Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
09-02-2012, 01:09 PM
The Brown Dot +1
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 777B
Posts: 7,775
Scambo, it was a good read. A friend of mine in the oil business thought we were nuts to buy a refinery that was never "profitable". I don't think he or any other oil guy saw why Delta did the deal and SD does a nice job of explaining it to us. It's all about the crack spread (no FTB we don't need pics).
Ya'll know I'm not a cheerleader or koolaid drinker, but IMO, this is a supreme coup. Now that it's pumping gas, I am interested in seeing what its effect on our debt position is going forward as well as it's effect on our profit sharing positions.
09-02-2012, 01:22 PM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
09-02-2012, 02:01 PM
Moderator
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: DAL 330
Posts: 6,945
Clamp,
No. But Sailing does have a very valid point here. If 300 Pilots age 63 and 64 years were to have taken the early out then all Pilots junior to them would see a temporary advance in Seniority. Temporary in the sense that the seniority bump would evaporate over the two years when anyone over age 63 would have hit the mandatory retirement age regardless.
This would yield a temporary bump of 300 for lets say an average of 1.5 years yielding a gross total 450 pilot years of advantage. ** If however 191, but lets just use 200 for even numbers, dudes retire early at an average age of 60 that would yield an average of 200 times 5 years for a gross total of 1000 pilot years.
In the above example 1000 is greater than 450 and I believe that is what Sailing was referring to.
To summarize 300 very old (average 63.5 years old) gives a larger temporary seniority bump but for a much shorter time. 191 old (average 60 years old) gives less of a bump but provides the benefit for a much longer time.
I would like to point out that both of these advantages are just temporary and yield down to a zero benefit in about 5 or so years. The work rules that we gave up are forever, or until "We get em next time!" So while better than nothing, early retirements are like getting that third shot of espresso in your Starbucks - it feels good but does not last!
** These numbers all assume that you are junior to the early outs. Obviously if you yourself are a geezer
and are senior to half of them you would only receive half the benefit.
Scoop
No. But Sailing does have a very valid point here. If 300 Pilots age 63 and 64 years were to have taken the early out then all Pilots junior to them would see a temporary advance in Seniority. Temporary in the sense that the seniority bump would evaporate over the two years when anyone over age 63 would have hit the mandatory retirement age regardless.
This would yield a temporary bump of 300 for lets say an average of 1.5 years yielding a gross total 450 pilot years of advantage. ** If however 191, but lets just use 200 for even numbers, dudes retire early at an average age of 60 that would yield an average of 200 times 5 years for a gross total of 1000 pilot years.
In the above example 1000 is greater than 450 and I believe that is what Sailing was referring to.
To summarize 300 very old (average 63.5 years old) gives a larger temporary seniority bump but for a much shorter time. 191 old (average 60 years old) gives less of a bump but provides the benefit for a much longer time.
I would like to point out that both of these advantages are just temporary and yield down to a zero benefit in about 5 or so years. The work rules that we gave up are forever, or until "We get em next time!" So while better than nothing, early retirements are like getting that third shot of espresso in your Starbucks - it feels good but does not last!
** These numbers all assume that you are junior to the early outs. Obviously if you yourself are a geezer
and are senior to half of them you would only receive half the benefit.Scoop
Last edited by Scoop; 09-02-2012 at 02:11 PM.
09-02-2012, 02:10 PM
Moderator
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: DAL 330
Posts: 6,945
Tex,
You could fill a small book with the mistakes that the DAL management teams have made over the last 20 years, but I don't think this was one of them.
Time will tell, but I personally like this move.
Scoop
09-02-2012, 02:10 PM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
Clamp,
No. But Sailing does have a very valid point here. If 300 Pilots age 63 and 64 years were to have taken the early out then all Pilots junior to them would see a temporary advance in Seniority. Temporary in the sense that the seniority bump would evaporate over the two years when anyone over age 63 would have hit the mandatory retirement age regardless.
This would yield a temporary bump of 300 for lets say an average of 1.5 years yielding a gross total 450 pilot years of advantage. ** If however 191, but lets just use 200 for even numbers, dudes retire early at an average age of 60 that would yield an average of 200 times 5 years for a gross total of 1000 pilot years.
In the above example 1000 is greater than 450 and I believe that is what Sailing was referring to.
To summarize 300 very old (average 63.5 years old) gives a larger temporary seniority bump but for a much shorter time. 191 old (average 60 years old) gives less of a bump but provides the benefit for a much longer time.
