fishforfun

Their rise to WB Capt will be impressive.

myrkridia

I mean yea nobody can contest the timing of a 2021 hire if the metric is the first 5 years on property. But over the course of a 30 year career those 18 months will be nothing more than an anecdote about what could have been much worse.

Planetrain

What’s the latest Wall-to-fall crystal ball look like for post-merger WBA?

Gone Flying

it depends on which point in their career you are looking at.

The first 2014 hires are almost in the top 1/3 of the list just over 10 years in. While it is possible for the same to happen for 2021 hires, we would need an overall seniority list of 22,000 by 2032 for that to happen.

the first 2014 hires will be 3,400 15 years in, 1,300 20 years in and will be area codes 22 years in.

the first 2021 hires will be 5,800 after 15 years, 4,300 after 20, and take 29-30 years to reach area codes.

im not saying 2021 hires have it bad, not even remotely. However I respectfully contend 2014 hires will have the best overall career progression, and should definitely have a faster timeline to the top pay rate.

tennisguru

I think this is a big factor right now. With GS/SS going out heavily in a lot of categories, it's not too hard for a senior FO to make big bucks without working terribly hard if you know how to work the system. Upgrading right now might net a bigger W-2 at the end of the year by a little bit but probably for a lot more days worked. Plus the senior FO is guaranteed every key day off in the year that they want. I would agree that if green slips dry up that will drive upgrade more senior for a while. The question is what would cause staffing to improve so much that GS become rare? I don't see the company intentionally hiring up to that point, so the only thing that would cause it would be a major slowdown in the economy or another black swan. The recession that was supposed to happen over a year ago still hasn't materialized, so it seems like we've got a few years until the next "normal" recession comes around.

GogglesPisano

I'm predicting a Fall 24 AE. November to be exact. And I'm predicting I'll be part of it. (beer emoji)

Meme In Command

I don't think that's true. As an FO I worked a GS every single month and had a decent amount of time off. I also could never get a min credit line even at 45ish % in seat. Now as a super junior line holder captain I can for the first time ever get lines under 70 hrs and WS Gucci trips to make up the rest, make slightly more money than I did as an FO but I work way less. To be fair my upgrade timing basically doubled my hourly rate so I'm living in "every trip tastes like a Greenslip" heaven.

m3113n1a1

I think we found a new "flex" to root for!!

172skychicken

It's already been said, but the 2014 hires should smoke anyone currently on the list in time to WBA aside from the few NWA NINJAs that are left. But 2021 probably has the record to 66%, at least in the modern era.

m3113n1a1

Yeah.. I'm an early 2017 hire and thinking 17-18 years from DOH to WB-A if all keeps on trucking like it is. 2014 hires will be like 11-12ish years to WB-A most likely.