Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
01-07-2013, 07:42 AM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,014
The only REAL loser in the scheme is the workaday diligent saver / investor. The rug is progressively pulled out from under him as he gets older. There is no real way to protect oneself from the semi-invisible march of inflation aka the invisible tax (on responsibility).
What really really really torques me is the rewarding of irresponsibility.
What really really really torques me is the rewarding of irresponsibility.
Good post.
01-07-2013, 07:56 AM
Get's Every Day Off
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Retired
Posts: 1,860
NYC Visit
Anyone have a recommendation for a place to stay near Times Square. Wife and I are going to "do NY" in Feb. Also...is the New York Pass worth it if planning to do the tourist things?
01-07-2013, 07:57 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,233
I agree, remember that the company is running every WB fleet through interior mod lines and that resulted in a reduced staffing amount for the larger fleets, once the 7ER fleet and then the 330's are finished with the mods there will be a serious uptick in staffing requirements for the WB fleets. I do not know what the mod lines mean in regards to reduced staffing but it probably runs about 15 crews per plane, and there are 3-5 mod lines running, so that could mean 90-150 pilots less in the staffing needs for the length of time needed for the mods to be completed.
01-07-2013, 08:01 AM
Moderator
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: DAL 330
Posts: 6,945
The concept I have a difficult time wrapping my head around is the effect of leverage, especially on the scale some of our bankers use it.
Dick Cheney famously said "deficits don't matter." Could he be right?
Lets say a guy takes 1 million from his savings and retirement and invests it in a business. He still shows $1 million, the business shows a million and with interest rates where they are at, might as well borrow a million (and the bank's deposits are just another guy's savings) ... so now my business has $2 million and I've got my million on paper too, for a total show of $3 million in assets. Magic, as long as you can make the payments. Now, we buy a couple million in houses from Courthouse foreclosure sales for around 50 cents on the dollar. If we can appraise them right 3 million becomes 6, and we can borrow against that equity. So, in this example the money supply has not increased, but by investing, there is a lot of cash floating around this little business.
That's leverage of 1 to 1, then 2 to one and finally 3 to 1. The average for banks is 9 to 1 and I think the investment banks got up to 34 to 1 in 2008.
When the liquidity ponzi schemes came cashing down, nearly all investors lost a lot of money. Where did that money go? It was in the money supply, but now it is gone. My business partner lost somewhere around 1.6 million total in 2008 and since his investments went to zero (Fannie, Freddie, GM Preferred stock, etc ...) he did not recover with the market. That cash is out of circulation.
My question is, do losses like his offset the increase in the money supply created by deficit spending?
Another question, what about when all this money is created ... can't we create much more money through leverage than the government ever dreamed of creating?
And, when our economy grows, don't we need more money? If you have a monopoly game with 1,000,000,000 players ... you are going to need more money than the game comes with .....
Dick Cheney famously said "deficits don't matter." Could he be right?
Lets say a guy takes 1 million from his savings and retirement and invests it in a business. He still shows $1 million, the business shows a million and with interest rates where they are at, might as well borrow a million (and the bank's deposits are just another guy's savings) ... so now my business has $2 million and I've got my million on paper too, for a total show of $3 million in assets. Magic, as long as you can make the payments. Now, we buy a couple million in houses from Courthouse foreclosure sales for around 50 cents on the dollar. If we can appraise them right 3 million becomes 6, and we can borrow against that equity. So, in this example the money supply has not increased, but by investing, there is a lot of cash floating around this little business.
That's leverage of 1 to 1, then 2 to one and finally 3 to 1. The average for banks is 9 to 1 and I think the investment banks got up to 34 to 1 in 2008.
When the liquidity ponzi schemes came cashing down, nearly all investors lost a lot of money. Where did that money go? It was in the money supply, but now it is gone. My business partner lost somewhere around 1.6 million total in 2008 and since his investments went to zero (Fannie, Freddie, GM Preferred stock, etc ...) he did not recover with the market. That cash is out of circulation.
