Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
11-14-2023, 02:18 PM
#5841
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Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,236
Instead of giving up ....ask for more. JMHO
11-14-2023, 02:30 PM
#5843
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Joined APC: Nov 2017
Position: NYC 7ERA
Posts: 2,054
Just noticed nobody got an award INTO the NYC-320A category.
Which is odd, because it's been chronically undermanned for as long as I've been there.
Which is odd, because it's been chronically undermanned for as long as I've been there.
11-14-2023, 02:43 PM
#5845
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,792
We've had 5 "Monthly" AE's now, so I thought I'd see if we have any trends forming. I looked at the plug WB A, WB B, and NB A, and did some math with the actual Seniority List number for each month (since we are adding 200+/month).
Here's the data: Raw numbers don't tell a full story, so I included percentage of total seniority list, which is a much better gauge ("time to hold" is a horrible gauge when hiring is crazy like it has been, especially considering hiring will slow down in about 6-7 months. Flt ops has said 200/month though the start of summer, then 100/month the rest of the 2024).
June AE Plug
WB A 25XX, 15.7%
WB B 86XX, 54.1%
NB A 134XX, 84.5%
July AE Plug
WB A 31XX, 19.5% (Excluding 1 MD)
WB B 103XX, 64.5%
NB A 138XX, 86.3%
Aug AE Plug
WB A 38XX, 23.5%
WB B 112XX,69.5%
NB A 141XX, 87.0%
Sep AE Plug
WB A 39XX, 23.8%
WB B 116XX, 70.5%
NB A 142XX, 86.9%
Oct AE Plug
WB A 39XX, 23.7%
WB B 114XX, 69.3%
NB A 145XX, 87.6%
Notes: Once again, virtually every single NH who wanted a base change got one. Said another way, the junior base change award was a higher seniority number than the size of the list on the 1st of that month... Also, the Mid-Bid results are consistently at a point slightly more junior to the final result. Also, For those not aware, the June AE was the first AE in 5 months, one of the longest AE droughts in a long time. As a result, that AE was a little more senior. Also, the June and July AE's closed the SEA 7ER base, which had a few statistical outliers I excluded.
Things seem to have settled down pretty close to the following numbers:
WB A 22 or 23% (last 3 AE's were exactly there)
WB B 69 of 70% (more variance here)
NB A 86 or 87% (very consistent here)
Not to say these trends won't shift over time, just thought it was interesting to see how things are trending. It is also interesting to see how NB A is a litte more junior that Pre-Covid norms, and WB B is a little more senior. At least, for now.
**Note: two of these numbers and one overall percentage have been corrected from original post correcting a mistake and a fat-finger**
Nov AE Plug
WB A 449X, 26.8% (Note: Non NYC 330 plug 345X, 20.7%)
WB B 129XX, 77.4% (Note: 2 awards higher than plug was 117XX, 70.0%)
NB A 145XX, 87.0%
NB A is holding rock solid at 87%, for 5 AE's now. Also, when you toss out two statistcal outliers (in parenthesis above), this AE is very much in line with the recent trends bolded above: 1.) WB B, which has a mere 2 awards junior to the runing avarage, with huge gap of nearly 1000 numbeers in those last 2 awards. IOW, if that last award didn't happen, it would be right where the average has been 2.) NYC 330A, which had so dang many vacancies in a very unpopular base.
All that said, with future deliveries and some growth, I do think the WB A will drop below both historical and recent trends (don't call it a wall!
). 2007 hires can almost taste it. I'm still not sure 2014 hires will see WB A in the next 22 months, but I'm much less sure than I was a couple months/AE's ago. I'll say it again, I'd love to be wrong, and for Trip's optimism to bear fruit. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Last edited by FangsF15; 11-14-2023 at 02:54 PM.
11-14-2023, 03:58 PM
#5846
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Joined APC: Oct 2017
Position: SnackBsktRaider
Posts: 233
11-14-2023, 04:25 PM
#5847
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Joined APC: Nov 2017
Position: NYC 7ERA
Posts: 2,054
I've been getting 2-5 GS calls a day and the occasional IA call and there's no reserves. It's going to be a blood bath over Thanksgiving because so many RES are GSing their way to the holiday off.
I can't believe they didn't fill a single NYC CA slot, especially with a bunch of us leaving.
I've already credited (well pay. not PWA defined credit) 140 hours for the month, with putting 6:27 in the bank. And they keep on calling.
I haven't flown GS1 but they didn't release me and the FO with pay (FO caught it, thank you to him) after we were assigned an illegal rotation so they paid us basically triple.. 79ish hour 4 day.
But no need to backfill.
Side note: I noted most of the guys bidding out are also the MEX SAQ crowd, so that's gonna be a money maker for anyone with the MEX qual after we leave.
11-14-2023, 05:38 PM
#5848
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Joined APC: Jul 2012
Posts: 101
Fangs is da real hero here.
11-14-2023, 05:47 PM
#5849
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,364
Yeah. I know a couple FOs that had NYC 320A bids in so it's not like they had any sort of lack of takers on it.
I've been getting 2-5 GS calls a day and the occasional IA call and there's no reserves. It's going to be a blood bath over Thanksgiving because so many RES are GSing their way to the holiday off.
I can't believe they didn't fill a single NYC CA slot, especially with a bunch of us leaving.
I've already credited (well pay. not PWA defined credit) 140 hours for the month, with putting 6:27 in the bank. And they keep on calling.
I haven't flown GS1 but they didn't release me and the FO with pay (FO caught it, thank you to him) after we were assigned an illegal rotation so they paid us basically triple.. 79ish hour 4 day.
But no need to backfill.
Side note: I noted most of the guys bidding out are also the MEX SAQ crowd, so that's gonna be a money maker for anyone with the MEX qual after we leave.
I've been getting 2-5 GS calls a day and the occasional IA call and there's no reserves. It's going to be a blood bath over Thanksgiving because so many RES are GSing their way to the holiday off.
I can't believe they didn't fill a single NYC CA slot, especially with a bunch of us leaving.
I've already credited (well pay. not PWA defined credit) 140 hours for the month, with putting 6:27 in the bank. And they keep on calling.
I haven't flown GS1 but they didn't release me and the FO with pay (FO caught it, thank you to him) after we were assigned an illegal rotation so they paid us basically triple.. 79ish hour 4 day.
But no need to backfill.
Side note: I noted most of the guys bidding out are also the MEX SAQ crowd, so that's gonna be a money maker for anyone with the MEX qual after we leave.
Now there’s actually around 180ish in the line, everyone else is in training. If they would make MEX trips commutable, I would get qual.
Last edited by PilotJ3; 11-14-2023 at 06:18 PM.
11-14-2023, 05:58 PM
#5850
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2017
Position: NYC 7ERA
Posts: 2,054
0830 sign in 2130 release 11 hour 2 day is better. Less legs too.
I used to make a 6 day MEX trip out of swap with pot to get JFK-MEX-JFK(pad)JFK-MEX-JFK(pad)JFK-MEX-JFK
You'd have legal buffers, but if you left MEX late, which was not uncommon, you'd go illegal for the next day, get 4F1Rd off and then if it was the last of the three, just go home. If it was the middle, fish for a greenie or bag an easy WS turn.
Personal best: Me and a ER Captain, now retired, we got bought off our middle because we got in 1 hour late, then both got it with a 2 hour later report and 22 hour layover as a GS. Which then got back late, and we got bought off the third one. Flew 2, paid for 4.
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