Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
11-19-2012, 03:21 AM
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Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: Left, left, left right left....
Posts: 911
Red - Pre-1986 merger original NWA
Green - Republic pilots at time of 1986 merger
Blue - NWA hires after 1986 merger
Roberts Rule - 20 year fence separating "Red" and "Green" positions brought into the merger; expired in 2006
Ninjas - Red pilot faction fighting to insure separation of those positions
True story: Me, 2007 (post Roberts), eating at the Subway in MSP. Across the way, an NWA captain talking loudly on his phone, exclaiming he would never "let those Green guys screw me." There are those who will never move past this, 26 years after it all started, and 6 years after it ended. Too bad. Don't feed the trolls.
Green - Republic pilots at time of 1986 merger
Blue - NWA hires after 1986 merger
Roberts Rule - 20 year fence separating "Red" and "Green" positions brought into the merger; expired in 2006
Ninjas - Red pilot faction fighting to insure separation of those positions
True story: Me, 2007 (post Roberts), eating at the Subway in MSP. Across the way, an NWA captain talking loudly on his phone, exclaiming he would never "let those Green guys screw me." There are those who will never move past this, 26 years after it all started, and 6 years after it ended. Too bad. Don't feed the trolls.
Billions - one to hold the light bulb and the rest to turn the planet around them.
How many Green Book?
Ten - one to change the light bulb and the rest to reminisce about the way they used to do it.
Blue Book?
None. They are not allowed to touch light bulbs.
Adapt for latest merger or ALPA as appropriate
11-19-2012, 03:35 AM
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: Urban chicken rancher.
Posts: 6,070
Sounds like the reality of being stuck on a plane for 7 days is starting to set in.
Mutiny, Streaking and German Meat Chips: The Rihanna Plane Has Officially Descended Into Madness
Mutiny, Streaking and German Meat Chips: The Rihanna Plane Has Officially Descended Into Madness
11-19-2012, 03:56 AM
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Joined APC: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,530
Trainer refinery performs better than expected. DAL stock a buy with 10-20% near term upside.
Delta's Refinery Buy Looking Even Better ... Thanks To Hurricane Sandy - Seeking Alpha
Delta's Refinery Buy Looking Even Better ... Thanks To Hurricane Sandy
Back in September, I wrote that Delta's (DAL) decision to purchase an oil refinery from Philips 66 (PSX) was looking like a very smart decision in hindsight. As I noted in the previous article, initial sentiment about the refinery purchase varied widely. Airline analysts were generally positive about the move, agreeing that it would help Delta hedge against refining margins (and in the near term lower refining margins on an absolute basis). Executives elsewhere in the airline industry were cautiously optimistic; United Continental (UAL) CEO Jeff Smisek stated that his company would consider replicating the move if Delta's strategy works. By contrast, oil industry executives and analysts were perplexed, arguing that if the refinery was not economical for Philips 66, it was certain to be unprofitable for Delta.
Since I wrote the initial article, the Trainer refinery has re-started and reached full production rates. Delta is still in the midst of a project to increase the mix of jet fuel to a target of 52,000 bpd (out of 185,000 bpd total capacity). In the company's Q3 earnings report, released last month, Delta's management projected that the Trainer refinery will have a Q4 contribution to profit of breakeven-$25 million. Obviously, this is well below the $300 million annual savings run-rate that Delta projected when it announced the deal. However, as noted above, the refinery did not reach full output until November, as some units were still undergoing maintenance. Additionally, Delta has not yet optimized the mix of jet fuel.
Soon after the refinery restarted, it seemed that Mother Nature was going to take it out of service again. Hurricane Sandy forced most refineries in the Northeast to shut down or operate at reduced rates. Hess (HES) is just now restarting production at its Port Reading, NJ refinery, while Philips 66's Bayway refinery is still shut. Although the Trainer refinery is less than 100 miles from these hard hit sites, Delta was able to maintain power throughout the storm and continue running at normal rates.
As a result, while Delta's primary airline business lost $20 million in October profit due to Hurricane Sandy, Delta's refinery business will actually be a significant beneficiary of this tragedy. The shutdown of various refineries in the Northeast led to tight supplies and created a premium for oil products in the Northeast, compared to the rest of the country. Delta has off-take agreements with BP (BP) and Philips 66, whereby it trades refined products other than jet fuel in Pennsylvania for jet fuel elsewhere in the U.S. A major criticism of the deal was that Delta would not be getting a barrel of jet fuel for every barrel of oil it refines, because other petroleum products (such as gasoline) are not worth as much as jet fuel. However, the recent shortage of gasoline, heating oil and other refined products in the Northeast has significantly increased the value of the products Delta is supplying there.
