Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
11-06-2023, 12:20 PM
#5741
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,630
also obligatory disclaimer it’s a leap year and that seems to screw everything up in flight ops.
11-06-2023, 12:22 PM
#5742
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,630
You can use my screen name, it's ok and does not bother me. I own what I write here. Flex asked a question, I answered. Telling Flex he can't ask a question is kind of BS in my opinion. I didn't say that my answer was absolute, just my best guess at what would be IF we were to park aircraft. Flex can take it or leave it. Not sure why you have to be so nasty about it.
I maintain that there is a major downturn heading our way. How much it affects us is anyone's guess. My guess is we take a pretty good hit in the airline industry. We always do at these downturns. Yes, I believe the bottom third will be either UNA'd or furloughed or some variation on the theme. Remember we got "what's a SIL" in charge.
I maintain that there is a major downturn heading our way. How much it affects us is anyone's guess. My guess is we take a pretty good hit in the airline industry. We always do at these downturns. Yes, I believe the bottom third will be either UNA'd or furloughed or some variation on the theme. Remember we got "what's a SIL" in charge.
11-06-2023, 12:56 PM
#5743
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 3,149
correct, however if your going to a full course training and not just a base trade or short course, there is a good chance you won’t convert til March 2nd, since your checkride would have to be scheduled to happen by Feb 15th. But if it’s a big deal it might be worth waiting til the next AE.
11-06-2023, 01:01 PM
#5744
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,630
Minor point but I believe a 44X event that occurs on or before the 16th is what triggers a conversion for the beginning of that bid period. After the 16th gets you converted in the following bid period...and, in the case of a Feb 17th or later 44X, would allow you to bid vaycay for the 2024-2025 year in your current category at your current seniority. (See 22.E.6)
11-06-2023, 04:21 PM
#5747
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2023
Posts: 1,511
You're looking at per capita. Let's not forget going in to the chy nah flu we had ~12000 on the list. EB said we'd come out with 7000. Look at what we furloughed from 1999-2013. Look at TWA, Eastern Piedmont (back when they flew the 73), Peoples express, even UNited. Look before and after the SLI with NWA. It was pretty close. Again, my comments are speculation. But where I'm at I have insight to the loads and some of networks plans. 16000+ pilots, I can see ~5500 being parked given a downturn of less than chy nah flu. We'll see.
Last edited by Hotel Kilo; 11-06-2023 at 04:54 PM.
11-06-2023, 04:58 PM
#5748
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2023
Posts: 31
I've been internally debating for a little while and I'd thought I'd get the thoughts of the collective:
I'm a recent new hire slated to go to the 220 in NYC. I'm going to be a commuter out of OMA for about 6 years, until my youngest graduates high school. My conundrum is stay with NYC or switch to SLC.
As far as a nonstop commute goes, there's 3 RJs/day (+2 AA RJs) to LGA and only 2 RJs/day to SLC. Add in the fact that I'll have to cover three airports in NYC, the commute could get messy quick. On the plus side for SLC is covering only one airport and it's an hour behind me.
The final consideration is seniority, which will rise quicker in NYC, maybe even to the point of being able to hold a line after OE.
So, am I missing something? Any other factors I should consider? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
I'm a recent new hire slated to go to the 220 in NYC. I'm going to be a commuter out of OMA for about 6 years, until my youngest graduates high school. My conundrum is stay with NYC or switch to SLC.
As far as a nonstop commute goes, there's 3 RJs/day (+2 AA RJs) to LGA and only 2 RJs/day to SLC. Add in the fact that I'll have to cover three airports in NYC, the commute could get messy quick. On the plus side for SLC is covering only one airport and it's an hour behind me.
The final consideration is seniority, which will rise quicker in NYC, maybe even to the point of being able to hold a line after OE.
So, am I missing something? Any other factors I should consider? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
11-06-2023, 05:17 PM
#5749
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,630
You're looking at per capita. Let's not forget going in to the chy nah flu we had ~12000 on the list. EB said we'd come out with 7000. Look at what we furloughed from 1999-2013. Look at TWA, Eastern Piedmont (back when they flew the 73), Peoples express, even UNited. Look before and after the SLI with NWA. It was pretty close. Again, my comments are speculation. But where I'm at I have insight to the loads and some of networks plans. 16000+ pilots, I can see ~5500 being parked given a downturn of less than chy nah flu. We'll see.
United furloughed less than 20% after 9/11 and they had the double whammy of SARS 1.0 in Asia at the same time.
eastern liquidated, when in the last 40 years did any of the others furlough 1/3 of their list.
DL during Covid was either 18% or 15% depending on which numbers you use. (2558/~14500 or 1941/~12500)
5500 would be almost double what Covid would have caused before the VEOP. (2558 got warn notices and we had 14,700 when hiring stopped)
if network is so convinced we are going to furlough 60% of our NB FOs, why on earth are we continuing to hire 200/month
you are out to lunch on 33% for anything short of the Great Depression 2.0.
Last edited by Gone Flying; 11-06-2023 at 05:30 PM.
11-06-2023, 05:17 PM
#5750
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2014
Posts: 889
I've been internally debating for a little while and I'd thought I'd get the thoughts of the collective:
I'm a recent new hire slated to go to the 220 in NYC. I'm going to be a commuter out of OMA for about 6 years, until my youngest graduates high school. My conundrum is stay with NYC or switch to SLC.
As far as a nonstop commute goes, there's 3 RJs/day (+2 AA RJs) to LGA and only 2 RJs/day to SLC. Add in the fact that I'll have to cover three airports in NYC, the commute could get messy quick. On the plus side for SLC is covering only one airport and it's an hour behind me.
The final consideration is seniority, which will rise quicker in NYC, maybe even to the point of being able to hold a line after OE.
So, am I missing something? Any other factors I should consider? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
I'm a recent new hire slated to go to the 220 in NYC. I'm going to be a commuter out of OMA for about 6 years, until my youngest graduates high school. My conundrum is stay with NYC or switch to SLC.
As far as a nonstop commute goes, there's 3 RJs/day (+2 AA RJs) to LGA and only 2 RJs/day to SLC. Add in the fact that I'll have to cover three airports in NYC, the commute could get messy quick. On the plus side for SLC is covering only one airport and it's an hour behind me.
The final consideration is seniority, which will rise quicker in NYC, maybe even to the point of being able to hold a line after OE.
So, am I missing something? Any other factors I should consider? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Good news is you can switch to MSP 737/320 after only a year seat lock.
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