Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
06-24-2012, 07:25 PM
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This calls for...
So I had to look V16 up on a map, hoping this dude was following a 221 course. It took me a while but once I finally figured out how to read the LIFR chart I saw 221 was right. But you can fly 221 on your perfect compass, have 221 dialed on the VOR and your GPS showing you on 221, and be in LAX. Who knows, she wins I'm sure, but I was kind of hoping for a gotchya moment.
So I had to look V16 up on a map, hoping this dude was following a 221 course. It took me a while but once I finally figured out how to read the LIFR chart I saw 221 was right. But you can fly 221 on your perfect compass, have 221 dialed on the VOR and your GPS showing you on 221, and be in LAX. Who knows, she wins I'm sure, but I was kind of hoping for a gotchya moment.
06-24-2012, 07:42 PM
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Johnny Ringo: My fight's not with you, Holliday.
Doc Holliday: I beg to differ, sir. We started a game we never got to finish. "Play for Blood," remember?
Johnny Ringo: Oh that. I was just foolin' about.
Doc Holliday: I wasn't.
Not too many characters better than Doc Holliday.....
Doc Holliday: I beg to differ, sir. We started a game we never got to finish. "Play for Blood," remember?
Johnny Ringo: Oh that. I was just foolin' about.
Doc Holliday: I wasn't.
Not too many characters better than Doc Holliday.....
06-24-2012, 08:14 PM
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I'm completely with you that the ratio could be a little tighter. You have to get a ratio provision first. This happens now, we tighten it in 2.75 years on our next opener (or sooner if any "other" things happen before then).
I would absolutely LOVE to see sun-setting on all DCI.
I would absolutely LOVE to see sun-setting on all DCI.
Parking new aircraft will be too expensive for the beancounters, just like parking the 50s are today.
06-24-2012, 08:19 PM
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Emirates announces blockbuster 777 order at Dubai | ATWOnline
06-24-2012, 09:22 PM
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George, this is taken from the TA Agreement Summary: “Today, Delta mainline flies 54% of domestic block hours while DCI flies the remaining 46%. With this TA, the share will shift to a minimum of 61% mainline to a DCI share of 39%.” Secondly, adding 88 717’s requires another 1,100 pilots to fly them. No airline on the planet can make guarantees as to how many aircraft and pilots it will need in the distant future. To expect them to do so is unrealistic. Having a two year no furlough clause is about as good as it gets. And yes, 777’s would have probably cinched the deal for many doubters.
Currently we fly 3.6M consolidated block hours and we have a 54% share of it or 1.94M MBH. If we could jump from 54% to 61%, we'd have 2.20M MBH, a win worth about 75ish airplanes or what you get when you add 88 B717s and park 17 DC9s.
Great!
However, there is no requirement to maintain a certain number of block hours like 3.6M. Just a requirement that at a given point (DCI 450/325) we get 61% of whatever flying there is to be had per the 1.56 ratio.
So the problem is that DCI 600 going to DCI 450 would result in a drop from nearly 1.7M DBH to 1.245M DBH.
All that has to be met is that MBH >= 1.56 x 1.245M DBH, or MBH >= 1.94M MBH. Which is where we are today.
So the language makes it possible to shrink DCI without transferring any of the block hours to us and they meet the ratio requirement and ASMs get to keep their current trajectory and drop about 1% YOY.
All that has to be met is that MBH >= 1.56 x 1.245M DBH, or MBH >= 1.94M MBH. Which is where we are today.
Last edited by forgot to bid; 06-24-2012 at 10:03 PM.
06-24-2012, 10:03 PM
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Now Waves, to be fair.
What the ratio does do is say if we grow after we hit 1.56, then DCI can only grow their MBH as much as 450 jets would allow and in keeping with the 1.56 ratio. If we grow enough then we rise off the 61% floor and go higher.
The roadshow promotes the business plan that has growth and a resulting 64% share. That's great, a win for us. But two problems, first we don't hit the 1.56 ratio before TA 2015, where tweaking of the ratios and caps could easily commence since scope is negotiable. Second, growth is not required per the TA. We can all hope the business plan in the roadshow happens, but it doesn't have to.
As to 777s, until we see more than 16 ordered, all I see is a 744 replacement and a gnashing of teeth in the marketing department. Our literal poster child would be gone. But seriously, if they offered 16 773s for 100 CR9s, the end result will be no additional hiring except at DCI. Pull that in TA 2015 and it's TA 2012 all over again.
What the ratio does do is say if we grow after we hit 1.56, then DCI can only grow their MBH as much as 450 jets would allow and in keeping with the 1.56 ratio. If we grow enough then we rise off the 61% floor and go higher.
The roadshow promotes the business plan that has growth and a resulting 64% share. That's great, a win for us. But two problems, first we don't hit the 1.56 ratio before TA 2015, where tweaking of the ratios and caps could easily commence since scope is negotiable. Second, growth is not required per the TA. We can all hope the business plan in the roadshow happens, but it doesn't have to.
As to 777s, until we see more than 16 ordered, all I see is a 744 replacement and a gnashing of teeth in the marketing department. Our literal poster child would be gone. But seriously, if they offered 16 773s for 100 CR9s, the end result will be no additional hiring except at DCI. Pull that in TA 2015 and it's TA 2012 all over again.
06-25-2012, 03:29 AM
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Agreed.
A No result will find out sooner. A Yes vote to the TA will take years to determine if it was right or wrong. Either way, it will be water over the dam.
06-25-2012, 03:32 AM
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But 61% of $10 is $6.10. 61% of $100M is $61M. So it's only a % of the consolidated block hour pie.
Currently we fly 3.6M consolidated block hours and we have a 54% share of it or 1.94M MBH. If we could jump from 54% to 61%, we'd have 2.20M MBH, a win worth about 75ish airplanes or what you get when you add 88 B717s and park 17 DC9s.
Great!
However, there is no requirement to maintain a certain number of block hours like 3.6M. Just a requirement that at a given point (DCI 450/325) we get 61% of whatever flying there is to be had per the 1.56 ratio.
Currently we fly 3.6M consolidated block hours and we have a 54% share of it or 1.94M MBH. If we could jump from 54% to 61%, we'd have 2.20M MBH, a win worth about 75ish airplanes or what you get when you add 88 B717s and park 17 DC9s.
Great!
However, there is no requirement to maintain a certain number of block hours like 3.6M. Just a requirement that at a given point (DCI 450/325) we get 61% of whatever flying there is to be had per the 1.56 ratio.
So the problem is that DCI 600 going to DCI 450 would result in a drop from nearly 1.7M DBH to 1.245M DBH.
All that has to be met is that MBH >= 1.56 x 1.245M DBH, or MBH >= 1.94M MBH. Which is where we are today.
So the language makes it possible to shrink DCI without transferring any of the block hours to us and they meet the ratio requirement and ASMs get to keep their current trajectory and drop about 1% YOY.All that has to be met is that MBH >= 1.56 x 1.245M DBH, or MBH >= 1.94M MBH. Which is where we are today.
????????? Really, you need to ask ALPA people some questions or read the NN's. You are making this way too hard on yourself.
06-25-2012, 03:38 AM
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06-25-2012, 04:04 AM
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