tcco94

800 a year?? When was that supposed to happen

blue vortex

Oh God, I hope you can make it to Captain “hold-every-day-off” before the fictitious stand-still happens in 2030. Not for your sake mind you, but for the sanity of everybody else on this forum.

Gone Flying

this year before the VEOP.

FangsF15

Its true. The last several years would have been in that vicinity until the VEOP, basically lopped the top off that bump and leveled the decade at around 500/year, give or take.

PilotJ3

Hockeypilot problem is called seniority compression. When there’s a moment your seniority will be slower progressing since most around you are the same age/group. He being hired so young will feel it maybe a tad longer. Same was those hired in the late 20s-early 30s last couple of years. Once everyone above you are the same age, they will feel stuck.

VeOP moved everyone in the list 2yrs up, but because of COVID, we feel that we haven’t moved much, since we have all the pain of growing back the airline pre COVID.

StayFrosty

Hi braintrust…with this current Oct AE and the amount of WB A openings now and called for in the next few AE’s, how do you think this will drive NB A movement, specially for the 73N and 320? I’m hopeful this will create secondary A awards on those fleets driving it more junior. What are your thoughts? I’m still a bit of a ways away but remain hopeful. Do want to mention I’m extremely thankful for being here and very happy in my current seat (QOL has been greater for me as a newbie than I ever had before at my previous employer), but hope remains to slide left sooner rather than later. May we continue to live in exciting and interesting times. 🥃

myrkridia

In short, WBA slots drive movement everywhere. What happens with NBA though is many have conditions in their AE bid until they reach a certain percentage, rather than be the plug ASAP. Your guess is as good as anyone's but with monthly AEs we will be able to extract more reliable trends for predictions.

FangsF15

It will drive movement for sure, with lots of secondary (and tertiary, and …) vacancies awarded. But generally I don’t think we’ll see much different seniority for NB A than recent AE’s overall. IOW, we won’t see 6 month captain awards. Training will be done after the holidays, so there will be a not-small number who sat out the last few AE’s who will make a move.

I would expect there to be a slow march forward for everyone as monthly AE’s drive small incremental changes, which over the year will add up. As you mention, the next few bids will (supposedly) have more WB A’s, which will continue to drive relatively junior awards. Once hiring does slow to a new steady-state, that will likely drive things more senior.

It gets said frequently, but always bears repeating. BWYWWWYB. You cannot get the award if you don’t have the bid in. Dream big, use qualifiers if desired, but temper expectations if the gap is still moderate to reach your seniority.

PilotWombat

These were the mandatory retirements from the Jan 2020 list vs. the Jan 2023 list. The numbers in parenthesis are how much the junior pilot on the Jan 2020 list moved up each year, ie, actual number of people who retired or otherwise were removed from the list senior to him:

2020: 505 / (2105)
2021: 702 / (487)
2022: 783 / (443)
2023: 760 / 414
2024: 772 / 511
2025: 704 / 544
2026: 603 / 524
2027: 509 / 469
2028: 507 / 485
2029: 520 / 512
2030: 555 / 552

So 800 was a little bit of an overshoot, but not by much. AA had a few years with more than that, for sure.

tcco94

Wow had no idea our list was going into 700’s. I thought it was 600 tops