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Old 06-27-2012, 04:00 AM
  #104121  
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The US will halve its reliance on Mideast oil by 2020 and could eliminate it completely by 2035 with increased domestic production and decreased demand...Wow.

Expanded Oil Drilling Helps U.S.Wean Itself From Mideast - WSJ.com

This would be a huge benefit to the US airline industry and particularly Delta, with it's own refinery.
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Old 06-27-2012, 04:28 AM
  #104122  
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Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp
While WN has done well overall, I think they are a horrible idea for a career choice for someone getting hired soon. Unless you want to upgrade in 2030...
What's upgrade at DAL after another merger and then down to fewer than 10K pilots in 2020?
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Old 06-27-2012, 04:46 AM
  #104123  
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Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
With regard to your #3 above, fuel hedging on the part of SWA management had nothing to do with why their debt is low. SWA management did NOT buy an entire commuter airline for over a Billion dollars, only to purposely wreck it later. SWA did not spend many Billions on buying back their own stock, only to see it go to zero in bankruptcy. When you don't waste billions on incredibly stupid "investments", you don't go in to that kind of debt.

With regard to #4 above, SWA's single fleet model is not why they don't believe in outsourcing. Their entire corporate culture is the way Delta's used to be under David Garrett. Mr. Garrett would never in a million years have allowed the Delta brand to be entrusted to anyone other than a Delta employee. Herb Kelleher believed the exact same thing. Gary Kelly is still running SWA that way. These men believe that whatever is gained in cost by outsourcing to bottom feeders, is more than made up by the losses and inefficiencies produced by outsourcing to bottom feeders. It's just a mindset that men like Garrett and Kelly have/had. Our current management team couldn't disagree more. That's why I say that SWA and FDX should be the first choice by our next generation of pilots.

Carl
Have you seen this article from WSJ a couple days ago? It was posted in the cargo section

Also you never answered me where were you furloughed 5 times in 5 years?


FedEx Corp. Chief Executive Fred Smith predicted fundamental changes in the global freight business, with air carriers facing added competition from ships and the industry putting more focus on providing clients with customized, door-to-door delivery options.
The FedEx founder, who pioneered the modern airfreight business and has built the world's largest cargo airline by revenue, cautioned that the traditional airport-to-airport business "is not growing."
"It's very clear that the door-to-door express segment is growing, and the movement of goods on the water is growing," Mr. Smith said Tuesday on a conference call after FedEx reported a 1.4% decline in profit for its fiscal fourth quarter. The company also promised to release details in the fall on a plan to cut costs.
Mr. Smith said FedEx is in a strong position to take advantage of the industry's shifting trends, despite the company's history in the express-air segment, citing FedEx's scale and combined air, ground and freight capabilities. The company also operates a freight-forwarding business, FedEx Trade Networks, which provides logistical services and arranges third-party shipping for customers, including via sea.
Recent industry changes have hurt FedEx as some customers have opted for slower-moving, nonpremium delivery services in the soft global economy. Volume for FedEx's international-priority-airfreight business declined 3% in the company's fourth quarter, which ended May 31, after falling 1% in the fiscal third quarter. U.S. domestic-express volume fell 5% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 4% decline in the third.
The Memphis, Tenn., company plans to disclose a "comprehensive program" in October to cut costs and better align the size of its express air fleet with anticipated market demand, Mr. Smith said.
The company predicted earning $1.45 to $1.60 a share for the current quarter, below the $1.70 forecast by analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.
FedEx predicted earning $6.90 to $7.40 a share for the year, compared with a forecast by analysts of $7.39 a share, although the company stressed that its full-year forecast didn't include the impact of "significant" cost reductions that are under review.
BB&T Capital Markets analyst Kevin Sterling said it has been evident for some time that growth in the traditional air-cargo segment is on the wane, although he said Mr. Smith's comments were significant. "When he speaks…people listen," Mr. Sterling said.
The analyst said he thinks the three biggest integrated, global airfreight shippers—FedEx, United Parcel Service Inc. and Deutsche Post AG unit DHL—stand to benefit from the broad industry changes in the long term because of the companies' scale and flexibility.
But Bill Flynn, chief executive of air-cargo carrier Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc., said the airfreight industry is solid and remains a good business. "The rate of growth may be slowing down, but it is a rate of growth on a much larger absolute base of cargo," Mr. Flynn said in an interview.
He noted that there is little option for perishable and other time-sensitive items to move except by air, particularly as container ships cut fuel costs through "slow steaming."
"What we have not seen is a fundamental shift from air back to sea," Mr. Flynn said. "I just think it is going to be harder to take high-value, time-sensitive commodities off of an air carrier and onto a ship."
He agreed with Mr. Smith that there is an increasing opportunity for airfreight carriers to offer value-added services to customers, such as tracking capabilities.
FedEx said fourth-quarter earnings were hurt by volume declines in its express-shipping business and by a $134 million charge to retire aircraft because of sluggish domestic demand.
FedEx reported profit of $550 million, or $1.73 a share, down from $558 million, or $1.75 a share, a year earlier. Excluding the charge, earnings rose to $1.99 a share.
Revenue rose 3.8% to $11 billion.
Revenue for express shipping, by far the company's largest top-line contributor, rose 2.6% to $6.8 billion. The segment's operating profit declined 35%.
FedEx's ground-shipping segment posted a 9.7% increase in revenue to $2.48 billion. The segment's operating profit rose 18% as average daily volume increased 3%.
FedEx shares were up 3.2% in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
*
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Old 06-27-2012, 05:09 AM
  #104124  
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Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
With regard to your #3 above, fuel hedging on the part of SWA management had nothing to do with why their debt is low. SWA management did NOT buy an entire commuter airline for over a Billion dollars, only to purposely wreck it later. SWA did not spend many Billions on buying back their own stock, only to see it go to zero in bankruptcy. When you don't waste billions on incredibly stupid "investments", you don't go in to that kind of debt.

