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Old 08-06-2012, 08:59 AM
  #106891  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
I wonder though, if you change the required number of reserves by allowing flying to the ALV+15, why would we need a 1:1 replacement on the categories most effected by such a change.
Exactly, I'm thinking this contract added at least another year to our stagnation.
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:01 AM
  #106892  
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Originally Posted by Free Bird
I'd be shocked if Delta hires this year. My guess is new hires in the fall of 2013 or early 2014.

Bottom line is the airline is still shrinking, we are overstaffed and we just voted yes to a contract that requires fewer pilots to staff the airline. Hope I'm wrong and we see new hires this year.
The one thing I noticed is 9 50 seaters left last quarter and 40 more leave in October. There won't be any 717s and therefore any CR9s for another year.

So we can live without those aircraft for a year while having to believe we are in a capacity growth mode.
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:08 AM
  #106893  
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What do you mean they aren't backfilling all RMA's?


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Old 08-06-2012, 09:14 AM
  #106894  
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Originally Posted by Timbo
Last 'early out' count I saw showed about 39 DTW 747 Capts. leaving, and they are only replacing 20 of them....hmmm...oh, and a bunch of DTW A330 A's going too, yet zero replacements there? Yeah, I see the ATL A330's, but still it's downsizing obviously.
They are not back filling all of the RMAs on this AE due to training constraints caused by Sims being moved. Expect more back filling on following AEs.
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:15 AM
  #106895  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
The one thing I noticed is 9 50 seaters left last quarter and 40 more leave in October. There won't be any 717s and therefore any CR9s for another year.
I think the combination of the 717's coming on property along with the retirements kicking in at the end of 2013 will hopefully start the hiring wave. Throw in some bad economic news, pilots staying until 65 and the hiring might not happen until 2014 imo. My guess is we're looking at a solid 1.5 - 2 years of additional stagnation.
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:19 AM
  #106896  
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Originally Posted by Cubdrick
The way I read it was that this upcoming AE is only one of [potentially] several AEs and they are not attempting to replace all RMAs in one swoop due to training issues and early-out withdrawals. (That would be a swift kick to have your award reversed before you even got to training.)

Hopefully the next few AEs prove to be an overall net positive and reverse the trend.
Well when we see the final early out numbers, I suggest everyone make a copy of the list, ie. how many, and from which categories, and hold on to that for a year, so you can compare how many left, to how many are replaced in each A/E.

I thought this A/E was good for 270 days or nearly that? If that is the case, why couldn't they backfill almost all the early outs now, and train and convert when needed, since it's such a long period, it should cover next summer's flying, right?

251 outs, only being replaced by 86 openings? That don't sound right. Just keep a copy of the final early out numbers and we'll see what the next A/E has...but I'm not holding my breath waiting for all 251 (or 225 if 10% pull out) A/E's to replace them all. I would like to see that, but I doubt we will.

There are some 737-900 positions in there, and they aren't coming until next year, right?
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:21 AM
  #106897  
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Originally Posted by Cubdrick
The way I read it was that this upcoming AE is only one of [potentially] several AEs and they are not attempting to replace all RMAs in one swoop due to training issues and early-out withdrawals. (That would be a swift kick to have your award reversed before you even got to training.)

Hopefully the next few AEs prove to be an overall net positive and reverse the trend.

I agree, even though they aren't backfilling all the vacated positions, there are some widebody A seats vacated which results in a chunk of movement.

All upward movement is good.
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:27 AM
  #106898  
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Originally Posted by Free Bird
I'd be shocked if Delta hires this year. My guess is new hires in the fall of 2013 or early 2014.

Bottom line is the airline is still shrinking, we are overstaffed and we just voted yes to a contract that requires fewer pilots to staff the airline. Hope I'm wrong and we see new hires this year.
The one thing I noticed is 9 50 seaters left last quarter and 40 more leave in October. There won't be any 717s and therefore any CR9s for another year.

Unless OH CR2s are being moved?
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:33 AM
  #106899  
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Originally Posted by Timbo
Well when we see the final early out numbers, I suggest everyone make a copy of the list, ie. how many, and from which categories, and hold on to that for a year, so you can compare how many left, to how many are replaced in each A/E.

I thought this A/E was good for 270 days or nearly that? If that is the case, why couldn't they backfill almost all the early outs now, and train and convert when needed, since it's such a long period, it should cover next summer's flying, right?

251 outs, only being replaced by 86 openings? That don't sound right. Just keep a copy of the final early out numbers and we'll see what the next A/E has...but I'm not holding my breath waiting for all 251 (or 225 if 10% pull out) A/E's to replace them all. I would like to see that, but I doubt we will.

There are some 737-900 positions in there, and they aren't coming until next year, right?
I suggest you read the memo associated with AE posted on the Crew Resources and Scheduling page. It will answer a lot of your questions.

This AE is a 210 day conversion window. Also, it's likely we will see at least 1 more AE this year followed by one very early in 2013. Marketing is still solidifying the 2013 block hour plan.
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:37 AM
  #106900  
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Originally Posted by scambo1
I agree, even though they aren't backfilling all the vacated positions, there are some widebody A seats vacated which results in a chunk of movement.

All upward movement is good.
I agree, this AE is very small. However almost all of the openings are in the left seat. Does anyone really think they won't fill the B seats that are vacated as folks move up.

Read the memo on DLNET. We're still waiting for the network guys and the MBAs to decide which way we'll go for next summer before we really start to do anything. I think this bid is positive with 86 more openings than displacements and while I don't want to put too much sunshine on your doom and gloom parade, WB A positions generate the most training events and as folks move up they'll have to replace some of them. The largest category to lose folks to the RMA was the 7ERA and they didn't take the opportunity to further shrink the ATL 767 category.

For all of your ulcers' sakes, lighten up! For the record, I was a no voter.
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