gloopy

I mostly agree with this. There will likely be the occasional/outlier AE where someone dips (well?) below that. Maybe even more than one, especially since we're having so many. But just because one very junior pilot holds A on one AE doesn't mean the entire company "can hold it" nor does it mean that's the marker threshold for it to be held going forward.

As always, BWYWWWYB.

And maybe don't make career long decisions on where to go based on a short lived statistical outlier.

FangsF15

We have had 11 monthly AE now, and the most consistent trend of all has been NB captain being awarded at 86 or 87%. Every single time.

Over time, that trend may shift slightly more senior, but at least in the medium term, there is no reason to expect that is going to change, even with “normalized“ hiring.

m3113n1a1

Agreed. When we were having random huge AEs I think it actually drove things a bit more junior because there was SO much movement at one time all over the place. But now with consistent monthly smaller AEs, I think the chances of something going "artificially" junior are a bit less...but not impossible!

gloopy

Much in the same way that we were briefly the "new hires get A350" airline for a while...until we weren't...this too will likely revert back to "normal" seniority levels but will very possibly maintain the occasional statistical outlier here or there. That will cause every future new hire to be told that "upgrade is XX months at DL" and the entire airline below the most junior number forever saying "I can hold it" when only one of them could and the opportunity has passed.

I'm not predicting that upgrades will surge back into the decades plus levels again. I'm just not sure if they will stay at the current almost entitled mid to upper 80% levels forever.

KSCessnaDriver

For sure, it's just going to take longer than a year to get to 87% now, with the number of people hired in the last 18 months, coupled with how much hiring is back to normal.

m3113n1a1

4.5 years to get to 87% if hired today assuming the list stays at 17,500 pilots.

FangsF15

Except NB A in the mid-80's percent IS normal, at least for the last decade. I would absolutely agree that "time to hold" is a terrible method of describing plug NB A. Along with several others, I have long argued that % is the only consistent/reliable descriptor, and has held relatively stable over the last decade (excluding Covid craziness) in the mid-80's%. I would take issue with your assertion that plug NB A is "much the same" as "new hires get the A350" though. IMO, it is not at all the same. NH WB B was a very short term thing, with a very specific once-in-a-lifetime cause (hopefully, anyway). But there is a parallel, as the data will show.

From the January SL for the last 5 years before Covid hit - the plug NB A varied between the M88 or 717:

2016: 82.5%
2017: 85.7%
2018: 87.7%
2019: 81.3%
2020: 78.1%

After hiring returned in 2014 after a decade and a half of almost no hiring, the effects on staffing were eventually felt, and the "% to hold" NB A dropped from 82.5% to as low as 89.5% (I didn't check every month, but the highest NB A % I found was Jun 2018). Then, when they started closing the M88 bases (in order, CVG/NYC, then MSP, and finally ATL), the percentages trended senior again as the MadDog was being drawn down. IMO, this was primarily due to the -88 displacements. So what about that decade and a half, where there are only roughly 650 numbers between the last 2001 hire and 2014 hires? Those pilots, who (no coincidence) took 15+ years to hold Captain, were the unfortunate victims of multiple circumstances. In 2001: 9/11; 2005: Bankruptcy; 2007: 60>65; 2008: DL/NW merger. Super unlucky timing for those 99-2001 hires, especially if they were NW. Almost zero hiring for 15 years... My point is this, THAT wasn't normal, even if it happened to a lot of pilots for 15ish years. Or at least, there is a new normal over the last decade...

So, I would argue it's fair to say that compared to history, a very stable 86-87% for NB A is within "normal". Again, it may trend slightly more senior as hiring returns to (pre-covid) "normal", but barring some genuine and major change in hiring practices beyond what they have announced, I don't see it changing my more than 4-5% tops. So the question really is, how long will it take a NH today to rise to mid-80's seniority?



*edit to add* Sorry, the math and typing took some time with other things going on in the house. Agree with the previous 2 posts, though I personally think if they hire like they have pseudo-projected, NB A will be quicker than 4.5 years.

Gooner

Fantastic break down and you are spot on that the correct way to look at upgrade is percentage. For prospective hires this post should be exactly how you look at progression. The other part is base and fleet break down, certain bases and fleets trend very differently. But those seem to be in flux with a new generation of pilots finding where they want to go.

I also liked how you broke out the experience of seniority for different eras of hires, fangs. For better or worse pilots hired today will have a different experience than those hired over the last two years, but will actually probably track to be simply “normal.” But there are always going to be mitigating circumstances, look what happened to pilots hired from 98-08, crazy things. But who had Boeing imploding itself on the 737, who had airbuses delayed 6plus months for engines, that now need to be taken off wing again in under 5 years. The 220 has tripped so many times already and is limping. That’s just airplane stuff, without delving into the other section of the news, luckily stepping on the age 67 rake seems to have been avoided.

I tend to agree that as long as wide body delivery is held mostly on schedule and NEOs don’t experience significant delays seniority progression should maintain for at least two years. Not sure how that will affect upgrade times but the percentage to hold upgrade I think in the mean time moves more senior for about a year due to the 4000 new hires over the last 36 months feeling comfortable to move to the next seat will create a slight shift in bidding, the 7ER pilots being the wild card in all of the movement.

FangsF15

All good points. One other factor I should have included as also contributing strongly to upgrade percentage rising in 2019 and 2020: the “pause” in hiring in the fall of 2018, which led to the infamous summer of 2019 being “run a little hot”. And the remaining time up to Covid being short staffed.

Things will ebb and flow, but as long as hiring continues at a reasonable pace, we will continue to see NB available in the mid 80s%. IMO. Also, things can change rapidly when external forces put pressure on the seniority list. If the music slows down greatly, or heaven forbid stops, the thousands of pilots who are saying “no thanks“ to upgrade will gobble up the few opportunities that exist. Especially if that happens for an extended period time, like years. Plan accordingly

PilotBases

I'm thinking we see a more normal 1000 hired/500 retire cycle, so growth of 500/year. Not as crazy as the two years hiring 2000+. A 2021 hire will have a vastly different seniority path than a 2025 one.