With regard to #4 above, SWA's single fleet model is not why they don't believe in outsourcing. Their entire corporate culture is the way Delta's used to be under David Garrett. Mr. Garrett would never in a million years have allowed the Delta brand to be entrusted to anyone other than a Delta employee. Herb Kelleher believed the exact same thing. Gary Kelly is still running SWA that way. These men believe that whatever is gained in cost by outsourcing to bottom feeders, is more than made up by the losses and inefficiencies produced by outsourcing to bottom feeders. It's just a mindset that men like Garrett and Kelly have/had. Our current management team couldn't disagree more. That's why I say that SWA and FDX should be the first choice by our next generation of pilots.

Carl
3. While I agree that our management made many expensive blunders, most experts have said that during the really bad times and high fuel prices, the only reason SWA made money is because of their fuel hedges. This allowed them to remain debt free when everyone else was hemorrhaging.
4. While all that is probably true, it still does not negate the fact that it remains a very simple and easy strategy to cling to when one’s business model supports it and is conducive to it.
5. If you were a junior DAL 737-800 Captain instead of a DAL 744 Captain with plenty of time remaining to reach number on the list (assuming you aren’t already number one), your recommendation for new hires to go to SWA’s might have a little more credibility. I know you mean well though.
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Old 06-27-2012, 05:22 AM
  #104125  
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Originally Posted by APCLurker
And to me, the other part of the problem is we keep agreeing with that philosophy by giving them the original, not to mention more and/or larger rj's over the years. That is something we do have control over. Our votes on these TA's.



I'm not so sure about that one. The "mentality" or thought process or whatever you want to call it that resulted in those original rj's being given away seems to be alive and well still at times.



Definitely disagree here. Somewhere along the way, pilot's and alpa opened that 50 seat rj genie-in-the-bottle by voting yes. Not blaming you Waves, but we most certainly are to blame along the way for this. Smaller turbo-props should have been the end of the line for regionals. I again ask those 50 seat rj "yes voters:" what was the excuse?




The former furloughed pilots weren't the ones that opened the bottle. I would have been fine with a 50 seat rj at mainline before the furlough. Again Waves, not specifically talking to/accusing you but at least Carl has the cajones to admit that wrong-doing.

