Prepare Yourselves… 2024 AEs

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07-16-2024, 03:02 PM

#1121

PilotBases

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Joined APC: Apr 2020

Posts: 2,373

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockeypilot44

I think you’re way too optimistic. Deliveries don’t mean growth. It’s no secret that the 767’s are going away. It seems the growth is over for awhile. Would be complete stagnation for awhile if not for retirements. Those of us hired pre 2014 know the drill.

We have 500 retirements a year and plan for around 1000 pilots hired here on out, that's growth.

The retirements in the fleet are a handful of 75/76/320s that are well passed their 30th birthdays. Neos are coming monthly, wide bodies as mentioned, and still a handful of 220s each year. Think the last few 717s come back this year too. All projected deliveries are posted on the quarterly reports.

Theres also 75 Neo options, 30 Max, and 20 widebody. I'd expect all to be converted to firm.

07-16-2024, 05:43 PM

#1122

hockeypilot44

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Joined APC: Jul 2008

Posts: 5,016

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotBases

Got it. We’re going to grow forever and no one is ever going backwards again. Lol. You’re going to be disappointed. If the profits keep shrinking, the growth will stop.

07-16-2024, 06:32 PM

#1123

notEnuf

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Joined APC: Mar 2015

Position: stake holder ir.delta.com

Posts: 10,454

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockeypilot44

Got it. We’re going to grow forever and no one is ever going backwards again. Lol. You’re going to be disappointed. If the profits keep shrinking, the growth will stop.

Shrinking is a curious description. YOY profits shrank slightly for Q2 with costs up. We are however, making great profits. Did you notice we paid down a lot of debt? Enough to get an upgrade on our debt to investment grade today, and the stock had a nice 7% pop as well. We're doing fine, actually top of the industry.

Last edited by notEnuf; 07-16-2024 at 06:43 PM.

07-17-2024, 03:49 AM

#1124

170Till5

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Joined APC: Feb 2022

Posts: 655

Quote:

Originally Posted by notEnuf

DL’s growth plan is 8% per year last I’ve heard. There won’t be shrinking. That’s not how public companies work

07-17-2024, 04:20 AM

#1125

CrazyEight

Line Holder

Joined APC: Sep 2023

Posts: 85

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trip7

Still early. This is just the first WB A bid after the Summer break. Lots of deliveries on the way. The WB A wall will likely fall by Fall 25 when the 350-1000 positions are posted. However, a Darkhorse wall fall could be THIS Fall if sizable WB A positions are posted with possible training over the Holidays.

Fall '25 for 2007 and 2008, of which there are over 1000 of. They will have 18 years on the property AND hired on after massive post 9-11 stagnation. If those pilots are sick of domestic, they will take WB-A and 2014 positions will be a few years past that. Most have figured out that 99% WB-A > 15% NB-A, by a wide margin. There are also 2000 and 2001 pilots ahead of 2007 and 2008. As a percentage of the list, WB-A is still fairly small. It wouldn't take much of a percentage of 2000-2008 wanting to transition to WB-A to lock up some seats for 15 to 20 years. There were more than a few 2007 and 2008's hired in their mid-twenties.

07-17-2024, 04:58 AM

#1126

PilotWombat

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Joined APC: Jun 2019

Position: Currently freeloading

Posts: 549

Quote:

Originally Posted by FangsF15

Bypasses are part of it (9 of the 10). But go count for yourself. There is no mechanism in the PWA to award base transfer only and exclude it from any posted total. There are 36 WB A base transfers which are not bypasses, which is not the difference anyway.

Well, let's see. 91 awards:

37 Base transfers (1 bypass)
6 WBA-WBA
13 WBB-WBA (1 bypass)
35 NBA-WBA (7 bypasses)

Those numbers match up then, 40 open positions on the AE plus 8 bypasses. So while there were 91 total awards to a WB-A position, only 48 were actual movement. Still really good, but not 91 good.

07-17-2024, 05:16 AM

#1127

Hubcapped

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Joined APC: Jun 2022

Posts: 1,437

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockeypilot44

. It seems the growth is over for awhile.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockeypilot44

Got it. We’re going to grow forever and no one is ever going backwards again. Lol. You’re going to be disappointed. If the profits keep shrinking, the growth will stop.

bru. Pick a lane and stay in it. Are we growing or not? Classic flip flopping. Says one thing, gets refuted quite easily, and instead of being an adult and acknowledging the point….flops like a little fish to some nebulous non quantifiable truth that will inevitably happen again at some point.

07-17-2024, 05:39 AM

#1128

Viper25

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Joined APC: Jul 2008

Posts: 707

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hubcapped

The two quotes of his you showed didn’t seem contradictory.

07-17-2024, 06:38 AM

#1129

Hubcapped

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Joined APC: Jun 2022

Posts: 1,437

Quote:

Originally Posted by Viper25

The two quotes of his you showed didn’t seem contradictory.

really? Unless im missing something (possible) this is the sequence of events

”growth is over for awhile”

but we are retiring 500 and hiring 1000

”growth wont be forever”

you cant have it both ways. If your going to say we will eventually stop growing….well duhh, obviously

theres always a doom and gloom crowd. Theres always a “recession is around the corner” crowd. Barring a black swan event, im quite confident in delta’s ability to make money