Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
11-12-2012, 09:28 AM
meh
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 828
I don't understand the surprise and following negativity....
No net gain in airframes means: no need for more pilots.
A net gain in airframes means a need for more pilots!
DAL has announced a net increase in airframes being delivered starting in September/October of 2013....
Hiring will not start sooner than when pilots would be needed to fill the added seats. Follow the actions of upper management decisions, not the words of the talking head middle managers.
No net gain in airframes means: no need for more pilots.
A net gain in airframes means a need for more pilots!
DAL has announced a net increase in airframes being delivered starting in September/October of 2013....
Hiring will not start sooner than when pilots would be needed to fill the added seats. Follow the actions of upper management decisions, not the words of the talking head middle managers.
ADDITIONALLY, I would dispute your assumption of a net increase of airframes. In fact, Delta has said to investors several times that all of the airframe deals we have going on will be capacity neutral. They have repeatedly stated these are all replacement airplanes. Elsewhere they have published the "increase" of expected airframes to 793 (I think), but there is so much massaging of investors and doublespeak of mainline vs. DCI airframes and capacity and shifting airframe removal dates, that I don't believe anyone can reliably state we will be growing. Those who point to that single 793 number and ignore allllllll the other investor statements made on capacity neutral and airframe retirements are IMO being sold a bill of goods while wearing naive rosy glasses.
However, you are precisely right in your final analysis--follow the ACTIONS of leadership and not all the hyperbole. The ACTIONS show no hiring, repeated and constant shrinking, constant acceptance of west coast AK feed vs. competition, and reduction in pilot staffing needed through increased reserve utilization.
As a stockholder, I say "Bravo!". As a pilot, I am not required to be pleased that actions/results met expectations posted--I can absolutely be disheartened that my career is stagnated and shrinking.
I surely can be depressed that as of today, looking at the ALPA seniority calculator and all the category captain lists, and this month's actual lines awarded per category, I am projected to be able to hold a line as a Capt on the MD88 ANYWHERE in our system on the 22nd year of my career.
What generates the angst is the extinguishment of Hope. There was a massive up-sell by the Pro-TA folks, ALPA and company both, painting growth/hiring/hope. SD literally came out and said we'd be hiring TODAY if the TA passed and economics stayed the same (they have). All the usual suspects painted that same picture. Now, when the "narrow body retirement cleanup" bid comes out, it turns out that I have moved backwards by 1-2 spots in every category I can hold in LAX, SEA, SLC, MSP, DTW, and ATL. Again.
Of course biatching about advancement isn't the whole picture, and there's a zillion great things in life I, and others, are happy for... but this board doesn't get all that info, just mostly what's-down-with-Delta stuff, so of course there's a lot of disgruntlement expressed vs. "It's a Wonderful Life". It is a wonderful life, fly a trip with me and you'll see that's who I am... but RIGHT NOW, I freaking forgot to Bid for Dec, and I moved backwards again, so I'm going to go find a cat to kick.
11-12-2012, 09:28 AM
Kerbal Rocket Surgeon
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: DTW 717A
Posts: 1,099
11-12-2012, 09:34 AM
meh
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 828
But that's the very reason the airframes come in September. We go from running around like chickens with our heads cut off for 3 months at an ALV of 84 but then the block hours drop in September. So instead of dropping to an ALV of 72 we drop to an ALV of 76 to absorb the training load. It's an economies of scale issue. In a category of 75 line holders, a one hour change in ALV covers the absence of one pilot. If we only add 6 airframes a month, we add an hour of ALV to 12 categories, or a 12 hour increase in the global sum of ALV and we have the staffing issue covered. Hiring MUST commence shortly thereafter to absorb a full schedule of ALV=84 flying for summer 2014. Thus, the reason we won't ever be able to stop hiring, but the reason we've been able to dodge it thus far. Can't say that we weren't sold down the river on the TA thing, but this is the closest I can get to a legitimate, analytical answer regarding hiring (an answer absent the typical political infighting).
