Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
11-03-2023, 07:48 AM
#5654
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,792
Again, just so we are clear, "the wall" is... what? What is your definition? A 2008 Hire? A 2014 Hire? A 4000 seniority number? A 5000 Seniority number? Something else?
Obviously, a 2008/2014 hire has 100% chance of eventually bidding WB A. That's not a "wall falling", that's just how time works. It's expected.
I will also add, one lucky bidder does not a "fallen wall" make. Exactly like how "the wall fell" for WB B to NH's, for a very short time, only to be completely 'rebuilt' to original specs. I would argue that wasn't any kind of "wall" falling at all, it was simply a confluence of a very bizarre moment in time and seat locks. We will never see the WB B "fall" to a NH again, barring a WW3 type event.
IMO, in order for any "wall" to fall, there has to be a new, permanent shift in bidding. Like how the ER used to be the crown jewel of non-pure-international flying. 7ER A used to take nearly 20 years to hold. But it is now just another 'domestic' category with a few extra perks in the bid packet (sorry if that offends anyone, but you can't deny bidding behavior has permananly changed). The ER A "wall" has indeed fallen. Permanantly. When we take delivery of new WB's as a 767-300 replacement, and if we really do grow the international side of the airline, I can see some kind of further "wall" falling. But to take any kind of credit for it, you've got to define what you mean by "wall" ahead of time.
(And to be fair, I do note that you did specifically posit a 2014 hire getting WB A by Sept 22nd 2025" here. I respectfully disagree WB A will drop to a 5000+ seniority number in that timeframe, but I do commend you for being bold and very specific there. And I'd be delighted to be proven wrong
).
Note: hyperlink only works on desktop version for some reason
Obviously, a 2008/2014 hire has 100% chance of eventually bidding WB A. That's not a "wall falling", that's just how time works. It's expected.
I will also add, one lucky bidder does not a "fallen wall" make. Exactly like how "the wall fell" for WB B to NH's, for a very short time, only to be completely 'rebuilt' to original specs. I would argue that wasn't any kind of "wall" falling at all, it was simply a confluence of a very bizarre moment in time and seat locks. We will never see the WB B "fall" to a NH again, barring a WW3 type event.
IMO, in order for any "wall" to fall, there has to be a new, permanent shift in bidding. Like how the ER used to be the crown jewel of non-pure-international flying. 7ER A used to take nearly 20 years to hold. But it is now just another 'domestic' category with a few extra perks in the bid packet (sorry if that offends anyone, but you can't deny bidding behavior has permananly changed). The ER A "wall" has indeed fallen. Permanantly. When we take delivery of new WB's as a 767-300 replacement, and if we really do grow the international side of the airline, I can see some kind of further "wall" falling. But to take any kind of credit for it, you've got to define what you mean by "wall" ahead of time.
(And to be fair, I do note that you did specifically posit a 2014 hire getting WB A by Sept 22nd 2025" here. I respectfully disagree WB A will drop to a 5000+ seniority number in that timeframe, but I do commend you for being bold and very specific there. And I'd be delighted to be proven wrong
).Note: hyperlink only works on desktop version for some reason
Last edited by FangsF15; 11-03-2023 at 08:30 AM. Reason: added note about hyperlink.
11-03-2023, 08:50 AM
#5656
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Scratching my head in the right seat of a Douglas product
Posts: 239
Again, just so we are clear, "the wall" is... what? What is your definition? A 2008 Hire? A 2014 Hire? A 4000 seniority number? A 5000 Seniority number? Something else?
Obviously, a 2008/2014 hire has 100% chance of eventually bidding WB A. That's not a "wall falling", that's just how time works. It's expected.
I will also add, one lucky bidder does not a "fallen wall" make. Exactly like how "the wall fell" for WB B to NH's, for a very short time, only to be completely 'rebuilt' to original specs. I would argue that wasn't any kind of "wall" falling at all, it was simply a confluence of a very bizarre moment in time and seat locks. We will never see the WB B "fall" to a NH again, barring a WW3 type event.
IMO, in order for any "wall" to fall, there has to be a new, permanent shift in bidding. Like how the ER used to be the crown jewel of non-pure-international flying. 7ER A used to take nearly 20 years to hold. But it is now just another 'domestic' category with a few extra perks in the bid packet (sorry if that offends anyone, but you can't deny bidding behavior has permananly changed). The ER A "wall" has indeed fallen. Permanantly. When we take delivery of new WB's as a 767-300 replacement, and if we really do grow the international side of the airline, I can see some kind of further "wall" falling. But to take any kind of credit for it, you've got to define what you mean by "wall" ahead of time.
(And to be fair, I do note that you did specifically posit a 2014 hire getting WB A by Sept 22nd 2025" here. I respectfully disagree WB A will drop to a 5000+ seniority number in that timeframe, but I do commend you for being bold and very specific there. And I'd be delighted to be proven wrong).
Note: hyperlink only works on desktop version for some reason
Obviously, a 2008/2014 hire has 100% chance of eventually bidding WB A. That's not a "wall falling", that's just how time works. It's expected.
I will also add, one lucky bidder does not a "fallen wall" make. Exactly like how "the wall fell" for WB B to NH's, for a very short time, only to be completely 'rebuilt' to original specs. I would argue that wasn't any kind of "wall" falling at all, it was simply a confluence of a very bizarre moment in time and seat locks. We will never see the WB B "fall" to a NH again, barring a WW3 type event.
IMO, in order for any "wall" to fall, there has to be a new, permanent shift in bidding. Like how the ER used to be the crown jewel of non-pure-international flying. 7ER A used to take nearly 20 years to hold. But it is now just another 'domestic' category with a few extra perks in the bid packet (sorry if that offends anyone, but you can't deny bidding behavior has permananly changed). The ER A "wall" has indeed fallen. Permanantly. When we take delivery of new WB's as a 767-300 replacement, and if we really do grow the international side of the airline, I can see some kind of further "wall" falling. But to take any kind of credit for it, you've got to define what you mean by "wall" ahead of time.
(And to be fair, I do note that you did specifically posit a 2014 hire getting WB A by Sept 22nd 2025" here. I respectfully disagree WB A will drop to a 5000+ seniority number in that timeframe, but I do commend you for being bold and very specific there. And I'd be delighted to be proven wrong
).Note: hyperlink only works on desktop version for some reason
edited
Last edited by Jonny Drama; 11-03-2023 at 09:16 AM.
11-03-2023, 09:27 AM
#5657
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,626
They still only get 1 “MOAB” per year.
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