Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
12-14-2023, 02:38 PM
#6351
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Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,630
yep. 2 months in 2023 is 400 numbers which is the same as 1 year of retirements.
Someone in an earlier thread was talking about the WBA wall falling to 2015 hires. Even if this holds true for 2025 upgrades, 10 years is a far cry from the 30+years todays new hires get to look forward to (I’ll be retired for 10+ years by then).
Someone in an earlier thread was talking about the WBA wall falling to 2015 hires. Even if this holds true for 2025 upgrades, 10 years is a far cry from the 30+years todays new hires get to look forward to (I’ll be retired for 10+ years by then).
12-14-2023, 02:57 PM
#6352
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 5,016
yep. 2 months in 2023 is 400 numbers which is the same as 1 year of retirements.
Someone in an earlier thread was talking about the WBA wall falling to 2015 hires. Even if this holds true for 2025 upgrades, 10 years is a far cry from the 30+years todays new hires get to look forward to (I’ll be retired for 10+ years by then).
Someone in an earlier thread was talking about the WBA wall falling to 2015 hires. Even if this holds true for 2025 upgrades, 10 years is a far cry from the 30+years todays new hires get to look forward to (I’ll be retired for 10+ years by then).
12-14-2023, 04:36 PM
#6354
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Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 3,149
Remember, no thought process goes into the mock bid. Crew Resources merely runs the bid based on posted vacancies. The actual bid factors in things like training churn/backlog and bypasses.
12-14-2023, 04:43 PM
#6355
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,807
The stickied post is locked, so I thought I'd update it here for the nov AE.
Nov AE Plug
WB A 449X, 26.8% (Note: Non NYC 330 plug 345X, 20.7%)
WB B 129XX, 77.4% (Note: 2 awards higher than plug was 117XX, 70.0%)
NB A 145XX, 87.0%
NB A is holding rock solid at 87%, for 5 AE's now. Also, when you toss out two statistcal outliers (in parenthesis above), this AE is very much in line with the recent trends bolded above: 1.) WB B, which has a mere 2 awards junior to the runing avarage, with huge gap of nearly 1000 numbeers in those last 2 awards. IOW, if that last award didn't happen, it would be right where the average has been 2.) NYC 330A, which had so dang many vacancies in a very unpopular base.
All that said, with future deliveries and some growth, I do think the WB A will drop below both historical and recent trends (don't call it a wall!
). 2007 hires can almost taste it. I'm still not sure 2014 hires will see WB A in the next 22 months, but I'm much less sure than I was a couple months/AE's ago. I'll say it again, I'd love to be wrong, and for Trip's optimism to bear fruit. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Nov AE Plug
WB A 449X, 26.8% (Note: Non NYC 330 plug 345X, 20.7%)
WB B 129XX, 77.4% (Note: 2 awards higher than plug was 117XX, 70.0%)
NB A 145XX, 87.0%
NB A is holding rock solid at 87%, for 5 AE's now. Also, when you toss out two statistcal outliers (in parenthesis above), this AE is very much in line with the recent trends bolded above: 1.) WB B, which has a mere 2 awards junior to the runing avarage, with huge gap of nearly 1000 numbeers in those last 2 awards. IOW, if that last award didn't happen, it would be right where the average has been 2.) NYC 330A, which had so dang many vacancies in a very unpopular base.
All that said, with future deliveries and some growth, I do think the WB A will drop below both historical and recent trends (don't call it a wall!
). 2007 hires can almost taste it. I'm still not sure 2014 hires will see WB A in the next 22 months, but I'm much less sure than I was a couple months/AE's ago. I'll say it again, I'd love to be wrong, and for Trip's optimism to bear fruit. A rising tide lifts all boats.Not yet, Trip. Not yet. 😉 I suspect we've seen the last big drop in Seniority for a time with this bid.
WB A 455X, 27.1% (Note: Non NYC 330 plug 405X, 24.1%)
WB B 146XX, 87.4%
NB A 146XX, 87.4%
NB A still holding rock solid at 87%, now for 6 AE's straight. WB A was pretty much in line with the NOV AE (both due to massive NYC 330A vacancies), dropping about another 60 numbers, but still more junior than any AE before Nov. The bigger movement, however, was in the non-NYC plug, which dropped more like 600 numbers. That could be a 'warning' sign of more juniority coming - which will definitly happen eventually if we have WB order (Delivery schedule is the key, which is unlikely in the next 20 months). Finally, the biggest news in this AE is the significant drop in WB B. It dropped nearly 3000 numbers (barring one statistical outlier from the NOV bid), which I suspect is a fluke, but we'll need to see more AE's to know if that's true. There were 88 WB B's awarded on 55 posted vacancies. The 55th award on this AE was at 116XX/70%, which is right in line where all prior AE's landed.
Congrats to all!
12-14-2023, 04:44 PM
#6356
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 845
The mock bid is quickly becoming as useless as the icrew page that allows you to see the number of senior bidders above you….
12-14-2023, 04:46 PM
#6357
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,807
But if you are more senior, or if you aren't moving at all, it's nice to get a peek at how many above you are biiding out, and how many below you are coming in. It's still jello though, as some of the bids have shown a pretty different result in some categories.
I hope they keep posting it.
12-14-2023, 04:47 PM
#6358
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Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,630
I think it gives you an idea, and unless you are just on the cusp of holding something it seems to be a good tool. The few categories I’ve looked at only changed by a few people.
12-14-2023, 05:00 PM
#6360
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,237
Yep, this is why our mock bid is useless compared to United's. I don't think their crew resources is allowed to massage the results like ours do. If they post positions they have to award them if there are bidders. Here crew resources can post 50 positions but decide to only award 25 of them.
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