m3113n1a1

I feel like you're close...just need some NB As actually posted and you'll be good.

Jonny Drama

I would say it’s trending considerably more junior than last year at this time….

AUG 2023 AE had 55 Widebody A vacancies
Plug was 3820

AUG 2024 AE had 40 Widebody A vacancies
plug was 4060

if this trend keeps going I’m predicting 2010s, with an outside chance of 2014s, getting Widebody A by Feb 2025 AE. They’ll be in the 5000-5200 range then.

Planetrain

If the seniority for WBA moves 240 numbers in a year, how do you see it move 1000 more numbers in 6 months?

FangsF15

You are neglecting to account for total size of the seniority list. “Number to hold” doesn’t work across time with a growing/shrinking list. There are nearly 1100 more pilots on the list than a year ago.

In Aug of 2023, it took 23.5% in the company to hold WB A. This AE it took 23.4%. Using “percent to hold” controls for the size of the list, and ‘what it takes to hold’ becomes very consistent, and trends can much more easily be analyzed.

If you go back up one level and look at the “AE Trend Analysis” pinned thread, the numbers will become apparent. I’ve thought about making a simple graph to help visualize it further.

2010 hires are nearly 1300 numbers away from WB A. It would have to drop to 31% for 2010 hires to get it in 6 months (on todays size list). Even if we added a net of 500 pilots in 6 months, it would still need to go to ~30%. It does vary seasonally, and last Feb, WB A got down to 27%, but in Mar was under 25%. I highly, highly doubt your prediction, even with some larger WB numbers coming over the winter.

CrazyEight

High take rate in the 2000/2001 range. Still clipping at early 2007 hires. Cruising the list, there are a lot of pilots hired in their mid-20s from 2007 to 2008. For each of those that takes a WBA slot, that will lock up a seat for two decades! 20 years, WBA. I see a continuation of 2000/2001 taking WBA as they finish out a career. The 2007/2008 group will have kids out of high school and waive weekends off.

2007's trickling in for the balance of 2024
2008 and 10's 2025
2014's in 2026

Yes there are deliveries, but the 767's go at some point

CrazyEight

I like your optimism, but I would temper my Ferrari 458 searches!

Jonny Drama

My point is it made that move with 30% fewer vacancies compared to a year ago. Imagine what happens this year a little deeper into Widebody AE season on an AE with 50-60 spots instead of 40.

And if it made it to 27% last year, it’s going to go down even more this year with more large airframes. I am not sure of the number of yoy 350/330 increase. I would wager that the majority of ER downsizing will come from the bottom and not the top, especially at first until the seniors really start to feel the pain of worsening trips.

And I have the beginning of 2010s clocking in conservatively at 30% by February 1. 5100/17000. Realistically closer to 29%. Since the list should be slightly larger and they should be slightly under that.

Jonny Drama

😂 I’m more of a late 60s, early 70s American muscle guy myself. And while it will be cool to say I can hold Widebody A, I think another 15-18 mos for me (early-mid 2014), I will be waiting a lot longer to pull the trigger.

NuGuy

Not suprising. This is classic fNWA bidding behavior with monthly bids. Once the training window moves out past holidays or summer, bids always went more senior. The best part about it is it is very predicable, like the tides.

More people are also cluing into the soft pay the NBs have. Contrary to popular opinion here, most people don't follow this stuff, and so the zeitgeist changes way slower than you'd think. I was talking with someone a few weeks ago, and they had just figured out how RR pay works, got extended a day, and got a fat paycheck for 4 days work (with some EDP for good measure). Eventually word, slow as it is, gets around.

Jonny Drama

I would say “A lot” is a bit subjective…. I would have been 27 y/o for almost the entire 07/08 hiring window and there are only 65-70 pilots younger than me that were hired then. I didn’t get hired until 34 btw and still will crack the top 150, so I think “a lot in their mid 20s” is a little misleading.