MrBojangles

Found it! July 6, 2012 weekly update.

80ktsClamp

So the over/under is 3500 to 7000... That's almost as much wiggle room as he gave himself on hiring this fall.

Jack Bauer

Someone who gets it. Btw, just out of curiosity, tell me if this is right... with the number of retirements (3299) discussed in JG's email (over the next 10 years) that would put upgrade for a 2001 hire in an average seniority base at around......wait for it..........25 years plus?!! Those sitting in the left seat will keep assuring you what a good deal you got though.

Hey, I have a terrific idea for the next contract. Lets sell more work rules and increase productivity more for a few more sweaty dollars. I have a feeling the promise of shiny widebody jets that are in the plan already anyway will do the trick.

flyallnite

Do I really have to explain WHY overflying the NRT hub is bad for the NRT operation?

Overflying the hub means the hub is no longer viable. Less O&D traffic, less flights, less jobs for DL pilots. We essentially lose the 5th freedom rights we paid for, and get nothing in return except relegated to a bit player in the Pacific.

I'll give you an example. Over the past few years, we've flown the 777, 747, and A330 from NRT to MNL. Even considered an extra section 757 before the tsunami. If we could make money flying from the mainland to the Phillipines, we'd be doing it now. We can't. What we CAN do is make money flying Tokyo to the Phillippines. If we get shut out of HND and they give the slots to the Japanese carriers or to UAL, then it's goodbye to that revenue and those jobs. Anybody on a DL ticket can connect on KAL if they need to get there, but otherwise, we won't fly it. THAT is why the statement about overflying NRT gives me the chills.

Denny Crane

Jack, I get how you feel but you are painting with an awful broad brush here.....Next you will be telling me the economy is my fault too.

Denny

flyallnite

Well, here's what JG said...

"In Atlanta, we will continue to draw down the 767 domestic categories as the domestic 757/767 block hours are adjusted with the delivery of the 737-900s."

Jack Bauer

Not aimed at you Denny but there are some on here who already got theirs, now pushing the chess pieces so they get even more their last few years and selling the jr guys with rah rah rah it's all a good deal.

Brocc15

Yep. Exactly. It's so disparaging that a big fat "I told ya so" doesn't even feel good The dangling carrot of "hiring soon!" never turns out to be what was promised.

Roadkill

This, absolutely. All this economy talk is eyewash--nothing has changed since the TA was being sold and all the company strawmen were on here expounding on the upcoming hiring outlook. The reserve utilization giveback was an enormous blow to us, constantly justified by various posters as being "offset" by blah blah blah B S. Staffing is driven by the worst case reserve needs for Jul and Aug. We let them modify the days, and boost reserve ute from 68 hours to a potential 100ish, almost a 50% increase in utilization efficiency for our reserves... 20% of 11,500 is 2300 pilots; 50% increase in efficency of that group during Jul/aug is 1250 pilots.

That's what we bought with the TA, 1250 less pilots via reserve increase. Oh, of course reduced by the nebulous on no-data-to-support bogus claims of vacation, reserve now full, known absences count horse cr*p. I don't believe any of those claims, there has been no data given to support it... NONE of those gains matter in the slightest except for two critical months that drive hiring, Jul/Aug, and if you modify the "offset" claims to the months they actually have an effect, the impact of these offsets is minimal and no where near a full offset. And any pointing to a reserve hiring formula with 60 hours average use is likewise foolish misdirection as the non-factor months Sep thru May drive the average constantly below the hiring trigger--the hiring algorithm is hopelessly skewed to the point of being meaningless. My opinion without supporting data is at least as commanding as all the opposing opinions without supporting data.

And before all the TA cheerleaders channeling Bill Lumberg jump in, please... it's possible for someone to criticize one single aspect of the ta as being less than optimal without you demanding they "show me a better contract" etc... Show a little intellectual integrity and admit that this one area of the TA absolutely suckith, no matter WHAT mitigating other factors you perceive may exist.

+ BBar, +FrmFrtDog, -76drvr, -slowplay. And I'm starting to think Johnso is either running for office or his kid brother has taken over his account lately...

NuGuy

Yup. An "I told you so" isn't worth anything. Only a /doublefacepalm seems appropriate.

Another bite at the apple is right around the corner, and if you think the higher ALV or reserve utilization sucks for staffing, wait until the FT/DT negotiations start.

I really hope some of you have learned an important lesson here.

As far as the HND thing. Back in the early 90s, the government wonks were trying to re-work the Japanese air service treaty. NWA ran FULL page spreads in the Washington Post and other papers DAILY, for months on end, to keep it the way it was.

Flyallnite has it exactly right on NRT. It's really important, and important that everyone understands how it works.

Nu