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Old 12-04-2023, 11:00 AM
  #5981  
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Originally Posted by notEnuf
...and for less $. The answer is 0. Every 65 year old is one AME away from collecting on the couch. My guy already sees this as a problem and I have a while to go before it's an issue. He says basic med apps are way up.
Definitely not anywhere close to zero. There are a lot of guys who would want to keep flying because it's what they do. It's who they are. Thats why so many former 30 year legacy widebody captains end up flying some mid size bizjet well into their seventies. They can't bear the idea of not being a pilot anymore.
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Old 12-04-2023, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
I think you’re going to be sorely disappointed. There is very little support for age 67 within DALPA and the demographics of the pilot group do not support collective bargaining in favor of the 65-67 aged pilots. Collective being the operative verbiage.

Most of us aren’t against increasing the mandatory retirement age. We just want to see it accomplished scientifically. Studies should be conducted. Maybe the mandatory age should be 70? But how would we know without the data? What is being called for is akin to going flying without a flight plan and not checking any Wx or NOTAMs. We are pilots. We make fact-based decisions rooted in logic. The very premise of this whole argument is contrarian to that. And why now? Where were all of you when they were raising the retirement age to 65? Why weren’t you advocating for age 67 then?
Yeah, but its the US Congress. They don't care about any of that. Its a rider attached to the $$$. $$$ is what makes the DC machine go round and round. They'll pass it, make it law and really don't give two hoots how the sausage will be made.
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Old 12-04-2023, 11:09 AM
  #5983  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
​​​​​​I think it hits 5000 for sure. I'm going with 5200
5150.

Why not go with VanHagar?
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Old 12-04-2023, 11:17 AM
  #5984  
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5151

Always one more
You're never satisfied
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Old 12-04-2023, 12:16 PM
  #5985  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
Dec 4 AE memo out. 47 NY 330 A, 47 other WB A. 94 Total.

That NY 330 category is clearrly growing bigly, and based on the last AE, will likely drive the juniority of WB A down evern further.
Yep, I bet WB A goes into the mid 5000s with this one. Good movement for sure! No love for anything west of the Mississippi though 😔. Makes sense I suppose given the state of the Pacific, but pretty rough for us left coasters to see all but 9 of those wide body As go to the eastern time zone.
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Old 12-04-2023, 12:52 PM
  #5986  
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Originally Posted by Gunfighter
The last AE had 61 WB A with 35 in NYC and the plug dropped roughly 500 numbers.
While they posted 35 last month, they actually awarded 41 NYC330As due to contingent vacancies. I bet this AE pushes it over 50 after contingent vacancies are filled (which is just under 1/3 of the Jan '24 category size).
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Old 12-04-2023, 12:53 PM
  #5987  
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Originally Posted by m3113n1a1
That sounds plausible.. What about NB A? 14k?
That sounds about right. It’s been holding solid at 87% for several AE’s now. 145 NB A’s will swell with the movement created by 94 WBA’s. It might go a little deeper, but not past 14,500. Probably…
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Old 12-04-2023, 01:14 PM
  #5988  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
​​​​​​I think it hits 5000 for sure. I'm going with 5200
1 dollar Bob, you've all overbid. I have no idea really but there are a lot of NBAs around that number that are enjoying the holidays for the first time, they may want that to continue.
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Old 12-04-2023, 01:23 PM
  #5989  
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Originally Posted by Kangoala
Definitely not anywhere close to zero. There are a lot of guys who would want to keep flying because it's what they do. It's who they are. Thats why so many former 30 year legacy widebody captains end up flying some mid size bizjet well into their seventies. They can't bear the idea of not being a pilot anymore.
I guess, there are people who still us PBs as SUPP vaction days too. <1 is my new estimate. Somebody will down grade to NBA and find out how much work it is and tell the tribe. I'm not worried they flood the market, Delta will want to control the process, remember the last time we jammed the gears into reverse on the training department. The smart ones will finish the basic med process at 64 and 11 months and buy a twin Beech and head for the Caribbean to cash the checks.
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Old 12-04-2023, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
Yeah, but it’s the US Congress. They don't care about any of that. It’s a rider attached to the $$$. $$$ is what makes the DC machine go round and round. They'll pass it, make it law and really don't give two hoots how the sausage will be made.
Age 67, 69 etc is inevitable, but there are many factors going into this. No one truly knows what deals are being made. If it was that simple it would have been done already right? ALPA played the safety card, until it fell on deaf ears… I can only assume the companies are pressing the training cost card and the impact lack of even more crews in the short term due to lack of international flying… which is way more realistic than the safety BS ALPA tried to play.

Could it be implemented immediately? Could there be an ICAO provision attached? It’s easy for anyone to speculate and assume one day the nozzle is turned on… unlike last time, ICAO isn’t running with this idea, and the US is pushing this idea, where, if anything ICAO is opposed to it….until they aren’t.

Mongo
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