Nantonaku

If you truly believe United is going to grow to 28,000 pilots then the choice is easy. You would be close to 35% in about 6 years. That would be an amazing career. I would bet a lot of money that doesn’t happen but who knows. Delta has been hellbent on outsourcing International flying the past decade. That would weigh on my decision.

saturn

UA is very clear with their 1 year, 5 year, 10 year plans. I have heard annual hiring goals, fleet goals, etc. They even coined it with a catchy name (United Next). 28k pilots? Wow! Will it happen? Maybe, probably. By 2030? Who knows. At least their intentions are known.

Delta is very different. We have vague platitudes of an annual "flight plan", and have to read the tea leaves with aircraft orders with obscure delivery timelines to speculate what that means for growth. Do we retire planes, or are we keeping them longer and take new jets as growth? We don't know. They don't tell us their medium and long term plans for the enterprise. They haven't given us a target pilot size beyond 1 year in about ever. Forget about >1 year or by 2030. In 2022, doubt many people pilots knew that we'd be at 16k now, or 17k by the end of this year.

My take is this. UA has better gateways for international than AA & DL. They are undersized domestically vs DL & AA. Adding NBs only helps balance WB network feed. Coupled with their over-reliance on RJs, mainline UA has room to grow. That's what United Next is all about.

DL will grow too, but we've absorbed most of the 50-seat RJs compared to our peers. Growth domestically will be measured. Opportunities will be international, but we split more flying with partners by choice, limiting mainline pilot growth. We are trying to get a foothold in airports that can sustain intl expansion (LAX/NYC/SEA/BOS). We can't catch United's scale IMO. I think we'll continue to hire and grow to not be dwarfed in scale by UA..but it will be quietly over time, just like how we got here today.

CRJCapitan

20k pilots is a much more realistic goal, which is more along the lines of what I have heard

Nantonaku

We went from around ~11,000 to 16,000 in less than 3 years. That isn’t exactly quiet growth. United has been aiming for a 20,000 pilot group for two decades now so it is hard to take their goals seriously. If anyone really thought they are going to be 28,000 pilots strong in 6.5 years then it is an easy decision. There are also probably about 5,000 Delta pilots that would be well served to make that jump. It would be an amazing ride.

You are right, at least they have stated goals. And they aren’t as high on the international outsourcing horse as Delta. And they have more attrition. And they have a bigger international footprint. I’d probably gamble and go to United.

saturn

11,000 to 15,000... that was restoring to pre-covid 14,600 or whatever. The last 1,000 is what I consider growth beyond our 2020 size. How big of a pilot size do we target for 2024, 2025, end of the decade? Just last year, I pressed and pressed for target seniority list size for this year, and never got straight answers. Only, " hiring 200 month". Certainly not 16k by summer, or 17k EOY'23. This past January was the first annual hiring goal I've heard, and it was just a casual comment by Bob in a Skyhub.

When I say quiet growth, I mean we don't market some bold long term goal, make splashy mega aircraft orders, announce ambitious growth to the media, etc. In the end, we might grow pretty aggressively, but we just make smaller close in orders of jets, delay aircraft retirements, hire hough numbers of pilots but without announcing future pilot hiring goals.

CRJCapitan

I think United is the way to go. United has hired relatively less, has plans to grow, has more diverse flying and has a base that (at 2.5 hours, kinda) works for you (if you want WB, you will likely be on reserve for years and you are outside of the SC window, so keep that in mind). How long would it take to get to NYC at Delta? Sounds like you would almost be better off commuting to ATL at that point.

That being said, we can't take growth plans of this magnitude at face value. 28,000 pilots? That would more than double United's size pre-covid. United, Delta and American are effectively the world's three largest carriers. If United grew to 28,000 pilots, it wouldn't be that far off from doubling the size of the world's second and third largest carriers (I think Delta and AA will both end up with around 17,000-17,500 pilots when this wave is over).

You have to ask yourself if this would make sense for United. Sure there is excess demand that is not being met at this time. That being said, it is the beginning of the summer and we are still riding the post-covid traveling wave. Does it make sense long term to be the world's largest airline by such a margin? Will travel demand support such an investment long term? What happens if travel demand doesn't support it and United is stuck paying off 700 new airplanes? These are questions management needs to answer, but it is fair for us to ask these questions. SK has touted "fleet flexibility," so there is no doubt these are factors management is considering as well.

My point is that these factors probably make the plan of 28k pilots extremely unlikely. That's fine. There are still plenty of things to be excited about. But I'd recommend you view the scenario as if United will settle on 18,000-20,000 pilots. If United gets to 28k, awesome. But at least you won't be making a decision viewing it as a foregone conclusion.

PilotJ3

28k pilots it’s the carrot to get bodies up te front door.

Those that doesn’t know the story…

Scot Kirby is doing the same thing he did in AA. Promise big things and under deliver every single time.

I don’t think UAL will grow massively. AA has now less pilots than us and have to keep up with big retirements. Age 67 will benefit AA the most, same as the Cares act did.

Tropical

United is the king of overpromising and underdelivering. They have a CEO who is desperate to show up his old bosses at American, and is spending money like a drunken sailor to do it. I don't know very many people who believe his lofty "United Next" plan will actually happen.

Very few airlines have furloughed twice in my career. United is one of them. They would have furloughed 3 times if Uncle Sugar hadn't bailed everyone out during corona. I really wouldn't trust their management to keep their promises, and they will be the first one to literally hire and then furlough the next day.

You see a lot of griping about Delta management here, but it's mostly petty day to day operational and personality stuff. I prefer their conservative growth plan and they have a proven track record of making money. When the next black swan comes along, they'll probably be in the best shape to withstand it. I don't think I can say that about United. Sure, you won't move up very fast here, and I think it's going to stay 5+ years to hold WB international as an FO, but it's a good job and a stable job, which is a lot for this industry.

Plabelover

how long do you think someone will be on reserve for?

PhilMcCrackin

Didnt SK admit that opening Vegas and MCO as well as the 200 airframe order was a way to attract more pilots?