Originally Posted by PilotBases

I'm thinking we see a more normal 1000 hired/500 retire cycle, so growth of 500/year. Not as crazy as the two years hiring 2000+. A 2021 hire will have a vastly different seniority path than a 2025 one.

Originally Posted by Gooner

Fantastic break down and you are spot on that the correct way to look at upgrade is percentage. For prospective hires this post should be exactly how you look at progression. The other part is base and fleet break down, certain bases and fleets trend very differently. But those seem to be in flux with a new generation of pilots finding where they want to go.

I also liked how you broke out the experience of seniority for different eras of hires, fangs. For better or worse pilots hired today will have a different experience than those hired over the last two years, but will actually probably track to be simply “normal.” But there are always going to be mitigating circumstances, look what happened to pilots hired from 98-08, crazy things. But who had Boeing imploding itself on the 737, who had airbuses delayed 6plus months for engines, that now need to be taken off wing again in under 5 years. The 220 has tripped so many times already and is limping. That’s just airplane stuff, without delving into the other section of the news, luckily stepping on the age 67 rake seems to have been avoided.

I tend to agree that as long as wide body delivery is held mostly on schedule and NEOs don’t experience significant delays seniority progression should maintain for at least two years. Not sure how that will affect upgrade times but the percentage to hold upgrade I think in the mean time moves more senior for about a year due to the 4000 new hires over the last 36 months feeling comfortable to move to the next seat will create a slight shift in bidding, the 7ER pilots being the wild card in all of the movement.

Originally Posted by FangsF15

Wholeheartedly agree. The time it takes for a NH to climb to a certain percentage will be dramatically longer than those higher in 2021.

Originally Posted by PilotJ3

The best timing was 2014NH
Then 2015-mid2017
Then anymore hired between 2021-mid 2022
Late 2023 + will take much longer, even though they think the upgrade might be close, I can bet the hopes will start going away in a year or so as upgrades and progression is more “normal”.

In velvet they said they are not planing to stop hiring, about 1,000 a yr for the foreseeable future. Delta nailed it with the Airbus vs Boeing orders. It wouldn’t surprise me if they active the 75 A321Neo options.

Originally Posted by PilotJ3

The best timing was 2014NH
Then 2015-mid2017
Then anymore hired between 2021-mid 2022
Late 2023 + will take much longer, even though they think the upgrade might be close, I can bet the hopes will start going away in a year or so as upgrades and progression is more “normal”.

In velvet they said they are not planing to stop hiring, about 1,000 a yr for the foreseeable future. Delta nailed it with the Airbus vs Boeing orders. It wouldn’t surprise me if they active the 75 A321Neo options.

Originally Posted by Viper25

Where do late 2017 to early 2020 hires fall in your rankings?

Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo

Agree. Good analysis Fangs. It seems you have a passion for this and the junior folks are all the better for your diligence.

To the bolded part about 7ER folks. Yeah, it's an interesting demographic for sure. Pretty senior still on the "A" side, with some longevity left. As the eventual wind down of the 767s starts to happen, it will be very interesting to see how they move about. Will they slide over to the -400? Or will they chuck a rock and move over to the big bus's? That demographic will make it interesting for many that's for sure. I think we can all agree that 78's at DAL are probably not going to happen. I know many of the very senior A's and they 1) like the international 2) don't see them moving to the NB side just to stay on the one Boeing we have there (73 - I left off the 75 becasue most of the senior A's bid the international stuff and avoid the domestic side if at all possible) and 3) Are Boeing guys/gals almost to the core.

Originally Posted by Viper25

Where do late 2017 to early 2020 hires fall in your rankings?

Originally Posted by PilotJ3

The best timing was 2014NH
Then 2015-mid2017
Then anymore hired between 2021-mid 2022
Late 2023 + will take much longer, even though they think the upgrade might be close, I can bet the hopes will start going away in a year or so as upgrades and progression is more “normal”.

In velvet they said they are not planing to stop hiring, about 1,000 a yr for the foreseeable future. Delta nailed it with the Airbus vs Boeing orders. It wouldn’t surprise me if they active the 75 A321Neo options.

Originally Posted by FangsF15

I respectfully submit the 2021 hires had the best timing ever, and will never be beaten.
- The most senior 2021 hire is not even 3 years on property and is 68% in the company. In addition, there are currently over 1000 Post-Covid hires who have upgraded to Captain.
- The most senior 2014 hires with the same time on property in 2017 were 77.5% at the same point. Further, there were only 43 Captains with 2014 or 2015 DOH at the time.
- Both will see similar 1000ish/year hiring for their respective years 4-6, but the 2021 hire will (likely) continue to see progression beyond year 6, where the 2014 hire saw hiring stop in 2020 for 18ish months.