Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
05-24-2012, 12:28 PM
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Math Problem for the Day (I hope newk has recovered from his analysis of the staffing formula)
Delta currently flies about 3,600,000 domestic block hours per year (combined mainline + DCI).
Mr. JungleBus claims that they can buy the 76 seaters and then dump mainline aircraft. How can they do that and still increase the mainline share of block hours? That is why there is the ratio built in, and it is a very powerful ratio that you will never see again under a new negotiation. Management felt like we took their children when this was negotiated. Block hours are the core of pilot jobs, the number of aircraft required to create those block hours are basically fixed by the average daily ute rate of aircraft.
Bonus question: Under Delta's business plan our share of block hours will rise to 64% (remember DCI fleet is capped). Redo the above calculations and tell me how many jobs that creates at mainline.
Delta currently flies about 3,600,000 domestic block hours per year (combined mainline + DCI).
- Our current share of those block hours is 53.9%
- Under the TA, if Delta purchases the extra 70 76 seat jets the minimum share of our block hours rises to 60.9%. Calculate the difference between our current share and our minimum new share.
- Divide that difference by 12 to get the monthly block hours.
- Multiply that number by 2 because we have two pilots per domestic cockpit.
- Divide by 60 whcih is what our block hours per pilot will be in the future.
- Tell me how many additional pilot jobs at mainline that this creates
- Now contemplate that with a hard cap on DCI fleet, where does all additonal system capacity growth have to go after that.
Mr. JungleBus claims that they can buy the 76 seaters and then dump mainline aircraft. How can they do that and still increase the mainline share of block hours? That is why there is the ratio built in, and it is a very powerful ratio that you will never see again under a new negotiation. Management felt like we took their children when this was negotiated. Block hours are the core of pilot jobs, the number of aircraft required to create those block hours are basically fixed by the average daily ute rate of aircraft.
Bonus question: Under Delta's business plan our share of block hours will rise to 64% (remember DCI fleet is capped). Redo the above calculations and tell me how many jobs that creates at mainline.
Now, I've got other things to do but one nagging thing that comes up as I dissect the fun numbers. Why did we allow all domestic NB aircraft from the DC9 to 763 count in this TA towards the mainline block hours? Why not just use small NB?
I know we have some long legs on the RJs but 85% have to be under 900sm. So for the most part they're nowhere near as long as our 763s, 738s, 737s.
Even with the ratio, you can get to the point that we're flying 1.9 million block hours and they're down around 1.2 million. rounding here. Divide that out by an average flight segments. If we fly 2.5 hours/segment on average and they do 1.2 average, they get to do 35% more segments then we do.
And I have a sneaking suspicion it might be more than 2.5 ABH for us but whatever it is I bet we average more hours per segment than an RJ.
Honest question, why wasn't flight segments the measuring stick instead of block hours? because surely the long range NBs do not help.
On the short to medium range flights it seems flight segments is a better measuring stick.
Also by the math, seems we do a lot more hours per plane than they do. Is that because they do more short segments?
05-24-2012, 12:28 PM
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ALPA site still chewing on log on info. I assume it is because of the TA.
05-24-2012, 12:31 PM
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Another good comment from the DALPA forums.
It was the only way management was going to get more scope erosion accomplished. Have the pilots trade 50 seaters that management no longer wants in such larger numbers for more viable aircraft, 70 of the 76 seaters to be exact. Give ratios that management was not concerned about and carrot with a purchase order.
When the line keeps moving toward getting more of our biggest RJs, it is scope erosion even if it requires a reduction of smaller aircraft and ratios to ensure lower levels of DCI. Delta only has 16 turboprops left in DCI, remember when they had hundreds? What if years ago we made a deal to reduce the amount turboprops in a trade for moving the line even closer toward more of larger mainline like equipment? How would we then rate our success now with such a deal?
This deal is a scope concession and part of an ongoing trend of further scope erosion pure and simple. It is just being masked as something different to make more palatable.
No Thanks,
No ask yourself why we are even having discussions of giving up 70 more of our largest branded outsourced aircraft in a non-concessionary TA?
When the line keeps moving toward getting more of our biggest RJs, it is scope erosion even if it requires a reduction of smaller aircraft and ratios to ensure lower levels of DCI. Delta only has 16 turboprops left in DCI, remember when they had hundreds? What if years ago we made a deal to reduce the amount turboprops in a trade for moving the line even closer toward more of larger mainline like equipment? How would we then rate our success now with such a deal?
This deal is a scope concession and part of an ongoing trend of further scope erosion pure and simple. It is just being masked as something different to make more palatable.
No Thanks,
No ask yourself why we are even having discussions of giving up 70 more of our largest branded outsourced aircraft in a non-concessionary TA?
05-24-2012, 12:33 PM
Line Holder
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Position: DAL 7ER FO
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I'm sure we'd all love to fix our section 1 problems without giving up another 76 seater but that requires both sides to agree on it and anyone with the slightest bit of common sense knows that isn't going to happen here in the real world.
05-24-2012, 12:37 PM
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Right now we have almost zero leaving this year and only 80 or 90 next year. Even 2014 I think is only around 150 or so. Very manageable. Its better and cheaper from the company standpoint to try and get some from years beyond that (where the numbers rapidly rise to >300/year all the way to >800/year) to leave in the next 2-3 years. That way they are gone and the big years down the road are flattened out a bit, thus resulting in a smaller training bubble down the road.
05-24-2012, 12:42 PM
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: DAL 7ER FO
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Perhaps because the airline is staffed based on block hours, not segments? If we're looking to increase the number of mainline jobs, it would seem to be in our best interest to increase mainline block hours as much as we can.
05-24-2012, 12:53 PM
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I can see the block hour thing with a static fleet and network. I'm thinking that is changing though as was released to the press. Answer is that we don't know for sure.
05-24-2012, 12:57 PM
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It improves it, but doesn't completely fix it. The 4:30 average daily credit does apply, so you could have a low time two-day where you are getting 9 and the capt is getting 10:30. Better than before, but still not equal. I got that explanation from my rep, who is very quick to answer questions via email.
05-24-2012, 12:58 PM
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Anyone know why Jet Blue was parked at "A" today in ATL? Charter?
05-24-2012, 01:04 PM
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we'd still have the rah exemption and the Alaska codeshare to deal with.
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