flightlessbirds

It started with the permanent DUS cancellation last year, today DL announced permanent STR cancellation.

The draw-down is starting and will only accelerate with the SAS integration, in my opinion.

Prediction … when the 763s leave the TATL market, DL Metal will no longer be flying most (if not all) of these cities:
-ARN
-CPH
-EDI (maybe seasonal ATL stays and BOS goes to a NEO)
-PRG
-GVA
-NAP
-LGW
-BER
-LIS (BOS stays as a NEO or 330)
-Not to mention many summer seasonal second frequencies
Not to mention the LAX-PPT and HNL-HND and GIG routes that are currently squatted on by the 763 that one must assume are low yielding routes.

A management that wanted to compete in the small gauge p2p long haul world would have purchased a 763 replacement aircraft or updated the interiors to a Polaris-like configuration with a pseudo-modern business class. But they wanted to milk the most out of the frames without investing for the next generation in this space (or even an adequate bridge) when the Boeing NMA project fell through.

notEnuf

Save this for future reference. It is the philosophy management uses and the genesis of global SCOPE. All we can do is hope global scope doesn't garner the same (dis)respect all our previous international SCOPE compliance did. #write'emintocompliance

NWA4LIFE

We have at least 8-9 more 339 coming, plus options for 10 more - then we have at least 10 more 359 coming maybe 15 plus 25 a350-1000 plus options for 10 more. That alone right there covers every single 767 leaving. Where do you propose all of these aircraft are going to fly?
my bet would be as a 767-300 is retired - it goes to a 330-200, 330-300 or 764. Whatever route that was on goes to a 339 and whatever route that was on goes to a 359 and so on.
Delta doesnt cancel routes unless they dont make money. If those routes listed make money - they will be on a 330 in the future - its going to be a very fun category.

flightlessbirds

Most of the orders we have seen (and options) seem to be:
1.) Replacements for the 777 lift lost during COVID. Doesn’t look like much growth if you put the baseline at pre-COVID including 777 and 763 numbers prior to the cargo fire sale.
2.) Re-building pre-covid Asia network. Everyone is still at a shell of pre-COVID Asia flying. I may be wrong but I think they will get credit for this in global scope based on when the baselines were created during the covid recovery.
3.) Replacements for aging 330s. Oldest 330s are 20+ years old as well.
4.) Feed into partner hubs. Increase frequencies and cities served into AMS, CDG, LHR, ICN.
5.) Replace 763 transcons.

That is a simplistic view … if Delta can make ^more^ money flying those passengers on a “partner” the whole trip and acting as a ticketing agency and capture revenue via the JV ^or^ shove those PAX to AMS and pay KLM to take the last mile they will.

Changing equipment changes the cost structure and the new equipment also has a different set of opportunity costs … the question partly becomes, as a thought exercise: can they make more with a 330neo into ARN for instance, or as second frequency SLC-AMS feeding those same ARN pax through via KLM.

The revenue side also changes as more seats in a city pair can depress yields and that has always been something DL cares deeply about … part of why you see them consistently flying smaller equipment into a place than the competition does.


My basic argument is that the future of DL widebody flying is feeding partner hubs with 330s and 350s. Yes some of the better moated, high demand p2p flying will survive (look at LOS and LIM on the 350, for instance), but only the stuff that can absorb the higher capacities and doesn’t have a compelling JV outsourced alternative.

I don’t believe much of the second and third tier Europe stuff qualifies (the JV path of least resistance looks too good on the spreadsheet to the folks running the show) and I believe DUS and STR are in some ways canaries in the coal mine.

Of course the caveat is “under current management” … if they ever get a management team that wants to compete and run things from an operational perspective this could change, but I don’t see it from this group.

Gone Flying

yikes, yeah I can see why we would want to put the 339s on less performance demanding routes than SEA-Asia like a previous poster mentioned.

Gone Flying

[QUOTE=notEnuf;3833234]who else flies the 339 in HND on long routes? Not a ton of operators, and it seems like most are in Europe.

Scoop

[QUOTE=notEnuf;3833234]
I don’t know why but we seem to be the problem children with the wrong way requests. Maybe other 339 operators don’t have RR engines?

Then again maybe other airlines are more hesitant to put an aircraft on a route that it will struggle with.

One of life’s great mysteries.

Scoop

CrazyEight

If they park the 767-300, I can't imagine the -400 will be too many years behind them. That is a small fleet to maintain for an otherwise all Airbus airline, minus the 737. The new AC deliveries cover the parking of the remaining Boeing WB's. The post Covid expansion via the ER's was exactly as the previous poster stated, just milking the cow before puting it to pasture. It was the perfect fleet to have sitting around for "revenge travel."

Yes, I agree with you.

flightlessbirds

Another route cancellation announced:

JFK-BOG

NuclearFission

The beginning of the end for the good flying on the 7ER. Get ready for nothing but ATL flying from here on out. Transcons will be gone by end of next year and the Europe is slowly winding down.