Prepare Yourselves… 2024 AEs
01-17-2024, 12:46 PM
#205
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01-17-2024, 12:47 PM
#206
Leaves Biscoff crumbs
Joined APC: Jan 2020
Position: Blue Juice Taste Tester
Posts: 1,363
01-17-2024, 12:59 PM
#209
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Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,812
...I suspect we've seen the last big drop in Seniority for a time with [the Dec] bid.
Dec AE Plug
WB A 455X, 27.1% (Note: Non NYC 330 plug 405X, 24.1%)
WB B 1XXXX, 87.4%
NB A 146XX, 87.4%
NB A still holding rock solid at 87%, now for 6 AE's straight. WB A was pretty much in line with the NOV AE (both due to massive NYC 330A vacancies), dropping about another 60 numbers, but still more junior than any AE before Nov. The bigger movement, however, was in the non-NYC plug, which dropped more like 600 numbers. That could be a 'warning' sign of more juniority coming - which will definitely happen eventually if we have WB order (Delivery schedule is the key, which is unlikely in the next 20 months). Finally, the biggest news in this AE is the significant drop in WB B. It dropped nearly 3000 numbers (barring one statistical outlier from the NOV bid), which I suspect is a fluke, but we'll need to see more AE's to know if that's true. There were 88 WB B's awarded on 55 posted vacancies. The 55th award on this AE was at 116XX/70%, which is right in line where all prior AE's landed.
Originally Posted by FangsF15 View Post
That NY 330 category is clearly growing bigly, and based on the last AE, will likely drive the juniority of WB A down evern further.
That NY 330 category is clearly growing bigly, and based on the last AE, will likely drive the juniority of WB A down evern further.
Dec AE Plug
WB A 455X, 27.1% (Note: Non NYC 330 plug 405X, 24.1%)
WB B 1XXXX, 87.4%
NB A 146XX, 87.4%
NB A still holding rock solid at 87%, now for 6 AE's straight. WB A was pretty much in line with the NOV AE (both due to massive NYC 330A vacancies), dropping about another 60 numbers, but still more junior than any AE before Nov. The bigger movement, however, was in the non-NYC plug, which dropped more like 600 numbers. That could be a 'warning' sign of more juniority coming - which will definitely happen eventually if we have WB order (Delivery schedule is the key, which is unlikely in the next 20 months). Finally, the biggest news in this AE is the significant drop in WB B. It dropped nearly 3000 numbers (barring one statistical outlier from the NOV bid), which I suspect is a fluke, but we'll need to see more AE's to know if that's true. There were 88 WB B's awarded on 55 posted vacancies. The 55th award on this AE was at 116XX/70%, which is right in line where all prior AE's landed.
Jan AE Plug
WB A 46XX, 27.5%
WB B 145XX, 86.3% (Not surprisingly in NYC. BUT, only 9 awards senior was over 2000 numbers senior. That person was 72.6%)
NB A 145XX, 86%
NB A still holding rock steady, very slightly more senior by percentage at 86.0%. So for 7 AE's straight, it's been ~86-87% for NB A. I think we can safely say the NB A line has been fairly well established until something comes along to upset that balance. The biggest news is WB A in ATL WB A at 41XX, 1000 numbers lower than anytime I'm aware of - until the Dec AE, it took a mid 2XXX to hold WB A in ATL. NYC WB A is similar to the last couple bids, but with all the recent NYC 330A awards, that well may start to run dry. We'll have to wait and see. WB B did drop down again to the mid 14,500's, but only 9 people above the plug WB B on this AE was 2000 numbers senior to that, at 72.6%, which is much more in line with most of recent history (unsuprisingly, all 9+ of them were NYC 330 B). It's still too early to really tell where that might finally settle, especially once you take out a few statisitcal outliers of a few lucky bidders. The recent 350-1000 order announcement's timeline won't see any deliveries for at least 2 years, which means that won't drive any postings for at least 20 months. However, 'existing' 330/350 deliveries in '24 might keep award levels similar to where they have been over the last few AE's.
*Note: GH did hint with the 35K announcement there would be a new 350 base commensurate with those deliveries. Still well down the road, though...
**Note 2: The bottom award for a NH with a base change was not even on the Jan Seniority List posted on 2 Jan. NH's can still expect to be able to change bases/domiciles on thier original equipment within a month, or two at the outside.
Last edited by FangsF15; 01-17-2024 at 01:28 PM.
01-17-2024, 01:00 PM
#210
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: 320B
Posts: 221
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