articles today and thinking the same thing. (Not about your upgrade, ensuing pandemonium, and ultimate displacement, but about the merger and what dominoes fall next.)

My question. What amount of divestiture will the newly merged AMR/US have to give, and what does that mean to the already merged Delta & United route maps? I'd think the competition is going to wait and see what property Douggie has to give back to the DOT, due to the DOJ ruling (good thing we operate in a deregulated industry), prior to making a play on the next series of industry consolidation.

Interesting times in the transportation industry.

GJ

Sink r8

The only piece that I wasn't kidding about was the first.

I actually don't think AMR would have to divest much at all, except maybe at DCA.

I was thinking we might immediately bid for Alaska, assuming there isn't an agreement already in place. Then I wondered if UAL would simply sit still, and how the remaning piece, Jet Blue, fits in the picure...

badflaps

Not to worry, in 7 to 10 years, it will all be Pan-Amtrak.

forgot to bid

I really feel for ATL ATC today. For some reason 9R wasn't available and the GS was out on rwy 10, ceiling overcast sometime broken at minimums. With gusts, shears and rain. After at least one go around they brought guys in for 9L and that required launching guys off 9R. What a headache.

johnso29

The SLI will be a disaster. I think once an ISL is complete that will be corrected.

Free Mason

You think that is impressive look at the junior EWR 756 hire date.

Free Mason

2005 hires on the L-CAL side where 737 Capt's prior to the last down turn as well. A late 2006 hire is in the 30-40% range on the 756 in EWR as well. 2005 Hires are 777 line holders in IAH

forgot to bid

That's all out of seniority. There is no way that can happen. If you make it to the 767 right seat in less than ten years then it's a fluke and you didn't earn it.