I would like to point out that both of these advantages are just temporary and yield down to a zero benefit in about 5 or so years. The work rules that we gave up are forever, or until "We get em next time!" So while better than nothing, early retirements are like getting that third shot of espresso in your Starbucks - it feels good but does not last!
** These numbers all assume that you are junior to the early outs. Obviously if you yourself are a geezer and are senior to half of them you would only receive half the benefit.
Scoop
No. But Sailing does have a very valid point here. If 300 Pilots age 63 and 64 years were to have taken the early out then all Pilots junior to them would see a temporary advance in Seniority. Temporary in the sense that the seniority bump would evaporate over the two years when anyone over age 63 would have hit the mandatory retirement age regardless.
This would yield a temporary bump of 300 for lets say an average of 1.5 years yielding a gross total 450 pilot years of advantage. ** If however 191, but lets just use 200 for even numbers, dudes retire early at an average age of 60 that would yield an average of 200 times 5 years for a gross total of 1000 pilot years.
In the above example 1000 is greater than 450 and I believe that is what Sailing was referring to.
To summarize 300 very old (average 63.5 years old) gives a larger temporary seniority bump but for a much shorter time. 191 old (average 60 years old) gives less of a bump but provides the benefit for a much longer time.
I would like to point out that both of these advantages are just temporary and yield down to a zero benefit in about 5 or so years. The work rules that we gave up are forever, or until "We get em next time!" So while better than nothing, early retirements are like getting that third shot of espresso in your Starbucks - it feels good but does not last!
** These numbers all assume that you are junior to the early outs. Obviously if you yourself are a geezer
and are senior to half of them you would only receive half the benefit.Scoop
My seniority number has gone up, but I'm more junior than I was in 2008.
09-02-2012, 02:11 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,858
Clamp,
No. But Sailing does have a very valid point here. If 300 Pilots age 63 and 64 years were to have taken the early out then all Pilots junior to them would see a temporary advance in Seniority. Temporary in the sense that the seniority bump would evaporate over the two years when anyone over age 63 would have hit the mandatory retirement age regardless.
No. But Sailing does have a very valid point here. If 300 Pilots age 63 and 64 years were to have taken the early out then all Pilots junior to them would see a temporary advance in Seniority. Temporary in the sense that the seniority bump would evaporate over the two years when anyone over age 63 would have hit the mandatory retirement age regardless.
Now, I say the above in jest (well, not really). The way the convoluted rationale that some of the cheerleaders are so desperate to push trips over itself is really kinda funny (well, not really).
As for the oil thing...remember, a LOT of Wall Street only looks at things from one end...their money train. Commodities to them, whether it's gold, home heating oil, cotton or frozen concentrated orange juice, are just entries in a ledger somewhere. Sometimes I wonder if they really understand that some people who "order fuel" actually expect to take delivery of it at some point, because they, um, burn it and stuff.
Nu
Last edited by NuGuy; 09-02-2012 at 02:24 PM.
09-02-2012, 02:16 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: Urban chicken rancher.
Posts: 6,070
But you forgot about the time value of money! That temporary seniority bump pays off right away, and you need to calculate what the lost increase in your pay rate might have provided had those folks really taken the early out.
Now, I say the above in jest (well, not really). The way the convoluded rationale that some of the cheerleaders are so desperate to push trips over itself is really kinda funny (well, not really).
Nu
Now, I say the above in jest (well, not really). The way the convoluded rationale that some of the cheerleaders are so desperate to push trips over itself is really kinda funny (well, not really).
Nu
Carry on.
09-02-2012, 02:20 PM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
09-02-2012, 02:22 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,858
09-02-2012, 03:12 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,414
It still doesn't make his statement not downright stupid. All the early outs have gone to the same age range, so 300 would be better than 191. As per your example, this "bump" will evaporate over 3-5 years... and to top it off, they didn't backfill beyond one layer either.
My seniority number has gone up, but I'm more junior than I was in 2008.
My seniority number has gone up, but I'm more junior than I was in 2008.
Except for one fact. Everyone wants to quote the ALPA number. That number depending on who put it out was 250 to 350. The official communication actually listed 250. They were targeting and expected almost all those retirements to come from pilots 63 to 65. That is what they put out. The reality is that they got 191 pilots however the biggest majority were in the age 59 to 61 bracket. I put that out earlier and it was disputed by some but others posted the exact ages and it backs up what I stated to the letter.
So ALPA was wrong in their forcast. The program actually turned out better then they expected for Delta pilots. The side benefit is all those pilots 63 to 65 who were expected to go but did not will also be leaving soon anyway. I understand that 8 pilots who retire before next June did not even take the program.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