As a result, Delta is probably realizing much better-than-projected trading rates for its refined products, and will continue to do so until Northeast supplies come back into balance (probably around the end of this month). For example, according to EIA data, Gulf Coast jet fuel traded at an average premium to NY gasoline of 27.7 cents/gallon in the two weeks prior to Hurricane Sandy's arrival. That premium narrowed to 22.1 cents for the week ended 11/2, and then to 10.4 cents in the week ended 11/9. As of Wednesday (the most recent day for which data is available), the premium was a mere 3.2 cents. Indeed, Gulf Coast jet fuel was actually trading at a discount to NY gasoline for several days last week!
The story has been similar for Gulf Coast jet fuel vs. NY heating oil. This is a particularly important comparison, because many airlines use NY heating oil as a hedge instrument, since it is the best proxy for jet fuel among regularly traded petroleum products. Over the past week, Gulf Coast jet fuel has traded at a discount of 4-6 cents to NY heating oil. In the first week after the storm, the discount stood at 10 cents. Yet for the rest of the year, Gulf Coast jet fuel has traded at a premium of 5-10 cents above NY heating oil.
On balance, I am conservatively estimating that Delta's refinery subsidiary will realize an extra $6 of revenue per barrel of oil (or 14 cents/gallon) it processes for the thirty days after Hurricane Sandy, due to the higher margins for Northeast refined products. This works out to a $33.3 million gain. I thus expect Delta to easily beat the high end of its $25 million target for the refinery's profit contribution. Moreover, with jet fuel spot prices on a steady downtrend over the past several weeks, Delta is likely to see quarterly fuel costs come in below the company's most recent projection of $3.15-$3.20/gallon.
As a result, there is upside to the average analyst estimate for EPS of 28 cents in Q4. On the basis of Delta's recent share price decline and the company's rock-bottom valuation, I think a catalyst of this sort could cause the stock price to rally by 10-20% over the next two months.
Delta's Refinery Buy Looking Even Better ... Thanks To Hurricane Sandy - Seeking Alpha
Delta's Refinery Buy Looking Even Better ... Thanks To Hurricane Sandy
Back in September, I wrote that Delta's (DAL) decision to purchase an oil refinery from Philips 66 (PSX) was looking like a very smart decision in hindsight. As I noted in the previous article, initial sentiment about the refinery purchase varied widely. Airline analysts were generally positive about the move, agreeing that it would help Delta hedge against refining margins (and in the near term lower refining margins on an absolute basis). Executives elsewhere in the airline industry were cautiously optimistic; United Continental (UAL) CEO Jeff Smisek stated that his company would consider replicating the move if Delta's strategy works. By contrast, oil industry executives and analysts were perplexed, arguing that if the refinery was not economical for Philips 66, it was certain to be unprofitable for Delta.
Since I wrote the initial article, the Trainer refinery has re-started and reached full production rates. Delta is still in the midst of a project to increase the mix of jet fuel to a target of 52,000 bpd (out of 185,000 bpd total capacity). In the company's Q3 earnings report, released last month, Delta's management projected that the Trainer refinery will have a Q4 contribution to profit of breakeven-$25 million. Obviously, this is well below the $300 million annual savings run-rate that Delta projected when it announced the deal. However, as noted above, the refinery did not reach full output until November, as some units were still undergoing maintenance. Additionally, Delta has not yet optimized the mix of jet fuel.
Soon after the refinery restarted, it seemed that Mother Nature was going to take it out of service again. Hurricane Sandy forced most refineries in the Northeast to shut down or operate at reduced rates. Hess (HES) is just now restarting production at its Port Reading, NJ refinery, while Philips 66's Bayway refinery is still shut. Although the Trainer refinery is less than 100 miles from these hard hit sites, Delta was able to maintain power throughout the storm and continue running at normal rates.
As a result, while Delta's primary airline business lost $20 million in October profit due to Hurricane Sandy, Delta's refinery business will actually be a significant beneficiary of this tragedy. The shutdown of various refineries in the Northeast led to tight supplies and created a premium for oil products in the Northeast, compared to the rest of the country. Delta has off-take agreements with BP (BP) and Philips 66, whereby it trades refined products other than jet fuel in Pennsylvania for jet fuel elsewhere in the U.S. A major criticism of the deal was that Delta would not be getting a barrel of jet fuel for every barrel of oil it refines, because other petroleum products (such as gasoline) are not worth as much as jet fuel. However, the recent shortage of gasoline, heating oil and other refined products in the Northeast has significantly increased the value of the products Delta is supplying there.
