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Old 08-24-2012, 10:15 AM
  #108471  
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Originally Posted by PinnacleFO
I was thinking out loud the other day which Ive been told not to do in public in uniform but Would I be too far off If looking at the situation, off the street hiring may not begin until 2014?
Reason I say is becuase if Delta wanted to, they could staff I believe 20-25 per month for a full year and a half with flows from xj and cz. The 717s are not coming until summer of 13, the 737-900's are replacing 757's, you guys are getting more utilization of reserves, and your retirements really dont kick in until 2015 hardcore. So even if bodies are needed, they may just use the flows as needed to fill the spots until the real hiring begins.
Sometimes to get form A to B you have to go to C first and with pinnacle about to fall apart, im trying to get to point C
Any Input?

I think it really depends on if the 717's truly are growth aircraft for mainline. If they are, I think we will see hiring begin by spring of next year. Someone mentioned it in an earlier post but I think we can only take about 140/150 Compass pilots a year for a couple of years and thats it. One guys opinion and you know what that's worth...

Denny
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Old 08-24-2012, 10:16 AM
  #108472  
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Originally Posted by PinnacleFO
I was thinking out loud the other day which Ive been told not to do in public in uniform but Would I be too far off If looking at the situation, off the street hiring may not begin until 2014?
Reason I say is becuase if Delta wanted to, they could staff I believe 20-25 per month for a full year and a half with flows from xj and cz. The 717s are not coming until summer of 13, the 737-900's are replacing 757's, you guys are getting more utilization of reserves, and your retirements really dont kick in until 2015 hardcore. So even if bodies are needed, they may just use the flows as needed to fill the spots until the real hiring begins.
Sometimes to get form A to B you have to go to C first and with pinnacle about to fall apart, im trying to get to point C
Any Input?
the 737-900's may replace SOME of the 757s but not all of them, especially in the near term. DAL is still looking to get ahold of TWA 757's as they become available.
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Old 08-24-2012, 10:21 AM
  #108473  
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Originally Posted by PinnacleFO
I was thinking out loud the other day which Ive been told not to do in public in uniform but Would I be too far off If looking at the situation, off the street hiring may not begin until 2014?
Reason I say is becuase if Delta wanted to, they could staff I believe 20-25 per month for a full year and a half with flows from xj and cz. The 717s are not coming until summer of 13, the 737-900's are replacing 757's, you guys are getting more utilization of reserves, and your retirements really dont kick in until 2015 hardcore. So even if bodies are needed, they may just use the flows as needed to fill the spots until the real hiring begins.
Sometimes to get form A to B you have to go to C first and with pinnacle about to fall apart, im trying to get to point C
Any Input?
Don't forget a bunch (300+?) of voluntary furlough and long term Mil LV pilots that will be timing out in the next few years with head of the line over flows as well.

Has anyone seen an actual vs. TA sunshine-up-ur-@ss delivery schedule on the 717? Anyone know where to find one?
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Old 08-24-2012, 10:29 AM
  #108474  
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Originally Posted by PinnacleFO
I was thinking out loud the other day which Ive been told not to do in public in uniform but Would I be too far off If looking at the situation, off the street hiring may not begin until 2014?
Reason I say is becuase if Delta wanted to, they could staff I believe 20-25 per month for a full year and a half with flows from xj and cz. The 717s are not coming until summer of 13, the 737-900's are replacing 757's, you guys are getting more utilization of reserves, and your retirements really dont kick in until 2015 hardcore. So even if bodies are needed, they may just use the flows as needed to fill the spots until the real hiring begins.
Sometimes to get form A to B you have to go to C first and with pinnacle about to fall apart, im trying to get to point C
Any Input?
Make the jump! Get away from Pinnacle, and the variety of flying you'll get at "C" will help immensely for flying at DL when things do open up and get moving.

What you've illustrated is the worst case scenario (add in furlough recalls to that as well) which is certainly possible. The promises of growth and hiring made by mgmt and pinky swore by ALPA aren't exactly panning out with the TA thus far. We'll see if things improve.
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Old 08-24-2012, 10:29 AM
  #108475  
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Originally Posted by georgetg
Qantas originally was due the first 787-8 in July 2009, the first 787-9 in 2011.

Qantas still hods options but cancelled the firm orders. Chances are any pre-delivery payments will be returned to Qantas and the cancellation penalty and the delay penalty wipe each other out.

I have doubt Delta would commit to a jet that has yet to fly in this fiscal environment, but the 787-9 promises to be a much better jet than the 787-8...

Nothing to see here, the 77-300LR is the most likely next order as it has untouchable CASM.
Even better, it hauls more belly cargo than a 747-8 or an A380...

At 350 seats it fits nicely in the "hole" between our 300 and 400 seat jets...


Cheers
George


Is that based on volume or weight?


Tr
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Old 08-24-2012, 10:30 AM
  #108476  
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Originally Posted by TANSTAAFL
Don't forget a bunch (300+?) of voluntary furlough and long term Mil LV pilots that will be timing out in the next few years with head of the line over flows as well.

Has anyone seen an actual vs. TA sunshine-up-ur-@ss delivery schedule on the 717? Anyone know where to find one?

You have the ones DAL released in the press.

That said, with the AD's and Boeing and LUV asking for more time since they don't have the kits, I would not be surprised in the least to see the delivery schedule get delayed and modified a few times.
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Old 08-24-2012, 10:38 AM
  #108477  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
You have the ones DAL released in the press.

That said, with the AD's and Boeing and LUV asking for more time since they don't have the kits, I would not be surprised in the least to see the delivery schedule get delayed and modified a few times.
There was a BizWeek article saying SW was asking for 90 day extensions on the AD. Of course I bet they'll she'd crocodile tears if they have to delay deliveries to Delta. Of course that would delay hiring and upgrades as well. Good thing we can manipulate that time/value/money TA spreadsheet floating around
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Old 08-24-2012, 11:35 AM
  #108478  
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Originally Posted by PinnacleFO
I was thinking out loud the other day which Ive been told not to do in public in uniform but Would I be too far off If looking at the situation, off the street hiring may not begin until 2014?
Reason I say is becuase if Delta wanted to, they could staff I believe 20-25 per month for a full year and a half with flows from xj and cz. The 717s are not coming until summer of 13, the 737-900's are replacing 757's, you guys are getting more utilization of reserves, and your retirements really dont kick in until 2015 hardcore. So even if bodies are needed, they may just use the flows as needed to fill the spots until the real hiring begins.
Sometimes to get form A to B you have to go to C first and with pinnacle about to fall apart, im trying to get to point C
Any Input?
I agree with your assessment. Hard core retirements do not start until 2017. Guys say 2015 because they assume they majority will retire 2 years early. It seems that is not the case. I personally think the flows might not be here until 2015.
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Old 08-24-2012, 11:38 AM
  #108479  
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Originally Posted by hockeypilot44
I agree with your assessment. Hard core retirements do not start until 2017. Guys say 2015 because they assume they majority will retire 2 years early. It seems that is not the case. I personally think the flows might not be here until 2015.
What, no pilot shortage?
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Old 08-24-2012, 11:41 AM
  #108480  
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Originally Posted by Delta1067
What, no pilot shortage?
I think guys need to come to grip with the fact that we are still frozen from age 65. If age 65 did not happen, our massive retirements would just be starting now. We were still about 5 years away from the shortage before age 65 happened. We are about to be unfrozen from age 65, but unfortunately we are still the same 5 years away that we were when 65 happened. Confused yet?
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