FangsF15

Good discussion. I would certainly concede it depends on your perspective. If your metric is fastest to WB A, then early 2014 hires will probably have it slightly better.

But if your metric is not WB A, then early 2021 hires have it better, IMO. They effectively skipped being junior pretty much ever, touched middle third in only 3 years, are able to hold NB Captain anywhere (or be top 20-25% NB B or almost any WB B) and will be able to hold a line for the rest of their long Captain career. Many have argued that the difference between the front and back end of the “middle third” is almost meaningless. That’s tough to argue against.

FWIW, while we can’t predict the next 7 years, IF we retire about 500 a year and hire around 1000/year, we would be at almost 21000, and the early 2021 hires would be ~37% at a decade. The retirements are now locked in, it’s a question of the hiring. Also, the company has a net growth on their WB order book, and has publicly stated they plan to focus on the build out the international network as they have basically completed the domestic network rebuild. No telling how crazy WB growth could be in 7 years. Fingers crossed.

Regardless of all that, we are talking about shades of a very light grey. We are debating whether it’s better to hit a home run by 10 feet or 20 feet. It really doesn’t matter, as they both jog the bases.

I would also add that I think those in these groups need to be mindful (and I think the vast majority are) of how crazy good they have it, and that there are a lot of senior pilots who had a much rougher ride. Also, most senior pilots are happy for junior despite what some of the loudest and most acerbic might lead you to believe. Just know how to read the room, and thank senior for what they endured.

FITH

True statement. That’s a good reminder for those of us who won the date of birth/date of employment lottery.

myrkridia

Great points and you're right; all of this is academic. During my free trial with Widget Seniority I remember seeing a line graph with pilot seniority progression over time super imposed over each other. The fact the only neat lines that continuously go down are the ones that are projected vs historical is an argument that 2021 hires had the best timing since their luck is already etched in our timeline rather than a projection.
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bohicagain

I'm a early 14 hire and I'm around 1000 numbers from Junior WB. Currently 5700's seniority.

Based on widget seniority in Nov 2026 I'll be around 4200 and able to hold the plug on a WB in NYC.

So you may be right at the 12 year mark I'll be able to hold WB. If I'm lucky I'll be able to fly WB for 21+ years.

marcal

Thats a lot of circadian disruption.

myrkridia

Not if you're sitting reserve!

Gunfighter

Shhhh.....

Whoopsmybad

That’s assuming you will be on reserve as a super junior WBA. Later on sure…..

CrazyEight

Cliff note: Enjoy today. Every generation has and will continue to pay dues. 2014, 2021 are no different. I try to be grateful of the good times, respectful of those who endured bad times and not so naive or arrogant to think it wont happen to me again.

History shows one country brought the world to chaos for six years. Now its half the planet and half the world's population openly challenging the West- these pieces are not willfully going back into their boxes. $34T in debt, $3T in annual deficits, $1.6T in annual debt service, a tapped out consumer, bankrupt social security system, $76k median savings for boomers, extreme polarity in politics, loss of national identity and a mass introduction of unskilled labor... I could go on but what is the point after $1.6T.

PilotJ3

The AE, it’s out…