As a result, Delta is probably realizing much better-than-projected trading rates for its refined products, and will continue to do so until Northeast supplies come back into balance (probably around the end of this month). For example, according to EIA data, Gulf Coast jet fuel traded at an average premium to NY gasoline of 27.7 cents/gallon in the two weeks prior to Hurricane Sandy's arrival. That premium narrowed to 22.1 cents for the week ended 11/2, and then to 10.4 cents in the week ended 11/9. As of Wednesday (the most recent day for which data is available), the premium was a mere 3.2 cents. Indeed, Gulf Coast jet fuel was actually trading at a discount to NY gasoline for several days last week!
The story has been similar for Gulf Coast jet fuel vs. NY heating oil. This is a particularly important comparison, because many airlines use NY heating oil as a hedge instrument, since it is the best proxy for jet fuel among regularly traded petroleum products. Over the past week, Gulf Coast jet fuel has traded at a discount of 4-6 cents to NY heating oil. In the first week after the storm, the discount stood at 10 cents. Yet for the rest of the year, Gulf Coast jet fuel has traded at a premium of 5-10 cents above NY heating oil.
On balance, I am conservatively estimating that Delta's refinery subsidiary will realize an extra $6 of revenue per barrel of oil (or 14 cents/gallon) it processes for the thirty days after Hurricane Sandy, due to the higher margins for Northeast refined products. This works out to a $33.3 million gain. I thus expect Delta to easily beat the high end of its $25 million target for the refinery's profit contribution. Moreover, with jet fuel spot prices on a steady downtrend over the past several weeks, Delta is likely to see quarterly fuel costs come in below the company's most recent projection of $3.15-$3.20/gallon.
As a result, there is upside to the average analyst estimate for EPS of 28 cents in Q4. On the basis of Delta's recent share price decline and the company's rock-bottom valuation, I think a catalyst of this sort could cause the stock price to rally by 10-20% over the next two months.
11-19-2012, 04:13 AM
veut gagner à la loterie
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
Trainer refinery performs better than expected. DAL stock a buy with 10-20% near term upside.
Delta's Forgot to Bid Hiring Looking Even Better ... Thanks To Winter Uniforms
Back in September, I wrote that Delta's (DAL) decision to hire Forgot to Bid (FTB) was looking like a very smart decision in hindsight. As I noted in the previous article, initial sentiment about the hiring varied widely. Airline analysts were generally positive about the move, agreeing that it would help Delta hedge in favor of greater pilot sex appeal. Executives elsewhere in the airline industry were cautiously optimistic; United Continental (UAL) CEO Jeff Smisek stated that his company would consider replicating the FTB move if Delta's strategy works. By contrast, TMZ and other analysts were perplexed, arguing that if the FTB hiring was not going to improve the sexiness of the pilots at all, they screamed just look at him!? It's generally agreed by all analyst that unsexy pilots not wearing their uniforms correctly would certainly result in Delta being unprofitable.
Delta's Forgot to Bid Hiring Looking Even Better ... Thanks To Winter Uniforms
Back in September, I wrote that Delta's (DAL) decision to hire Forgot to Bid (FTB) was looking like a very smart decision in hindsight. As I noted in the previous article, initial sentiment about the hiring varied widely. Airline analysts were generally positive about the move, agreeing that it would help Delta hedge in favor of greater pilot sex appeal. Executives elsewhere in the airline industry were cautiously optimistic; United Continental (UAL) CEO Jeff Smisek stated that his company would consider replicating the FTB move if Delta's strategy works. By contrast, TMZ and other analysts were perplexed, arguing that if the FTB hiring was not going to improve the sexiness of the pilots at all, they screamed just look at him!? It's generally agreed by all analyst that unsexy pilots not wearing their uniforms correctly would certainly result in Delta being unprofitable.
11-19-2012, 04:25 AM
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Joined APC: Nov 2009
Position: C560XL/XLS/XLS+
Posts: 1,278
11-19-2012, 04:46 AM
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Joined APC: Jan 2011
Posts: 403
FlyZ,
No. If you want to get your family around efficiently on the west coast get familiar with ZED purchases on SWA and ALK. Both have been very good for my family. My wife uses them more often than non-reving on DAL out of SAN and LAX. You can also make it to a lot more places on DAL if you want to fly through SLC and risk an RJ. Not too reliable with weight issues and heavy loads.
