Trip7

You're thinking way too deep into the word Wall😂. It's just a lighthearted phrase and most people get the point

​​​​​​330A will drop to 5000 soon. Significant growth happening on the WB fleets and with growth comes surprises. 5 years ago nobody would have believed folks in their 20s would be in command of a Delta 767 across the tracks. Crazy times in the industry. We went from tuna fish and Kool-aid at the regionals to AA trying to poach UPS/FedEx junior pilots for 1 milly over 3 years

FL370esq

While I agree with you that NYC330A will likely hit 5000 on the posted AE (if they award all of the posted and contingent vacancies), I don't think any of this is a surprise...it's merely common sense. If the company buys more airplanes, the company needs more pilots to fly those airplanes. That is why there are 35 NYC330As posted and why we now have a nearly 17,000 pilot seniority list. It isn't a "wall" that is falling but rather an escalator powered by WB growth that was given a huge lurch upward from the VEOP. Now, if we had a 12,000 pilot seniority list, no VEOP, minimal WB purchases and 330A was still an option for someone in the top 30%, then I would say "a wall has fallen" as far as WB Captain positions and that there was some sort of demographic shift

The ER is a whole other issue, especially because it is anything but a growing fleet. I believe the "juniority" is merely a reflection of how unappealing the rotations are overall which drives more senior pilots to stay in the right seat for QoL because, to them, the pay rate increase to move to the left seat isn't worth the hit to QoL. That is evident on all fleets and why you see area code seniority FOs on the WB categories. (That or a manifested fear of command &#128513

When the economy slows, hiring will slow/stop and things will start to look a bit more normal until the next uptick. Even the stairs of an escalator have to come down at some point.

FangsF15

I made my case for why using the word “wall” for a 2007/2014 hire holding anything is (unintentionally) misleading.

I do agree we may see some surprises with 35 WB A vacancies in an otherwise junior base. I hope you are right! I just think it’s premature.

Buck Rogers

Not arguing , but my take on the impact of the VEOP today is effectively minimal. I would guess that greater than 90% of the pilots who took the VEOP would be gone as of today due to age 65 and/or historic early departures and LTD. I think the the VEOP was more of a moving walkway, as opposed to an escalator. The bigger "escalator", IMO, is the pay banding of this last contract.

marcal

Don’t forget all the 6-day trips as well!

Gunfighter

Half as many commutes and broken 4 days with a DH day. It's a commuter's dream. Junior bidders shlould be worried about a winter shift to domestic flying like we've seen some years on the 765. As the fleet grows it will likely pick up some of the transcons.
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GogglesPisano

Constant layovers in AMS and CDG. Commutable 6-day trips. A real rest facility vs a homeless encampment. Why would anyone seriously contemplate this (especially if you’re senior to 4900?)

4 legs/day with 12 hr layovers at the airport Holiday Inn are obviously far superior. Especially with a 0500 sign in.

Obviously.

Hotel Kilo

The real question is how many of those <3000 folks on the "If its not Boeing, I'm not going" team will make the jump from left seat of the ER/765 to the left seat of the 330/350. Trips wall fails to account for that dynamic. I guess we'll see when the results are published. I know if I were a <3000 ER or 765 A, I'd be bidding to the 330. They should not fear the transition. the bus is an very easy plane to operate. It was designed for 3rd world country pilots to fly. Plus it has the tray table which is the bomb for long haul flying.

Fastpilot

Depends on how much time they have left. If only a few years, why make the jump? If you’re 30 years into your career I’m sure you’re much more concerned about maximizing your retirement than getting a better layover. 7ER to 765 is kind of a no brainer, especially with the pay band. 765 to 330/350 would be scratching my head unless they have a long way to go until retirement. Yea I know the plan (for now) is to be an all airbus widebody fleet but if you only have a few years left and you’ve been flying Boeing for the last few decades, I think you’ll be safe retiring on the 765. 7ER to 330/350 makes a hell of a lot more sense than 765 to 330/350

GogglesPisano

I don't see an ROI for transitioning from 765 to 330.