Viper25

Yes there's always a chance. Doesn't hurt to put in the bid.

Meme In Command

Chance? yes, but through backfills since no actual ATL 7ERB positions were posted.

Planetrain

On the macro level, the Max deliveries probably have a greater chance of being delayed than being on time. Still waiting for Max10 or 7 certification. FAA Final assembly throughput collar of 38/month is going to threaten all airlines’ plans. Spot price on NEOs are probably an all time high too and slim production slot availability. Guessing the 7ER fleet quits shrinking for the foreseeable future. I thought for sure LAX7ER was on a 12-24mo lifespan. Maybe the tea leaves are saying different. What a great time to be a heavy check mechanic!

FangsF15

FWIW, that math only works as long as we were hiring 200-ish a month, which was hiring 3 additional pilots for every 1 replacing a retiring pilot. Hiring is about to “slow down” to 100-ish a month, which is only hiring 1 additional pilot for every 1 pilot retiring.

Also, as hiring slows down, I suspect the system seniority to hold captain (and WB B, and…) will begin to creep senior.

I only say any of that for expectation management, not to discourage you from trying. Best of luck!

Impossible to predict, as it depends wholly on the bidding behavior of current ATL 7ER B’s bidding out, opening a spot to backfill. It would be surprising if there were enough backfills to fall to a recent hire’s seniority with no posted vacancies. But as others have said, absolutely keep your bid in until it hits. Good luck!

Whoopsmybad

At 100/month wouldn’t it be hiring 2 pilots for every 1 retiring?

Hotel Kilo

I've posted here on APC multiple times about MAX 10 and how thinking it would be here first in '23, then in late '24/early '25 was a pipe dream. My guess is late '26 or early '27. One more negative notch in the belt in that program and it's going to be a long up hill slog for final certification. I also, on a corollary, posted that the 75/76 fleet was going nowhere fast. The 75 PW engines are slated for an upgrade, all of them. We wouldn't do that if we were planning on parking them (new interiors, that's a different story, IYKYK )

NEOs are not working out as planned due to the total lack of payload (cargo) they are limited on when flying longer ranges. It's not the jet we thought it would be. Yes, it is efficient, but so are the current crop of 73-900s. And we got all of those super cheap. They are very reliable and that goes a long way. Especially when flying to the carribbean. As far as "D" checks, we'll see. I think it all depends on the delivery schedules from Airbus. I can see the D-check planes going to park, but you never know. Fleet Management might have already run the calculus and determined that the juice is worth the squeeze. We'll soo find out.

StayFrosty

As usual spot on. I think my growth is about to shallow out at a very inopportune time for me. Is what it is, I’m in a good place overall but expectation managment is important. February and March are set to be big hiring months still (rumor) so should squeeze out a couple more percentage points. Regardless, from where I came from, my QOL has never been better so I’ll take the “W”.

FangsF15

For the purposes of illustration, this is all super rough/rounded math, but we are retiring an average of about 45/month, or a little over 500/year. Mgmt has publicly said will hire less than 1100 this year (which is 91/month , but for the purposes of rough math, I used a more generous figure of 100/month).

So of that 91, half are replacing retirements (45ish), and half are growth, for a ratio of 1:1. Again, roughly.

That doesn’t even consider that when we take into account that we will hire over half of 2024’s total in Q1, that leaves even less ‘growth hiring’ for the remainder of the year.

My overall point is that when you take retirement-replacement-hires out of the annual total, we are about to cut the ‘growth’ portion pretty drastically. And that will have the effect of slowing seniority-rise, and separately but simultaneously drive AE awards more senior (very likely, anyway).

Scoop

One thing not mentioned above is how staffing affects upgrade ability. If staffing returns to more historical levels, meaning fewer GS, you will see plenty of senior FOs make the jump to the left seat. I know plenty of super senior FOs who don’t want to upgrade when they can totally control their schedules, including vacations, when they can routinely credit in triple digits. A few months of zero GS action may alter this.

There will always be GS for the very senior folks, and summer GSs for most but I am not sure about multiple GS per month. Junior pilots might also have a hard time getting any GS. Then again this all depends on DAL somewhat properly staffing the airline which always seems just around the corner but never arrives.

Anyway, just some random thoughts.

Scoop - said in a Jack Handy voice

FangsF15

Awesome attitude. Gotta keep perspective, even when things ‘slow’ (to an otherwise near-historic level).