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Old 11-03-2023, 03:09 PM
  #5671  
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Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
Ok, I'm in the WB fleet, and I'm curious what you mean by "WB fleet will be significantly larger" Those orders on book in 2025 are replacements, not growth aircraft. Please elaborate your thesis here.
How sure are you? Because we have more WB aircraft today than we did in Dec 2019
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Old 11-03-2023, 03:15 PM
  #5672  
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Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
Ok, I'm in the WB fleet, and I'm curious what you mean by "WB fleet will be significantly larger" Those orders on book in 2025 are replacements, not growth aircraft. Please elaborate your thesis here.
some of them are replacements, but based on what has been said, the 350s and some of the 330s are growth.

even if they are all replacements, they are replacing aircraft that are not at the highest rate, and thus creating more CA slots that pay the WB rates.
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Old 11-03-2023, 04:10 PM
  #5673  
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Originally Posted by Scooter432
I tend to agree. 4700-4800ish. With another order around the corner for WB, it will be on the doorsteps of 14/15 hires.
has 330/350A hit 2007 hires yet?
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Old 11-03-2023, 04:23 PM
  #5674  
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Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
Ok, I'm in the WB fleet, and I'm curious what you mean by "WB fleet will be significantly larger" Those orders on book in 2025 are replacements, not growth aircraft. Please elaborate your thesis here.
Aren’t you the king of the ER will live forever?? If we parked EVERY ER in the next 4 years we will still have approx the same number of widebodies (ER included) that we had in 2019. I am guessing we will still have 25ish ERs running around at the end of 2027. We had about 30 jets paying top scale in 2019. That number will probably be in the 150 or more range by the end of 27.

Last edited by Jonny Drama; 11-03-2023 at 04:38 PM.
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Old 11-03-2023, 04:40 PM
  #5675  
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Originally Posted by Milksheikh
has 330/350A hit 2007 hires yet?
no. About 800 numbers from the first 2007 PMDL hire.
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Old 11-03-2023, 04:44 PM
  #5676  
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Originally Posted by Milksheikh
has 330/350A hit 2007 hires yet?
About 800 away for A330 and 1300-1400 away for A350 Capt for the very first of the 2007 hires.
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Old 11-03-2023, 07:52 PM
  #5677  
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Originally Posted by tennisguru
I think overall seniority percentage is the only proper way to judge a "wall". A 4000 number seniority pilot today is not the same as a 4000 number pilot when we had 10k pilots. Given how WBA has been in the ~23% range, I'd call hitting 25% to be a mini-wall. Consistently hitting 30%, probably more like 33% as a nice 1/3 number, to be a real wall falling showing true growth in WBA positions.
100% agree with the % scale as the most valid metric. Really the only way to apples-apples compare different eras.
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Old 11-04-2023, 08:33 AM
  #5678  
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Originally Posted by tcco94
You’re right. Hiring will screech to a halt in 2 months. Huge displacement bid Q1 2024.
Probably more like Q3 2024 through Q1 2025. All the global chess pieces are falling into place for the next big one to hit. And it's gonna be a doozy.

Hope you planned well.
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Old 11-04-2023, 09:00 AM
  #5679  
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Originally Posted by Nick Bradshaw

...Hope you planned well.
Nice veiled attempt at gaining sympathy for your past grievances. Also, that the sky is falling...
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Old 11-04-2023, 09:04 AM
  #5680  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
Nice veiled attempt at gaining sympathy for your past grievances. Also, that the sky is falling...
I love that the corollary to it is that young people should plan well…while Nick insists they could not have planned for the misfortune visited upon them
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