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Old 09-06-2024, 07:00 AM
  #1461  
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Originally Posted by Xjtpilot518
Trying to get some different perspectives, I know no posted positions for NYC765B or NYC330B, but always chances for backfills. I would have a similar seniority for both, somewhere between 60-70%. Coming from ER so shorter training on that side.

Anyone care to offer their opinion?
I have my opinions, but I'd rather just contribute some questions for consideration.

Are you more concerned about your back or skin cancer? Boeing flies in bumpy air at lower altitude. Airbus will expose you to more radiation at higher crossing altitudes.

Does D1 vs Class 1 rest matter?

What is your plan A (WBA or NBA)? Not many Boeing WB options. Lots of Boeing NB options. Airbus has NB and WB options.
​​​​​
Would you prefer options outside of NYC or ATL?
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Old 09-06-2024, 07:11 AM
  #1462  
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For those saying the AE is lame - not saying I agree or disagree however with these monthly AE that we wanted, it creates the sensation that nothing is happeing. However this AE included the last 3 AE have produced 114 Widebody A positions in 3 months. Thats quite significant but you just cant feel the movement its creating. To me it seems as if the first officer widebody side of the AE has not kept up almost as if they are purposely running those categories short, and Domestic Captain positions also have been very small since spring.
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Old 09-06-2024, 07:36 AM
  #1463  
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Originally Posted by NWA4LIFE
For those saying the AE is lame - not saying I agree or disagree however with these monthly AE that we wanted, it creates the sensation that nothing is happeing. However this AE included the last 3 AE have produced 114 Widebody A positions in 3 months. Thats quite significant but you just cant feel the movement its creating. To me it seems as if the first officer widebody side of the AE has not kept up almost as if they are purposely running those categories short, and Domestic Captain positions also have been very small since spring.
Agree. Perhaps they are avoiding unpredictable bids, going the OODA route and trying to stack the WBA positions a bit senior (1999/2000/2001) to prevent cascading displacements when the ER fleet winds down. No point in having a bunch of late-2007 to 2014 seniority pilots on WBA to only get flushed when the ER displaces. Keeping vacancies for NBA and WBB also affords a place for displaced 757 pilots to end up vs flusing newly trained pilots out. After Covid, I am sure they will be very tactical in how they handle the ER drawdown and BOS opening.

The AE will also change after the election when the economy becomes more predictable. My .02, it could get very crazy just before the election and they are sitting on their hands so to speak. We dont know, they dont know, Wall St. doesn't know.
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Old 09-06-2024, 07:44 AM
  #1464  
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Originally Posted by CrazyEight
Agree. Perhaps they are avoiding unpredictable bids, going the OODA route and trying to stack the WBA positions a bit senior (1999/2000/2001) to prevent cascading displacements when the ER fleet winds down. No point in having a bunch of late-2007 to 2014 seniority pilots on WBA to only get flushed when the ER displaces. Keeping vacancies for NBA and WBB also affords a place for displaced 757 pilots to end up vs flusing newly trained pilots out. After Covid, I am sure they will be very tactical in how they handle the ER drawdown and BOS opening.

The AE will also change after the election when the economy becomes more predictable. My .02, it could get very crazy just before the election and they are sitting on their hands so to speak. We dont know, they dont know, Wall St. doesn't know.
Yeah, the ER is slowly drawing down over many years, two 763s parked in the last week. They can probably mostly manage the category shrinkage with retirements and lack of backfilling for the senior ones who bid 764/330/350. FOs take the upgrade or go to real WB. I think it'll be a while before we see legit displacements off the ER, and they could probably find enough willing to take a VD.
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Old 09-06-2024, 07:55 AM
  #1465  
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None of this fits the narrative: all hands on deck for summer, then when fall hits all the instructors back in the sims and ready to train.

30WBAs/month barely matches mandatory retirements.

Where’s the growth?

17,000 pilots and not a single NBA?

september AE let me down.
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Old 09-06-2024, 08:29 AM
  #1466  
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Originally Posted by Planetrain
None of this fits the narrative: all hands on deck for summer, then when fall hits all the instructors back in the sims and ready to train.

30WBAs/month barely matches mandatory retirements.

Where’s the growth?

17,000 pilots and not a single NBA?

september AE let me down.
can’t speak for other fleets but 73NA is pretty overstaffed. I’m not the least bit surprised they didn’t post any positions on that fleet
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Old 09-06-2024, 08:29 AM
  #1467  
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Originally Posted by Planetrain
None of this fits the narrative: all hands on deck for summer, then when fall hits all the instructors back in the sims and ready to train.

30WBAs/month barely matches mandatory retirements.

Where’s the growth?

17,000 pilots and not a single NBA?

september AE let me down.
Considering there are several NBA categories that are showing more staffing than they want (per the memo), I am not shocked at all.
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Old 09-06-2024, 08:31 AM
  #1468  
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Originally Posted by Gone Flying
can’t speak for other fleets but 73NA is very overstaffed
Originally the staffing for the Max would be getting started right now (when ordered goal was Q1 25), so that's thrown a wrench in it.
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Old 09-06-2024, 08:50 AM
  #1469  
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Originally Posted by Planetrain
None of this fits the narrative: all hands on deck for summer, then when fall hits all the instructors back in the sims and ready to train.

30WBAs/month barely matches mandatory retirements.

Where’s the growth?

17,000 pilots and not a single NBA?

september AE let me down.
Get comfortable where you are at. NBA openings will likely be slim pickings until Boeing and P&W get their stuff together and/or A350-1000 staffing begins
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Old 09-06-2024, 08:54 AM
  #1470  
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Originally Posted by Planetrain
None of this fits the narrative: all hands on deck for summer, then when fall hits all the instructors back in the sims and ready to train.

30WBAs/month barely matches mandatory retirements.

Where’s the growth?

17,000 pilots and not a single NBA?

september AE let me down.
I guess we’re reading different narratives. I see no movement for a few years. I expect the airline to shrink organically as pilots retire. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s no hiring in 2025. Believe it or not, it has happened before.
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