11-12-2012, 09:39 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,551
The ads are directed toward other similar sites you have visited. I guess we know who likes asians!
11-12-2012, 09:53 AM
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
NOT correct in some respects. A net gain in airframes ONLY means more hiring if the productivity of pilots stays the same. If productivity is increased and reserves required reduced (as it was with this contract), then the company is instantly overstaffed a bit, and does not need to hire for any new airframes... those just get us back to Mgt view of a good pilot ratio. Which is not in our interest for time off and QOL, but may be for a profitable and existing airline.
ADDITIONALLY, I would dispute your assumption of a net increase of airframes. In fact, Delta has said to investors several times that all of the airframe deals we have going on will be capacity neutral. They have repeatedly stated these are all replacement airplanes. Elsewhere they have published the "increase" of expected airframes to 793 (I think), but there is so much massaging of investors and doublespeak of mainline vs. DCI airframes and capacity and shifting airframe removal dates, that I don't believe anyone can reliably state we will be growing. Those who point to that single 793 number and ignore allllllll the other investor statements made on capacity neutral and airframe retirements are IMO being sold a bill of goods while wearing naive rosy glasses.
ADDITIONALLY, I would dispute your assumption of a net increase of airframes. In fact, Delta has said to investors several times that all of the airframe deals we have going on will be capacity neutral. They have repeatedly stated these are all replacement airplanes. Elsewhere they have published the "increase" of expected airframes to 793 (I think), but there is so much massaging of investors and doublespeak of mainline vs. DCI airframes and capacity and shifting airframe removal dates, that I don't believe anyone can reliably state we will be growing. Those who point to that single 793 number and ignore allllllll the other investor statements made on capacity neutral and airframe retirements are IMO being sold a bill of goods while wearing naive rosy glasses.
Capacity neutral does NOT refer to mainline flying. It refers to Delta Air Lines capacity. This is where so many people get tripped up. If you park 4 CRJ200's and replace them with 1.1 737-900ER's, that's capacity neutral. My math is likely off a little, but it proves the point. So you absolutely can increase Mainline airframes while maintaining neutral capacity.
11-12-2012, 10:06 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: DAL FO
Posts: 2,174
AD&D Coverage?
Anyone elect this? I'm going through the open enrollment stuff one final time and can't decide if it's worth it.
It looks pretty cheap, so I'm thinking about just doing it. Anyone have anythoughts, pros/cons, etc??
Thanks
It looks pretty cheap, so I'm thinking about just doing it. Anyone have anythoughts, pros/cons, etc??
Thanks
11-12-2012, 10:10 AM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
But that's the very reason the airframes come in September. We go from running around like chickens with our heads cut off for 3 months at an ALV of 84 but then the block hours drop in September. So instead of dropping to an ALV of 72 we drop to an ALV of 76 to absorb the training load. It's an economies of scale issue. In a category of 75 line holders, a one hour change in ALV covers the absence of one pilot. If we only add 6 airframes a month, we add an hour of ALV to 12 categories, or a 12 hour increase in the global sum of ALV and we have the staffing issue covered. Hiring MUST commence shortly thereafter to absorb a full schedule of ALV=84 flying for summer 2014. Thus, the reason we won't ever be able to stop hiring, but the reason we've been able to dodge it thus far. Can't say that we weren't sold down the river on the TA thing, but this is the closest I can get to a legitimate, analytical answer regarding hiring (an answer absent the typical political infighting).
The wild card of course is the rumored "moves" that the TA was supposed to free up DL to make in addition to the 717s.
11-12-2012, 10:11 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: 7er
Posts: 1,673
For the AE conversion window I think it runs Dec - May. Does this mean all pilots will be done with training by May or all pilots will begin training by May?
11-12-2012, 10:14 AM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
11-12-2012, 10:14 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: 7er
Posts: 1,673
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