My question is, do losses like his offset the increase in the money supply created by deficit spending?
Another question, what about when all this money is created ... can't we create much more money through leverage than the government ever dreamed of creating?
And, when our economy grows, don't we need more money? If you have a monopoly game with 1,000,000,000 players ... you are going to need more money than the game comes with .....
Bar/Scambo et al,
I highly recommend the following book for an in depth look at all of the above issues:
The Creature from Jekyll Island
by G. Edward Griffin
Although it sounds like a horror story
(it actually is) it is about the Federal Reserve. Jekyll Island was the place where a bunch of Big Wigs got together and cooked up the whole concept of the Fed.Originally written in 1994 it has pretty much been spot on about what has happened since. It has also been updated and is now up to the 4th or 5th edition.
Scoop
01-07-2013, 08:11 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,943
Vacation bid question....Going to Philmount with my son this summer and would like to get two weeks in a row to cover the time...how do you fill it out for that....put week # and the 2 for the number of weeks requested? Then, do you follow it up with a CYA of just the one week # later...? Or, is it best to try and get the next week on a follow on secondary week bid? I'm sure that there is a gouge on the DALPA site but I am too lazy to go and look.
I did Philmont and it was a great backpacking trek. 90 some miles mainly in the northern half and out of the property and into Kit Carson for 3-4 days. Baldy Mountain was fun if you do that.
01-07-2013, 08:12 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 4,958
Sailing, personally I love your posts, they never fail to pump me up, but here is a few numbers.
According to the ALPA’s bid monitor released on 4jan13:
Jan 2012 – Jan 2013:
10 guys came back from furlough
119 came back from the mil leaves
30 came back from sick leave
It is wonderful to see guys coming back, but with this “effective hiring”:
Number of Instructors (SLI) shrunk by 27.
Pilots required number shrunk by 138.
Total number of pilots has shrunk by 257.
According to the ALPA’s bid monitor released on 4jan13:
Jan 2012 – Jan 2013:
10 guys came back from furlough
119 came back from the mil leaves
30 came back from sick leave
It is wonderful to see guys coming back, but with this “effective hiring”:
Number of Instructors (SLI) shrunk by 27.
Pilots required number shrunk by 138.
Total number of pilots has shrunk by 257.
01-07-2013, 09:06 AM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
01-07-2013, 09:36 AM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,014
2013 Predictions ... good for Delta
Source - Boyd group, with spin from yours' truly...
- SWA + AirTran is learning that Southwest's cost structure is making it impossible to make a profit on a substantial amount of AirTran flying. Expect less SWA + AT flying at PHL and expect they will de-hub ATL, making ATL a O & D airport.
- If US Air and American get together (which appears likely) expect a shift from JFK to PHL as they take advantage of US Air's feed network. In balance, there will probably be a shift from PHX to DFW.
- Delta current spills a lot of revenue which is not being carried on 50 seaters. The 76 seat jet provides 52% more seats for around 13 to 16% more cost. The revenue picture is prettier still. The 717 will also capture some of this revenue, but costs more and offers a bit too much capacity. ( still need a 100 seater )
- Continued revenue growth for Delta and some of the capital expenses (terminals in NYC, our new RJ alter ego, and an oil refinery) will pay off in 2013. I think we're winning New York.
Source - Boyd group, with spin from yours' truly...
01-07-2013, 09:37 AM
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Narrow/Left Wide/Right
Posts: 3,655
Aloha,
LUV
01-07-2013, 09:45 AM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
The word of the day in regards to the Feb or March AE via the February Crew Resources memo appears to be "overstaffed."
Bidding the 717 might be a pretty good deal for those who want the summer off!
edit- and look at how much lower feb 2013 international flying is than feb 2012... yikes! That's not capacity restraint, that's complete shrinkage.
Bidding the 717 might be a pretty good deal for those who want the summer off!
edit- and look at how much lower feb 2013 international flying is than feb 2012... yikes! That's not capacity restraint, that's complete shrinkage.
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