Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
09-14-2012, 10:00 AM
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09-14-2012, 10:07 AM
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NY7erb are also out via back door
09-14-2012, 10:14 AM
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Hey CAAC, I found an article showing a city in China that was designed to house 1 million, but currently holds 30,000.
Where is everyone? The derelict majesty of Chinese ghost town built to house one million, but with less than 30,000 residents | Mail Online
I'm guessing that the central planners in the government need a place to put all the money from the trade surpluses.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Chinese gov't is trying trying to move people from agricultural areas to areas like the above article refers to.
Where is everyone? The derelict majesty of Chinese ghost town built to house one million, but with less than 30,000 residents | Mail Online
I'm guessing that the central planners in the government need a place to put all the money from the trade surpluses.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Chinese gov't is trying trying to move people from agricultural areas to areas like the above article refers to.
Back to the subject. I don't understand Gloopy's post. There is no context. Even if there is a housing bubble in China, Asia cannot be ignored. If visa restrictions are lifted on the Chinese and they are able to vacation abroad as freely as Americans Delta had better be in a position to accommodate the masses.
FedEx and UPS have realized the importance of Asia and China for a long time. With hubs in Guangzhou and Shenzhen they don't seem to be concerned about a bubble.
09-14-2012, 10:34 AM
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Back to the subject. I don't understand Gloopy's post. There is no context. Even if there is a housing bubble in China, Asia cannot be ignored. If visa restrictions are lifted on the Chinese and they are able to vacation abroad as freely as Americans Delta had better be in a position to accommodate the masses.
FedEx and UPS have realized the importance of Asia and China for a long time. With hubs in Guangzhou and Shenzhen they don't seem to be concerned about a bubble.
I think there is still net growth in Asia for sure, but nowhere remotely near the rose colored hourly A380 service to every fake GDP city they build by government edict. Far more will be pumped into the region than reality will be able to support and that will have to come out and come out hard. One thing to remember about bubbles, particularly the big, bad ones: very few can see through the fog of fake growth to identify a bubble until well after it starts to pop, despite how obvious it was all along after the fact.
09-14-2012, 10:40 AM
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Its way more than a "housing bubble." Its an everything bubble. A Yuan bubble. A debt bubble. An unneeded public works bubble. A national defense (soon to become a money bleeding internatinal offense) bubble. They are sowing the seeds of rampant inflation, which is a particularly insidious tax on the poorer classes and actually supresses mobility into higher classes in the long run. China in particular is in a heap big trouble, and will likely try to hide behind wars to postpone the inevitable collapse of the bubbles they have been creating.
I think there is still net growth in Asia for sure, but nowhere remotely near the rose colored hourly A380 service to every fake GDP city they build by government edict. Far more will be pumped into the region than reality will be able to support and that will have to come out and come out hard. One thing to remember about bubbles, particularly the big, bad ones: very few can see through the fog of fake growth to identify a bubble until well after it starts to pop, despite how obvious it was all along after the fact.
I think there is still net growth in Asia for sure, but nowhere remotely near the rose colored hourly A380 service to every fake GDP city they build by government edict. Far more will be pumped into the region than reality will be able to support and that will have to come out and come out hard. One thing to remember about bubbles, particularly the big, bad ones: very few can see through the fog of fake growth to identify a bubble until well after it starts to pop, despite how obvious it was all along after the fact.
Which is why Emirates, Qatar, and the likes are in big trouble.
09-14-2012, 10:40 AM
The Brown Dot +1
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The thing China has over us is that they own our debt and they continue to buy new debt. If that stops, or they dump our debt, I am not over-exaggerating, the US dollar becomes worthless that day. Many manufacturing techinques and trade secrets have been outsourced to China, the Chevy Volt is a perfect example, aviation manufacturing techniques and machinery are another. China builds the equivalent of the entire US aviation test infrastructure annually...wind tunnels, space chambers, jet engine test cells, arc heaters, etc.
IOW, we have zero power over them and both they and we know it. Their internal currency the renmibi (or RMB or yuan) is maintained at artificially low levels to give them an internal "growth" and full employment edge. This is one of their bubbles because they are losing the cheap manufacturing edge to SE Asia.
China is polluted badly. The air quality in Beijing is 400 percent worse than the standard listed as unhealthy. The life expectancy of a Beijing street cop is 41 years. Much of Chinese produce cannot be exported due to contamination by poisons.
There is a market in China. There are many "new rich". A common strategy of the new rich is to have their children born in either Canada or the US so they can have dual citizenship. The new rich do not entrust their childrens future to China.
09-14-2012, 10:40 AM
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What's really funny is people thinking they are going to "move" hundreds of millions of rice farmers and peny per hour facgtory workers to quarter million dollar appartments by public policy and edict. Its just not possible. As that starts to happen, wages and prices will rise so harshly it will slam the door just as quickly as it opened it. We're already starting to see it in western market factory areas where wages are inflating dramatically to the point where even US and European businesses are starting to divert growth and existing capacity back home because the numbers just don't make sense anymore.
