Prepare Yourselves… 2024 AEs
#1281
it’s a total head scratcher to me how you can keep pointing towards historical norms, when we are continuously marching towards new norms. Jan 2020 we had about 95 big widebodies. As of July we have 121 with 45 firm orders.
It’s not an outlier that Widebody A went to 27% last winter and it won’t be an outlier when it goes to 29/30% this winter. And the first 2014s will be under 30.5% by Feb 1.
It’s not an outlier that Widebody A went to 27% last winter and it won’t be an outlier when it goes to 29/30% this winter. And the first 2014s will be under 30.5% by Feb 1.
And you will note I did not say it will never shift/drop to 30%, I said it certainly won't happen in the next 5 months. 5 years from now (assuming all goes well and we actually get 45 more WB deliveries and 763 replacements), it absoulutely could be at 30%, and maybe even sooner than that. But it's very likely to be a (relatively) slow march, not a sudden "new norm" in one or two AE's - as history has shown us.
FWIW, while it's a fun parlor game, I really don't care about 2000/01 vs. 2010 vs. 2014 getting WB A. In real terms, it's meaningless, other than one additional seniority number. I also really don't like calling it a "wall". When it consitently cracks 30%, for example, that's a "wall falling". An actual shift. IMO, we shouldn't call the inevitable awards of 2010 or 2014 hires being awareded WB A a "wall falling".
As I've said, I'd love to be wrong. I just think basing analysis on real data, and not gut feel or hopium is a better predictor of "future returns". No guarantees offered.
#1282
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2024
Posts: 45
it’s a total head scratcher to me how you can keep pointing towards historical norms, when we are continuously marching towards new norms. Jan 2020 we had about 95 big widebodies. As of July we have 121 with 45 firm orders.
It’s not an outlier that Widebody A went to 27% last winter and it won’t be an outlier when it goes to 29/30% this winter. And the first 2014s will be under 30.5% by Feb 1.
It’s not an outlier that Widebody A went to 27% last winter and it won’t be an outlier when it goes to 29/30% this winter. And the first 2014s will be under 30.5% by Feb 1.
#1283
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,238
#1284
On Reserve
Joined APC: Jun 2024
Posts: 18
Fast forward to 2028-2030 time frame. All of the 767 doing int flights are done - meaning those flights have to be flown with a 764- 330 or 350 350-1000 If you look at how many ER captains there are, many of them junior - where does that put the most junior 330/350 captain in 2028? 5,000-6000?
#1285
Fast forward to 2028-2030 time frame. All of the 767 doing int flights are done - meaning those flights have to be flown with a 764- 330 or 350 350-1000 If you look at how many ER captains there are, many of them junior - where does that put the most junior 330/350 captain in 2028? 5,000-6000?
#1286
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,238
The most junior 330/350 captain stays at the exact % system-wide as it is today (baring the 'shift with growth' argument). All the junior 7ER captains that get displaced as the fleet shrinks can go ONLY to where their seniority can hold. They may not be senior enough to hold 330/350 CA when the fleet goes away.
#1287
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,757
Heres when the Maxes show up and dilute the 73Na seniority. Maybe they come, *maybe* they don’t.
Does the Max fly the same 321N trips? Do they go west coast to Hawaii? Or does the company fly these on the medium haul domestic.
Does the Max fly the same 321N trips? Do they go west coast to Hawaii? Or does the company fly these on the medium haul domestic.
#1288
This is why it will go junior. It might get to people but those people are doing well as senior WBB, or senior enough NBA and won't mess up thier deals to claim the throne.
#1289
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 339
The most junior 330/350 captain stays at the exact % system-wide as it is today (baring the 'shift with growth' argument). All the junior 7ER captains that get displaced as the fleet shrinks can go ONLY to where their seniority can hold. They may not be senior enough to hold 330/350 CA when the fleet goes away.
#1290
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,636
i’m guessing 320 will get a good chunk of the ER displacements that can’t hold WB.
1. The NEO rate is not a pay cut for them while the current 73N rate is. (MAX rate TBD, if we even get it). by 2030 I’m expecting all our 320s and most our 319s to be gone while we get more 321NEOs, that would drive the average rate for that fleet higher.
2. If they do want to go WB, the 320 will give them a short course to WB A when they can hold it. Plus allow them to learn AB on a domestic fleet if they have never flown it.
1. The NEO rate is not a pay cut for them while the current 73N rate is. (MAX rate TBD, if we even get it). by 2030 I’m expecting all our 320s and most our 319s to be gone while we get more 321NEOs, that would drive the average rate for that fleet higher.
2. If they do want to go WB, the 320 will give them a short course to WB A when they can hold it. Plus allow them to learn AB on a domestic fleet if they have never flown it.
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