Some want to fix it, but imho, this TA does not do it. It furthers the problem, the philosophy you mentioned, by making the outsourcing more profitable with more large rj's. And no, it is not my only issue with the ta lest I be labled a "single issue voter."
You are absolutely correct that we keep moving the “RJ aircraft seat count” line in the sand. 50 then 70, then 76. What’s next one should wonder. I hate that too, but I’m a realist and understand the changing market, the 50 seat cost dilemma, and the sacrifices our group always makes to remain profitable. Even though the over buy of 50 seat RJ issue is the fault of former Management, we as a limited controlling agent, yet stake holders in the game, must make a decision as to not only our future compensation, but as to the health of the company as well. This is a tug-of-war issue which has extreme beliefs and consequences in both directions. As a line pilot, of course I want us to get the best of everything. I would love nothing better than a large WB order, a complete annihilation of ALL DCI affiliates, and a huge pay raise. We can certainly fight for all of these things, but at some point we must recognize our limits. Clint Eastwood: “A man has to know his limitations.” I think many on here do not want to recognize our limitations.
Perhaps you are correct that many senior bubba’s don’t give a rat’s arse about the RJ issue. Perhaps many feel it is really not their fight. Although I am not a senior 744 Captain fighting in the trenches, I am not a “ladder pulling” I’ve got mine kind of guy either. First of all, I don’t have mine. Secondly, even if I did, I wouldn’t abandon my brethren. I just don’t agree with the current line of attack.
BTW: Thankfully you can’t blame me for the 50 seater issue because I voted NO for everything.
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Old 06-27-2012, 05:57 AM
  #104126  
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Originally Posted by Waves
You are absolutely correct that we keep moving the “RJ aircraft seat count” line in the sand. 50 then 70, then 76. What’s next one should wonder. I hate that too, but I’m a realist and understand the changing market, the 50 seat cost dilemma, and the sacrifices our group always makes to remain profitable. Even though the over buy of 50 seat RJ issue is the fault of former Management, we as a limited controlling agent, yet stake holders in the game, must make a decision as to not only our future compensation, but as to the health of the company as well. This is a tug-of-war issue which has extreme beliefs and consequences in both directions. As a line pilot, of course I want us to get the best of everything. I would love nothing better than a large WB order, a complete annihilation of ALL DCI affiliates, and a huge pay raise. We can certainly fight for all of these things, but at some point we must recognize our limits. Clint Eastwood: “A man has to know his limitations.” I think many on here do not want to recognize our limitations.
Perhaps you are correct that many senior bubba’s don’t give a rat’s arse about the RJ issue. Perhaps many feel it is really not their fight. Although I am not a senior 744 Captain fighting in the trenches, I am not a “ladder pulling” I’ve got mine kind of guy either. First of all, I don’t have mine. Secondly, even if I did, I wouldn’t abandon my brethren. I just don’t agree with the current line of attack.
BTW: Thankfully you can’t blame me for the 50 seater issue because I voted NO for everything.
Supposedly the company tried to get to 82 seat RJs on this TA, so we can say at least we held the line at 76 seats. Of course I'm sure someone here will say that this is more DALPA disinformation.
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Old 06-27-2012, 06:11 AM
  #104127  
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Originally Posted by RetiredFTS
This question is a little off topic but related to the advertised growth connected to this TA, which base(s) will be impacted by the 737- 900 replacing 75s and 76s?
I'd also like to know what bases will be impacted by the other half of the 737-900's replacing the oldest 319-320's...
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Old 06-27-2012, 06:12 AM
  #104128  
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Originally Posted by nwaf16dude
Supposedly the company tried to get to 82 seat RJs on this TA, so we can say at least we held the line at 76 seats. Of course I'm sure someone here will say that this is more DALPA disinformation.
I was told this from a management pilot, so doubtful it is DALPA disinformation. Said DCI would get E190s but clearly the line was held at 76. It was there at one point.
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Old 06-27-2012, 06:34 AM
  #104129  
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Originally Posted by nwaf16dude
Supposedly the company tried to get to 82 seat RJs on this TA, so we can say at least we held the line at 76 seats. Of course I'm sure someone here will say that this is more DALPA disinformation.
I don't doubt that one bit. I bet the MEC told management that no matter what the consequences and trade offs were, an 82 seat aircraft would never be accepted. Even I would have voted no on that one.
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Old 06-27-2012, 06:47 AM
  #104130  
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Originally Posted by Waves
I don't doubt that one bit. I bet the MEC told management that no matter what the consequences and trade offs were, an 82 seat aircraft would never be accepted. Even I would have voted no on that one.
Waves, 82 seats is only 6 seats more? What's the big deal?

It would make the company more profitable.
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