China is "red hot right now" just like Las Vegas and FL real estate was not that long ago here. A massive bubble that few want to see or allow themselves to see.
09-14-2012, 10:47 AM
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Currently their recourse is to contact their reps. If they don't like the answers then they can recall the reps. The reps work directly for the line pilot.
Currently the MEC Chair works directly for the reps; he is their executive officer, meaning he executes the will of the body of the MEC. If he doesn't represent their views, then they can recall him. Going back to paragraph one, if a pilot doesn't think the MEC Chair is doind a good job, his LEC rep is the one accountable for that.
The method you espouse (direct election of the MEC chair) serverely restricts the influence of the LEC rep and strengthens the MEC Chair position. It can also substantially undermine smaller bases, as an MEC Chair elected by a substantial "popular vote" majority doesn't have to answer to representatives with fewer popular vote totals. Our current method requires a senatorial majority (affirmitive) to elect, and roll call can only be used to recall. ATL and DTW together are a roll call majority, but only 6 of 19 votes on the MEC. I can think of several times where "diplomatic" solutions had to be reached (consensus solutions) rather than a power politic solution because of the senatorial check and balance.
btw, it's not that hard for reps to recall the MEC Chair or for pilots to recall their reps. MM was recalled at NWA (2006 I believe) and CG resigned in lieu of recall at Delta in 2001. C44 Captain reps resigned in lieu of recall in 2000 and in 2006.
Currently the MEC Chair works directly for the reps; he is their executive officer, meaning he executes the will of the body of the MEC. If he doesn't represent their views, then they can recall him. Going back to paragraph one, if a pilot doesn't think the MEC Chair is doind a good job, his LEC rep is the one accountable for that.
The method you espouse (direct election of the MEC chair) serverely restricts the influence of the LEC rep and strengthens the MEC Chair position. It can also substantially undermine smaller bases, as an MEC Chair elected by a substantial "popular vote" majority doesn't have to answer to representatives with fewer popular vote totals. Our current method requires a senatorial majority (affirmitive) to elect, and roll call can only be used to recall. ATL and DTW together are a roll call majority, but only 6 of 19 votes on the MEC. I can think of several times where "diplomatic" solutions had to be reached (consensus solutions) rather than a power politic solution because of the senatorial check and balance.
btw, it's not that hard for reps to recall the MEC Chair or for pilots to recall their reps. MM was recalled at NWA (2006 I believe) and CG resigned in lieu of recall at Delta in 2001. C44 Captain reps resigned in lieu of recall in 2000 and in 2006.
Slow, quick question as I am severely limited and time and cannot yet respond in full. But I will.
But you say the ability to recall your LEC Rep is the recourse an individual member has against a hypothetical tyrannical MEC Chairman, right?
Well, what if your LEC Rep is not the problem? And is in the right? What is your recourse then?
Nope.
Your post goes to the root of my question. ACL has "screen cred." FtB was extolled for his excel spreadsheet analysis during the TA. There are several other posters on here that asserted what would and would not happen should we vote in the agreement. The agreement is in force now, and the company is publicly disclosing their business plan we can look back and see who was more correct with the information available at that time.
Your post goes to the root of my question. ACL has "screen cred." FtB was extolled for his excel spreadsheet analysis during the TA. There are several other posters on here that asserted what would and would not happen should we vote in the agreement. The agreement is in force now, and the company is publicly disclosing their business plan we can look back and see who was more correct with the information available at that time.
I think I was pretty clear that we took language out that protected us. The notion that the only scope protection we needed was a low ratio is a fallacy to me and I set out to prove why. I didn’t prognosticate over what the company will do but rather what they could now do that they could not do before.
The spreadsheets also showed a fundamental flaw in the sales pitch that we were increasing our flying from 53% to 64% and that’d equate to more jobs. But that was not what the TA required from the company and thanks to Alfa’s math problem I could show that an increase in share does not have to be an increase in jobs.
09-14-2012, 11:03 AM
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Simply not true. China doesn't recognize dual citizenship.
Speaking of China, wouldn't Honolulu be a great hub to connect two of the fastest growing aviation markets in the world. Asia and South America
? All we need is a Hawaiian refinery, North Dakota crude, and a ton of 330s, and it would be the Dubai of the Pacific.
09-14-2012, 11:14 AM
The Brown Dot +1
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Simply not true. China doesn't recognize dual citizenship.
Speaking of China, wouldn't Honolulu be a great hub to connect two of the fastest growing aviation markets in the world. Asia and South America? All we need is a Hawaiian refinery, North Dakota crude, and a ton of 330s, and it would be the Dubai of the Pacific.
Speaking of China, wouldn't Honolulu be a great hub to connect two of the fastest growing aviation markets in the world. Asia and South America
? All we need is a Hawaiian refinery, North Dakota crude, and a ton of 330s, and it would be the Dubai of the Pacific.They dont have to if the other country does. And yes it is true.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_tourism
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