Maybe some day DAL will expand its west coast routes with DAL metal but don't hold your breath.
Scoop
No. If you want to get your family around efficiently on the west coast get familiar with ZED purchases on SWA and ALK. Both have been very good for my family. My wife uses them more often than non-reving on DAL out of SAN and LAX. You can also make it to a lot more places on DAL if you want to fly through SLC and risk an RJ. Not too reliable with weight issues and heavy loads.
Maybe some day DAL will expand its west coast routes with DAL metal but don't hold your breath.
Scoop
I do have a good buddy at SWA though....hmmm...
Thanks,
FlyZ
11-19-2012, 04:56 AM
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Joined APC: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,242
All,
On a very sad note, one of our SEA A330 CA's passed away while on a layover in LAX this past weekend after arriving from HND. "Blue", as he was known to his Navy buddies, had taken the RMA and was planning to retire next March. A super pilot and a great guy, he will be sorely missed by those who knew him. He is survived by his wife of 30+ years and 3 sons. RIP "Blue"
On a very sad note, one of our SEA A330 CA's passed away while on a layover in LAX this past weekend after arriving from HND. "Blue", as he was known to his Navy buddies, had taken the RMA and was planning to retire next March. A super pilot and a great guy, he will be sorely missed by those who knew him. He is survived by his wife of 30+ years and 3 sons. RIP "Blue"
11-19-2012, 05:09 AM
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Joined APC: Nov 2010
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 405
I definitely get tired of the pre-merger color coding. Then again, politics annoy me to no end as it is. It appears to be 90% of what bigbusdriver knows what to talk about as it is.
I believe in this case, FDAL is "blue" and FNWA is "red," thus the "purple" references.
Blah blah blah, constructive engagement. We'll see how kingsley does. I'm just glad I got to cast my vote and he was elected by the majority!
I believe in this case, FDAL is "blue" and FNWA is "red," thus the "purple" references.
Blah blah blah, constructive engagement. We'll see how kingsley does. I'm just glad I got to cast my vote and he was elected by the majority!
11-19-2012, 05:35 AM
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Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Stay THIRSTY, my friends!
Posts: 1,898
All,
On a very sad note, one of our SEA A330 CA's passed away while on a layover in LAX this past weekend after arriving from HND. "Blue", as he was known to his Navy buddies, had taken the RMA and was planning to retire next March. A super pilot and a great guy, he will be sorely missed by those who knew him. He is survived by his wife of 30+ years and 3 sons. RIP "Blue"
On a very sad note, one of our SEA A330 CA's passed away while on a layover in LAX this past weekend after arriving from HND. "Blue", as he was known to his Navy buddies, had taken the RMA and was planning to retire next March. A super pilot and a great guy, he will be sorely missed by those who knew him. He is survived by his wife of 30+ years and 3 sons. RIP "Blue"
11-19-2012, 06:51 AM
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Joined APC: Jan 2009
Posts: 314
Short call question. You are in group 1 based on short calls (less than 3 sc's) but in bucket 2 based on Raw score (81 score +). If you are on short call and there are more senior pilots also on short call but in bucket 1 (based on Raw) the more senior pilot should get called first. Is this correct (days available are the same)? Here's what the contract says. Thanks.
S. Reserve Pilots
1. A reserve pilot will:
a. be awarded/assigned open time under Section 23 N. or O.
Note one: Open time will be assigned to reserve pilots (within days-of-availability groupings) beginning with the reserve pilots within the lowest RAW value grouping and then progressing to the reserve pilots within the next higher RAW value grouping.
Note two: Within days-of-availability groupings, reserve pilots whose RAW values are in the same RAW value grouping will be assigned open time in inverse seniority order unless one or more of them have submitted a yellow slip, in which case open time will be awarded in seniority order to the reserve pilot(s) who submitted a yellow slip for such open time.
S. Reserve Pilots
1. A reserve pilot will:
a. be awarded/assigned open time under Section 23 N. or O.
Note one: Open time will be assigned to reserve pilots (within days-of-availability groupings) beginning with the reserve pilots within the lowest RAW value grouping and then progressing to the reserve pilots within the next higher RAW value grouping.
Note two: Within days-of-availability groupings, reserve pilots whose RAW values are in the same RAW value grouping will be assigned open time in inverse seniority order unless one or more of them have submitted a yellow slip, in which case open time will be awarded in seniority order to the reserve pilot(s) who submitted a yellow slip for such open time.
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