tennisguru

There is also a bump as people wait to train past January in order to keep their better seniority for vacation bidding.

Planetrain

Just look at the category lists. The picture you’re painting that it takes 24 years to hold LAXWBB is not true. You just can’t be awarded it on this underwhelming micro-AE because there are no slots.
Maybe we are talking past each other?

crazyjaydawg

That is 100% true. The poster that was complaining did not get hired in that era…

game

Yes, we're looking at different things. You're looking at what has been the seniorioty get an award on a previous bids. I'm looking at the current snapshot of what seniority is required to get an award for a seat on the September 2024 AE. I'd argue that people care more about what it takes to get a seat today than what it took to get a seat yesterday.

FangsF15

I agree with your first paragraph entirely. (I would also note mid-bids are often notably more junior than final awards, and aren’t really helpful except to individual bidders). Also, tennis’ point is excellent and underrated - this bid will be slightly junior to the next couple as a result.

However, I wish people wouldn’t even talk about ”Time to hold” in this context. The swings over time are so subject to change that’s it’s really meaningless, other then maybe a ‘gee whiz’ curiosity. It’s also what leads to some NH’s rude awakening on hugely unrealistic upgrade expectations.

However, “% to hold” has been remarkably stable over the last 15 AE’s, and is very instructive regardless of size of list or hiring landscape. (The few statistical outliers have an easy explanation.) % also allows one to quickly see trends over periods of time, as well as compare one ‘season’ to another. The question NH’s should ask/figure out is “how long to get to X%”.

The “AE Trend Analysis” pinned thread helps show this. I’ve thought about adding a graph to show the trends as well - it’s pretty apparent when you look at the data.

Gunfighter

#1 in the company can't hold ATL 73N A, ATL 7ERA and a host of other positions by your logic. It takes a vacancy to move on an AE.

Uninteresting

I would think the more frequent bids would lower the seniority somewhat as those waiting for something which they can easily hold now know they won’t have to wait 6-8 months (versus 1). That and the QOL of being senior is tough to give up.

JetPilotDaddy

SEA, the forgotten base

tripled

sshhhhhh. That’s just how we like it

fishforfun

When do the ER retirements start to pick up?